The first season with Russell Wilson as the quarterback of the Denver Broncos was an unqualified disaster. In his first 13 games prior to the firing of head coach Nathaniel Hackett, Wilson was responsible for just 13 touchdowns – 12 passing, one rushing.
In the first year of a five-year, $242.6 million contract, Wilson was one of the most expensive busts in NFL history. However, the Walton-Penner ownership group isn’t shy about throwing money around. The organization hired venerable head coach Sean Payton, who promptly brought in key members of old coaching staff from the Saints and immediately began laying down the law about changing the culture.
The primary problem with Wilson last year was his inaccuracy, which had never been an issue in Seattle. It seemed like Wilson was mailing it in some weeks and that wasn’t lost on his teammates, who expressed displeasure that Wilson wasn’t as angry as he should have been about his failure.
Will the coaching change turn things around? Payton enjoyed consistent long-term success with Drew Brees, a quarterback with similar traits to Wilson – an undersized, quick-release, timing-based passer. With longtime Peyton running buddy Joe Lombardi on board as offensive coordinator, the 2023 Broncos offense is going to look familiar to the Saints teams of the Brees era, with Peyton vowing to play-call to Wilson’s strengths.
The Broncos have the requisite weapons to be an explosive offense, with Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick at wide receiver, Greg Dulcich at tight end, and the combination of Javonte Williams (if he has fully recovered from a devastating knee injury) and Samaje Perine. Throw in that the Broncos offensive line was decimated by injuries last season (since upgraded), if the key offensive players can stay healthy, there is no reason not to believe that Wilson can have a rebound season and start earning the money he signed for last year.
Fantasy football outlook
Wilson has been one of the most consistent fantasy quarterbacks in the league and for years was viewed as a backend QB1 who started many more weeks than he didn’t in fantasy lineups. That was before last year’s disastrous season in which Wilson often looked lost and disinterested.
Wilson has taken the offseason seriously, working hard to get himself ready for the start of training camp to take command of the offense. Peyton and his successful coaching pedigree has the Broncos in “win-now” mode, and Wilson will be critical to getting the franchise its first winning season since 2017.
Thanks to last year’s brutal season, Wilson has dropped all the way to the bottom of the quarterbacks in the QB2 tier – checking in at approximately No. 18. What that ranking does is make Wilson a backup fantasy quarterback to someone like Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow. In that case, he comes with very little risk. The question now is whether you would rather have Wilson or someone like Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff or injured Kyler Murray.
Personally, I like the fantasy upside of both Goff and Stafford more as a fantasy QB2, so I wouldn’t take a risk on Wilson and will let someone else have him. If you’re a proponent of Payton and expect a Wilson rebound as a result, drafting him as a QB to behind a guy you rarely will sit has merit.
