It’s really past the point of the 2023 NFL season in which we learn a lot of new things about core player utilization, but the ebbs and flows of injuries as we cross the midpoint of the year spices up the way teams divide their available plays.
In Week 9, we saw another strong utilization share for an upstart rookie tight end and an injury-replacement running back leading the league in opportunities after recovering from an ankle issue of his own. A star Green Bay Packer finally returned to form, and the 2021 rushing champ separated himself from a multi-week slump.
Among the most utilized running backs, familiar faces decorated the list. Only four receivers entering Monday night posted at least 10 targets, and three of whom are fantasy superstars. The most targeted group of wideouts this week also was a star-studded cast.
After a rather wild start to the season, competitive fantasy rosters are starting to shore up postseason spots. While being able to rely on your studs takes a lot of pressure off owners trying to navigate bye weeks, let’s see what we can unearth from unheralded players and some of the more precarious situations across the league.
7
TE Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
A target count of eight, seven and 11 over the last three games, respectively, is among the strongest share for any player at the position in that time. Kincaid was arguably the most gifted receiving tight end of April’s rookie class, and he has shown unfamiliar gamers exactly why he entered the NFL held in such high esteem. Having Dawson Knox (wrist) on the shelf has allowed Kincaid to dominate the positional looks, and he has effectively moved into the WR2 role for Josh Allen in a passing game that has historically supported three fantasy receivers more often than not. With Buffalo’s defense being ravaged by injuries, Knox out indefinitely, and wide receiver Gabe Davis an inconsistent outlet, Kincaid should maintain an elite target count from week to week.
6
TE Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Otton’s strong Week 9 showing of 6-70-2 over nine targets will catch attention on the waiver wire, especially in a week with Travis Kelce on bye, but it wasn’t exactly a blip from a utilization perspective. Otton was looked to six times in each the prior two games after eight targets going his way in the previous three contests combined. Now, it’s important to highlight he didn’t do squat with the dozen Week 7 and 8 opportunities, so Otton’s recent uptick in looks doesn’t make him a lock, but breaking through vs. Houston is a quality development in his growth. Expect inconsistent, matchup-driven returns the rest of the way.
5
Indianapolis Colts running backs
Short and sweet: We’ve been including the Colts in this space for several weeks now, and the consistent question was how long would it take before Zack Moss was forced to take a backseat to Jonathan Taylor. Well, it finally happened in Week 9, and the disparity in utilization was dramatic. Moss was utilized only seven times — by far the lowest of his season — and Taylor was the workhorse we grew accustomed to relying on prior to 2023. The latter finished with 18 attempts and five receptions, both of which tied season-high marks, and his 23 utilizations is on par with his average over the past two years. Retain Moss as long as you can in the event of injury, but he’s no longer a desirable lineup option even when forced to start him.
4
RB Antonio Gibson, Washington Commanders
In the past two weeks, we’ve seen Gibson rise from the dead to draw exactly five targets and as many catches in each of the last two contests. Ten targets in those games is a noticeable increase from his 11 total over the prior five outings combined, and the former collegiate receiver is carving out enough of a role to warrant attention for PPR leaguers combating bye weeks or injuries. His floor in four of the last five games is 8.6 PPR returns, which is not ideal but is serviceable in a pinch, especially in a week in which several studly options are on vacation.
3
New England Patriots' target pecking order
For starters, this is a low-volume passing game, and that isn’t likely to change in 2023. The weapons aren’t good enough, the offensive line is shaky, and the quarterback doesn’t have what it takes to put the offense on his back. However, that doesn’t mean New England is entirely devoid of receiving options. Since Kendrick Bourne — the lone useful guy — was lost for the year in Week 8, and JuJu Smith-Schuster returned to the field in that game for a one-catch, one-TD day. The connection between he and Mac Jones hadn’t been there, but we saw signs of life in Week 9 with seven targets. However, rookie Demario Douglas‘ eight utilizations led the receiving corps. He tied Smith-Schuster’s seven targets, and this marks consecutive appearances in which Douglas paced the Pats through the sky. WRs Jalen Reagor and Tyquan Thornton combined for 10 targets but also just two receptions between the pair. The situation is fluid, but the short-term takeaway favors Douglas’ continued growth. We know who Smith-Schuster is at this stage of his career, and it hasn’t translated well to fantasy in far better situations than this one for some time now.
2
Houston Texans wide receivers
Wide receiver Robert Woods may have lost his role to Noah Brown after the former Dallas wideout hauled in all six targets for 153 yards and a score — explosive production the well-aged Woods just cannot replicate at this point in his career. For as strong of a day Brown enjoyed, he’s not even the star of Week 9. Rookie Tank Dell dropped a nuke on Tampa Bay with a 6-114-2 line on 13 utilizations, which included two rushing attempts. He flashed some of his big-play skills earlier in the year and should be inconsistently productive. Nico Collins has fallen off a good deal since breaking through during the first month of play, though his Week 9 score and five-target floor in the last three games offers some hope for a regular role. All of that doesn’t even touch on the recent ascension from TE Dalton Schultz after a quiet start to his Houston tenure. Expect greater weekly fluctuation from Dell and Brown than Collins, whose ceiling is lower but floor is more reliable.
1
Baltimore Ravens running backs
With the scoreboard showing a 23-3 lead for the Ravens with 29 seconds left in the third quarter, rookie Keaton Mitchell housed one of his nine attempts on a 40-yard jaunt. He’d finish the day with 10 total utilizations, which doubled Gus Edwards and fell four shy of Justice Hill‘s 13-carry, one-target day. On fewer touches, Edwards was over four times more productive than Hill, and Mitchell was good for greater than 5x the returns in fantasy. This backfield is maddening, particularly so after we saw Edwards finally start to pull away with a clear lead entering Week 9. The veteran simply does not bring explosiveness to this offense, and look for the rookie to have a substantial role as long as Baltimore feels they can get this out of Mitchell. The problem with Edwards’ profile is touchdown dependency. He scored 17.2 points in PPR on just five attempts as two were TDs. Mitchell is the hot hand, and momentum is important, so expect the Ravens to lean his direction at the expense of Edwards between the 20s but also Hill in a general role.
