It’s Gameweek 17 and Big Man Bakar is back with his Fantasy Football tips – that this week sees the respected judge give his answers to EIGHT key questions.
Fantasy Football Tips For GW17: Big Man Bakar Runs The Rule Over Eight BIG Questions
Respected Fantasy Football tips expert, Big Man Bakar tackles EIGHT key questions that a lot of football managers will be pondering ahead of Gameweek 17 and the busy festive period ahead.
See below Bakar’s questions and, of course, his answers and if you agree with his thinking then there is still plenty of time to get on the transfer market before the Saturday 21st December 11am FPL deadline.
Q) Who is the best captain this week?
I’m going to go with Mohamed Salah.
There are two realistic candidates this week, with Salah and Palmer going toe to toe for the armband.
The bookmakers give Salah a 71% chance to score or assist this week, as opposed to 63% for Palmer.
What clinches it for me is the underlying defensive data of their respective opponents.
Everton are conceding 1.3 xG per 90, as opposed to Spurs who are conceding 1.5 xG per 90 so the data indicates that Spurs are likely to concede higher quality chances.
Q) Who is the best Cunha replacement?
Think we have to wait on Cunha’s availability before deciding whether or not to sell him.
If he’s available to play Leicester, then he’s worth keeping given the abysmal underlying data for Leicester this season, which has gotten even worse since the arrival of Ruud Van Nistelrooy.
If we get news before the deadline that Cunha is likely to miss Leicester, then he is an easy sell for owners.
I’d lean towards Joao Pedro as my first choice replacement for those who don’t own.At under £6.0m, Pedro is almost a no-brainer to own.With penalty duties and a good set of fixtures on the horizon, the Brighton talisman offers great value and flexibility for strengthening your squad.
My recommendation for those who already own Joao Pedro would be to get Raul Jimenez.His minutes aren’t great, but he’s expected to start most fixtures and crucially, has a great entry point at home to Southampton this week.
Fulham’s games are fairly well spaced apart from Chelsea, which could be the game where Muniz gets the start.Fulham are putting up some healthy xG numbers this season, so even if he is subbed early in most games, at his price, I’d still think he’d be good enough to offer value.
He also rotates really well with commonly owned 8th attackers such as Rogers and Semenyo.
Q) Who is the best Ait Nouri replacement?
I’d lean towards Colwill here.
Chelsea’s appealing fixture list all the way up until Gameweek 22 makes Colwill a solid asset to own.Chelsea’s fixtures point towards potential defensive returns, with bookmakers placing them in the top five for clean sheet probability in three of the next five gameweeks.
Colwill is the most secure starter in the Chelsea defence and at £4.5m should be good value for money.
Q) Should Morgan Rogers and Antoine Semenyo be sold?
Enzo Fernandez/Amad Diallo worth considering?
Both Morgan Rogers and Antoine Semenyo I believe are still capable of doing a perfectly good job as eighth attackers in our FPL squads.
Rogers is operating at 0.4 xGi per 90, while Semenyo is even better at 0.5 xGi per 90 this season.
Yes, Enzo and Amad are appealing as well but do I see them as gamebreakers at this point?
Probably not as I’d expect their returns to be fairly similar to Rogers and Semenyo given the data.Hence, there is probably not enough upside in selling Rogers/Semenyo to Amad/Enzo for it to be worth the use of a valuable free transfer.
Q) Who are the optimal three Liverpool players to target?
From next Gameweek onwards when Liverpool play Leicester, it feels like getting three Liverpool players will be an absolute must.
We need to start planning for that immediately, and as of now, barring any injuries, I’m eyeing Salah, Trent and Alisson as my Liverpool triple up. Salah obviously picks himself while Trent is also a nice set and forget option to have in place from now on in.
He leads all defenders in expected goal involvement (xGI) and plays in a defence that tops the league for fewest expected goals conceded (xGC) per 90.
Liverpool’s excellent defensive metrics and the allure of a potential double in Gameweek 24 is making me lean towards getting Alisson as my third Liverpool player.
He should start all games barring injury and is crucially rotation proof unlike all the Liverpool attackers not named Salah.
Security of starts is the key thing to target here, as you’d want your third Liverpool player to ideally start both games in the double.
I have little interest in getting the likes of Jota or Diaz at this point, given the variety of more reliable midfielders available.
Q) Dominic Solanke – keep or sell? Worth buying Isak this week?
Given the packed fixture list, I believe Solanke is a strong hold. Solanke’s recent output has dipped, but for most teams, there are likely more pressing issues to address.
Spurs are among the top three teams for xG this season, and Solanke remains one of the league’s leading forwards for xG per 90 data.
His numbers haven’t translated into big FPL returns but we saw evidence of his potential to haul big in the EFL Cup against Manchester United. Furthermore, his starting role is assured, and he should play the full match more often than not which is a very underrated trait in the festive period.
Isak is obviously a solid player to own, but selling Solanke for him seems like a luxury transfer. Another factor with Isak is that many squads can fit four of Salah, Palmer, Saka, Trent, and Isak – and I assume Isak will be the one sacrificed in most cases, including mine.
Q) Should Saka be a priority for those who don’t have him?
Saka is neither a buy nor a sell at this point.
He’s going through a spell where his returns have dried up, but his underlying data over a large sample size this season still is fairly strong so he’s definitely worth keeping for the immediate short term.
He might be a sell in two to four weeks when the fixtures turn though, hence he shouldn’t be a priority buy for non owners.
Q) Mark Flekken – keep or sell?
Best goalkeeper to buy this week? A goalkeeper transfer is generally never high on the list of my priorities but Flekken’s race after this Gameweek will be run.
Known for strong defensive data, Brentford’s struggles this season with xG conceded come as a surprise.As mentioned earlier, Alisson is a very strong upgrade and one I’d strongly recommend over the upcoming weeks.
