Lesser names carried many teams in Week 16’s Christmas-themed extravaganza, which brought a lump of coal for fantasy football gamers who suffered through low utilization by prominent running backs in Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, Kenneth Walker III, Travis Etienne, Tony Pollard, De’Von Achane, and Ty Chandler.
At receiver, several top names also went over as well as a child opening giftwrapped socks. A dozen targets for Cooper Kupp generated just 52 scoreless yards on a 50% reception rate. Stefon Diggs‘ struggles marched on with a 29-yard day on eight targets. Diontae Johnson had been heating up before fizzling out in Week 16, and low production by DeAndre Hopkins also put trusting fantasy managers in a hole. Davante Adams couldn’t have been much worse given that his quarterback threw for 62 total yards
Tight end once again gave us several players who saw at least six targets but did nothing of fantasy value with the opportunities. Guys like Tyler Conklin, Jonnu Smith, Jake Ferguson, Trey McBride all failed to break into double figures in point-per-reception scoring. Detroit’s Sam LaPorta was a major disappointment — a week after catching three touchdowns — by corralling as many catches in total on a trio of targets. Cole Kmet (knee) left early, and the same happened with T.J. Hockenson (knee). Travis Kelce tried his best to steal Christmas.
If you survived all of that, there’s a decent chance it was because Santa delivered the goods elsewhere on your roster. Amari Cooper single-handedly advanced teams to the next round. George Pickens, Puka Nacua, Calvin Ridley, Demarcus Robinson, Rashid Shaheed, Darius Slayton, and Gabe Davis all picked up the slack as fantasy stocking stuffers, if you will.
A third of the running backs who finished inside of the top 24 either weren’t permanent residents in fantasy lineups entering the week.
The trend continued over to tight end. Several unlikely names managed to cross that 10-point threshold. Chigoziem Okonkwo finally scored a TD, though it came from the hand of Derrick Henry. New Orleans’ Juwan Johnson turned seven targets into a 4-48-1 line. Logan Thomas produced 36 yards and a score on his five snags. Seattle’s Colby Parkinson (3-17-1) and Miami Dolphins tight end Durham Smythe (5-56-0) also mustered relevant results. Kylen Granson hauled in five of seven looks for 62 yards with Michael Pittman Jr. (concussion) out. Los Angeles Chargers tight end Gerald Everett fits that same profile, and his uptick in targets has largely coincided with the heel injury that has cost Keenan Allen time.
We’re one week away from wrapping up what usually constitutes the fantasy football season, and offensive transitions toward the youth movement will continue as more teams have fallen out of the playoff race. Given that most fantasy lineups are more or less locked into place, use the next few weeks to evaluate prospective fantasy talent for the 2024 season.
9
RB Emari Demercado, Arizona Cardinals
It’s difficult to say just how much of Demercado’s elevated workload in Week 16 was matchup- or necessity-based. Chicago had been extremely soft against pass-catching backs entering the game, but Demercado had not established himself as much of a receiving outlet this year. He was targeted more than four times only once and had not seen more than three looks in six of his eight prior appearances. Demercado was thrown at three times in Week 15 after just one in the previous two games combined. Remain cautiously optimistic since James Conner also was thrown at five times against the Chicago Bears, and Arizona has been without WR Marquise Brown (heel) for the better part of the last two games. Should Brown be out vs. Philadelphia in Week 17, there’s a path to DFS utility for Demercado.
8
RB Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
Harris’ worst fantasy season to date is largely due to his microscopic role as a receiver out of the backfield. He’s never been a huge TD-scoring threat in terms of efficiency, despite scoring 10 total times in each of his first two pro seasons. Harris has only five through 15 appearances, but they’ve actually come at a higher frequency than his rookie year and just two shy of last year. Following the firing of offensive coordinator Matt Canada, Harris has seen his receiving work basically dry up to nothing after it already was dwindling year over year. He hasn’t been targeted in three of the five games games, drawing six total looks in the other two games. Depending on how Mike Tomlin opts to address the offensive coordinator situation in the offseason, Harris should enter 2024 drafts on a low note and possibly enter sleeper status.
7
Chicago Bears running backs
D’Onta Foreman missed Week 16 while dealing with what has been deemed personal issues, and it’s unclear if he will be available in the fantasy championship round. The Bears had been leaning on Roschon Johnson over Khalil Herbert in the last few games, but they flipped the script against Arizona. The rookie did out-target Herbert three to two, but the veteran ran 10 more times and posted a strong line of 20-117-1 on the ground. The upcoming tilt with Atlanta strongly suggests all backs from Chicago should be avoided, regardless of Foreman’s status. Should he miss the rest of the season then gamers can consider Herbert a viable Week 18 daily play against Green Bay’s porous run D.
6
WR Demarcus Robinson, Los Angeles Rams
One byproduct of having an elite receiver on the roster is that it frees up other weapons to beat single coverage. But where things can get tricky is if the team has two strong starting receivers, then it typically creates inconsistent results for anyone else in the pecking order. That just hasn’t been the case for Robinson over the last month of play. He wasn’t involved until Week 9 and saw no more than two targets in his first three games this year, but the last four have resulted in at least four utilizations, 44-plus yards, and a touchdown in each outing. Despite his remarkably strong efforts, it’s understandable if anyone wants to pump the brakes entering the championship round. For those looking to tempt fate, Robinson faces a beatable New York Giants secondary.
5
WR Demario Douglas, New England Patriots
Douglas returned from missing a few games with a concussion and has regained his promising form. Prior to the injury absence, he was starting to heat up as one of the few fantasy-relevant options to be found in this offense. Bailey Zappe has injected a bit of life into that side of the ball for the Pats, and the pint-sized receiver known as “Pop” needed only one game to shake off the rust. Versus Denver, he finished with 5-74-0 on eight targets, and the rookie offers the bonus of an occasional rushing attempt. He remains scoreless as a pro, which means PPR-only. Even though the futures of Bill Belichick and Bill O’Brien in New England are unclear, Douglas is auditioning for a strong role for 2024 and has PPR flex worth the rest of this season.
4
WR Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions
Coming on in recent weeks, Williams is being involved on a more consistent basis. In the past two games, he has 13 targets, nine catches and 90 total yards after scoring in each of the prior to weeks. The second-year pro is basically just finished his rookie season after having just completed his 17th NFL game following injury and suspension absences. The fantasy production has been middling, but Williams is starting to see the game slow down as he is now fully back to mentally trusting his knee after the January 2022 torn ACL. His speed will come in handy vs. a Dallas defense that likes to jump routes. Detroit faces Minnesota again in the regular-season finale.
3
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks
The rookie is coming into his own of late as the Seahawks have leaned more on him and also found the right formula for how to target Smith-Njigba. Over the first 12 weeks of the season, he topped 10 PPR points three times, a benchmark he has accomplished in three of the last four games. In that most recent window, JSN has drawn at least seven targets three times, and Smith-Njigba still managed his best fantasy day since Week 7 in the floor game of four looks. Seattle has the 10th-least cap space in entering 2024, and JSN could be asked to replace Tyler Lockett next year to ease cap concerns. He is has some lineup appeal in all formats over the regular season’s closing weeks with matchups against Pittsburgh and Arizona.
2
RB Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans
With Tennessee out of playoff contention and Derrick Henry facing unrestricted free agency, the only thing holding back the coaching staff from showcasing Spears is respect for the King of Nashville. Given the limited Titans’ receiving attack and penchant for relying on the ground game, there will be room for both backs as evidenced by Week 16 action. Henry rushed 19 times for 88 yards and a score, adding 11 yards on his lone target, but he also threw a touchdown pass. Meanwhile, Spears rushed nine times and caught five of six targets for 67 total yards. While the results weren’t great, his 15 utilizations marked the rookie’s most since Week 13 (22) and his second-highest tally in 2023. Unfortunately, Houston has been strong vs. RBs on the year and held Spears to his worst fantasy game of the last month in Week 15. Use this one for 2024 evaluation purposes, though he has DFS appeal in Week 18 against Jacksonville.
1
WR K.J. Osborn, Minnesota Vikings
Injuries will dictate Osborn’s utility going forward as the Vikings lost both Jordan Addison (ankle) and T.J. Hockenson (knee) in Week 16. It’s unclear how long the rookie will be out, if at all, but the veteran tight end appears to be done for the rest of the year. Osborn, who was good for 5-91-1 on seven Week 16 targets, has flashed several times in his career and will see an increased target share alongside Justin Jefferson. The upcoming two matchups are favorable enough to toss him into lineups should you need a helping hand during the championship round or Week 18 play.
