Fantasy football is driven by data, and reviewing key utilization statistics from Week 4 will help us evaluate what might be ahead in the foreseeable future. Now that a month is in the rearview, we’re able to get a better sense for any developing trends.
9
Detroit Lions running backs
The Lions clearly have a plan when it comes to divvying up touches between David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs, and we’ve seen no variance from it in the three games in which they have played together. Coming off a one-game absence, the former Chicago Bear rushed a whopping 32 times (74.4 percent share) and was clearly the choice back near the stripe, resulting in three scores. This split ain’t changing anytime soon.
8
Atlanta Falcons tight ends
We’ve recently discussed the target split between Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith in various areas of the site, so forgive me if this feels repetitive, but Pitts is no longer of use to fantasy owners. He’s second among the team’s TEs in receptions and yards behind Smith, and the 2021 first-rounder has just a one-target lead over his backup. In the last three games, Smith has all 20 of his targets vs. 18 for Pitts. We’ve seen the former find success in this offensive design before. We cannot say the same about Pitts, who has no chemistry with his quarterback. Feel free to move on at this point, unless you’re holding out hope for Atlanta to move him to a different roster for a fresh start.
7
Carolina Panthers wide receivers
This passing game is Adam Thielen, and that’s it. Bryce Young found some Week 1 success with tight end Hayden Hurst, which hasn’t been replicated since. In three games this year, two of which with Young at quarterback, Terrace Marshall Jr. has drawn an average of eight looks, including 10 last week, which was his career high. There could be something to be found here in fantasy since the Panthers have a beatable defense and Young will continue to grow, but the 2021 second-rounder needs to average more than the 7.1 yards we’ve seen thus far from him in ’23. Now that bye weeks are upon us, Marshall is a conceivable PPR flex for desperate owners as Carolina next heads to Detroit and Miami — both offenses capable of forcing the Panthers to play keep-up football.
6
TE Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys
Ferguson was knocking on the door of fantasy relevance in Weeks 2 and 3, but he finally broke through on Sunday vs. New England, as least in terms of volume. All seven targets were landed for a 77-yard day, good for PPR TE4 of the week entering Monday night. The more intriguing factor about him: That was the third seven-target outing for Ferguson in 2023, and he now sits No. 7 overall in season-long target count. He’s a weekly play in leagues that reward receptions at a volatile position.
5
Minnesota Vikings running backs
In Cam Akers‘ first game as a Viking, he rushed five times for a quick 40 yards and snagged both of his targets for 11 more yards. Efficient, sure, but Alexander Mattison dominated the team’s rushing attempts at 74.0 percent of the share. While this situation really comes down to the hot hand, it’s Mattison’s job to lose as long as he continues to produce and secures the ball. If anything, he could cede way to Akers on passing downs going forward.
4
Denver Broncos running backs
Running back Jaleel McLaughlin filled in for the injured Javonte Williams (hip) and provided an explosiveness this backfield has been sorely lacking all year by totaling 104 total yards with a score on 10 touches. Regardless of what happens with Williams’ injury prognosis, it’s clear this undrafted rookie — who happens to be the all-time leading rusher in NCAA history — deserves an expanded role in this offense. Should he carve out around 10-12 weekly touches, fantasy owners will be rewarded with a flex floor.
3
WR Michael Wilson, Arizona Cardinals
While owners will be hot to chase after Michael Wilson‘s two touchdowns on the waiver wire this week, there may be something brewing here beyond the Week 4 breakout performance. He currently is second in targets among Arizona receivers, coming in at half of Marquise Brown‘s 32. Wilson has seen his production ramp up each game since the opener, and no one but Hollywood is a threat to him among Arizona’s actual wideouts. However, tight end Zach Ertz continues to see a healthy share of the targets after a Week 3 blip. He now has at least eight in each other contest since returning from last year’s ACL tear. The Cards have been scrappy this year, but we’ll see more losses than not, and many will require enough passing volume to make three viable candidates for fantasy purposes as we deal with bye weeks.
2
Los Angeles Chargers wide receivers
All eyes were on how many of Mike Williams‘ looks would go to rookie first-rounder Quentin Johnston (3 targets), a similarly skilled player who can stretch the field. Instead, it was Joshua Palmer who offered the vertical game. The veteran landed only three balls for 77 yards but was thrown at eight times. There will be weeks in which Johnston pops off after a handful of targets result in a few big plays, but Palmer absolutely is the most reliable wideout target behind Keenan Allen. That said, Austin Ekeler (ankle) is nearing his return, which undoubtedly will cut into the WR2’s available target share. The Bolts are on bye this week, giving the coaches added time to build on the positives of Week 4 and let quarterback Justin Herbert‘s finger more time to heal.
1
Miami Dolphins running backs
Week 3’s fireworks display vs. the Denver Broncos was all well and good, but sustainability is what fantasy gamers crave from their running backs. Raheem Mostert never has been able to deliver that consistent punch for fantasy lineups, and we saw it on full display in Week 4. Seven carries produced only nine yards, and his five targets resulted in 36 yards on a trio of grabs. Toss in a fumble lost by the veteran and it was an ugly showing. In contrast, look at the sustained returns from De’Von Achane from the past two games. The rookie carried it only once more than Mostert but ripped off 101 yards and two scores on his way to 120 total yards of offense over a 24.5 percent utilization share … it’s easy to see how we could be witnessing a changing of the guard in real time.
