Fantasy football is driven by data, and reviewing key utilization statistics even from “Bye-pocalypse” Week 7.
Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs leads the position in utilizations at 157, just one more than Jacksonville’s Travis Etienne. The latter has seen his work around the stripe increase of late, and his fantasy value hasn’t been stronger as a result. Meanwhile, Jacobs has struggled to matter most weeks.
Puka Nacua still leads the way for receivers with 84 targets, six ahead of Stefon Diggs. Aside from Nacua’s well-documented meteoric rise, no one really stands out from the first 10 receivers. Then we start seeing a bunch of surprise inclusions among the most targeted, such as Arizona’s Marquise Brown (61), Adam Thielen (60), Zay Flowers (60), Jakobi Meyers (57), and Christian Kirk (57) filling out the 11-15 slots, respectively. Among that group, Meyers has to be considered the safest to remain heavily involved. He has been quarterback-proof, is shielded by Davante Adams, and thoroughly knows the system he’s in.
Utilization trends are taking full shape, and fantasy gamers get a reprieve from bye weeks, so let’s see if we can find any useful intel from player involvement.
10
TE Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals
Tight end Zach Ertz had seen 30 targets go his way in the first four weeks but has just 13 total in the last three games. In that time, we’ve seen McBride’s utilization go from three to five and then topping out at six in Week 7. While those numbers aren’t going to change anyone’s life, he had seven total targets in the first four weeks combined, and the second-year pro combined for a total — total — of just seven yards on two catches in the third and fourth games. He’s on the upward swing, and even though the numbers haven’t been amazing with just one outing north of 32 yards, McBride now takes over with Ertz heading to IR with a quad injury. The one X-factor here is the impending return of Kyler Murray (knee), which could be in the next few weeks, so it will be interesting to see how McBride and Joshua Dobbs continue to link up in the meantime.
9
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks
While DK Metcalf (hip, ribs) missing Week 7 action contributed to Smith-Njigba seeing more targets than usual, the rookie has at least five in the last three outings and in five of his six appearances. The problem is he hasn’t done jack squat with those looks until Metcalf was gone, and the matchup was extremely favorable for success. JSN turned a career-high seven looks into a 4-63-1 line, scoring his first TD as a pro. There’s a strong chance we see Metcalf back in Week 8, and having no bye teams means most gamers probably keep Smith-Njigba on the pine vs. Cleveland, but his consistent target share is intriguing if nothing actionable.
8
RB Emari Demercado, Arizona Cardinals
Talk about maddening!!! A week after gamers invested untold amounts of FAAB dollars and/or valuable waiver claims on Demercado, Arizona turned the keys over to a combination of Keaontay Ingram and Damien Williams, leading to most owners moving on from the rookie. Naturally, that led to the Cardinals returning to Demercado as the primary back in Week 7. In fairness — luckily — he didn’t do much with his team-leading 18 utilizations, producing 58 yards on 13 rushes and 17 on four grabs. But, with James Conner still on IR, fantasy owners may encounter yet another week of guessing as to which back gets the bulk of the workload. In some sense, it’s fortunate he faces Baltimore when there are no teams on a bye forcing our hand.
7
TE Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
The rookie returned from his concussion to post a personal-best eight catches for 75 yards on eight looks. He saw five more targets than Dawson Knox as Buffalo tried to play catch-up football. With Knox now out indefinitely due to a wrist injury, a changing of the guard is underway. The upcoming matchups are uneven. In Week 8, Tampa is a tough opponent for the position, and then the next four opponents all are positive, including three inside of the top six spots. Kincaid is worthy of a stash through the Week 8 break from byes in order to utilize him over the upcoming month that follows.
6
Indianapolis Colts running backs
A quick refresh from last week’s inclusion shows the Colts may intend to keep Zack Moss heavily involved. He and Jonathan Taylor evenly tallied 18 rushing attempts and were only two apart in total utilizations with the latter being involved a mere two more times. However, Taylor was far more efficient and effective than Moss, so we might just be seeing the shift begin in Week 8. Moss is a nice option to have as a spell but isn’t in the same universe as a fully healthy Taylor, and the latter has been ramping up his work for the past three weeks. New Orleans presents a tough opponent, and no teams on vacation suggests Moss probably can be left in reserve.
5
WR Rashid Shaheed, New Orleans Saints
Shaheed, while playing as the third receiver in a deep corps that also loses looks to Alvin Kamara, has managed to see at least six targets in three of the last four games and four of seven contests this season. There’s clearly a developing connection between the 6-foot, 180-pounder and quarterback Derek Carr. Playing the second-year receiver is a little tricky, though. Week 7’s eight targets resulted in just four grabs and 28 yards a game after he went for 2-85-1 on six looks. Without any teams on the bye, Shaheed is merely a curiosity in weekly leagues but has a great matchup and could be a worthwhile DFS flier. It’s tough to ignore the targets, and forward-thinking owners may want to roster him for use in Weeks 9 and 10 as New Orleans faces two easily beatable pass defenses during a two-game span that features several elite receivers on bye.
4
Denver Broncos running backs
Javonte Williams is clearly showing he is healthy after last year’s knee reconstruction. The third-year pro has rushed 25 times for 134 yards for a cool 5.36 per attempt in the past two contests. In Sunday’s win over Green Bay, the Broncos were able to keep the game close and lean on their talented back, giving him a season-high 15 carries and 19 total utilizations. It’s nice to see his efficiency holding up to a larger workload, but we shouldn’t get too excited as he faces Kansas City this Sunday for the second time in the past three weeks. In the earlier meeting, while Denver kept it close in a 19-8 loss, Williams still managed only 10 total utilizations and wasn’t even targeted for the first time in 16 straight appearances. Denver comes out of its Week 9 bye with four straight tough opponents, making Williams’ recent uptick far from a lock to continue.
3
Minnesota Vikings running backs
The commanding workload in Alexander Mattison‘s favor disappeared vs. the San Francisco 49ers, even though he was more efficient on the ground than Cam Akers. The latter was a more effective receiver, though, and the Vikings trusted him with the rock down the stretch when the game was on the line. The final tally was three targets apiece and 13 carries for Akers vs. 11 for Mattison. Now, did the coaching staff feel the former LA Ram would be a better matchup vs. San Fran since he faced them twice per year with Los Angeles? It could have played a role, but Mattison isn’t anyone special and hasn’t done enough with his touches to suggest he’s irreplaceable. At a minimum, we should expect a nearly even split going forward.
2
WR Kendrick Bourne, New England Patriots
A passing game that desperately needs someone to step up has seen Bourne post 16 receptions on 18 targets in the last two games. He has managed modest yardage outputs of 89 and 63, respectively, scoring last week — his first since the two-TD season opener. The next three weeks could be quite telling about his role the rest of the way. The Patriots face Miami in a repeat of Week 2’s matchup when Bourne was targeted nine times, followed by Washington and Indy for a pair of favorable opponents before the Week 11 bye.
1
Los Angeles Rams running backs
Darrell Henderson returned to the field for the first time in roughly a year, and he acquitted himself nicely with Kyren Williams on the Reserve/Injured list. We were eager to see the expected split between he and Royce Freeman, which resulted in the former rushing 18 times for 61 yards and a score, catching one of two targets for five more yards. Freeman saw a dozen utilizations on the ground with nothing coming through the air. Consider anything these backs get in the passing game as gravy, and it’s fair to presume Henderson will remain the lead back for the time being. Dallas is on the docket this week, and the matchup isn’t as tough as name value may suggest, but a fair portion of the success has come via running backs in the passing game. If you can get away with keeping Henderson on the pine this week, Week 9 vs. Green Bay is a much more appealing time to deploy him. Freeman also could be a justifiable play in Week 9 with byes returning.
