The 2023 fantasy football draft season is starting to heat up now that we’ve gone through the height of free agency and all of the chosen rookies have been assigned to their professional home cities.
The landscape has changed a great deal for many franchises after a whirlwind offseason, and our divisional preview series will help you stay on top of all of the changes to date.
AFC divisional previews
East | North | South | West
NFC divisional previews
East | North | South | West
Atlanta Falcons
2022 record: 7-10
Notable coaching and system changes
In two years as head coach, Arthur Smith has posted identical 7-10 records, though the point differential went from minus-146 in 2021 to minus-21 last season, which qualifies as growth. The selection of Bijan Robinson confirms that Smith and offensive coordinator Dave Ragone will continue to heavily feature the ground game. Whether that can work in today’s NFL remains to be seen. With Dean Pees’ retirement, Ryan Nielsen was hired as defensive coordinator.
Key free-agent additions
- QB Taylor Heinicke
- WR Mack Hollins
- WR Scotty Miller
- TE Jonnu Smith (trade)
Key free-agent departures
Key draft additions
Quarterback preview
It’s tough to win in the NFL without a good quarterback. The team hopes that Desmond Ridder, a third-round pick in 2022, can develop into one. The jury is out. Ridder went 2-2 in four starts but was as heavily managed as a quarterback can be. He attempted 115 passes without an interception, which is impressive, though there were only two TDs in there as well, both of which came in Week 18 against Tampa Bay’s reserves. If Ridder can’t cut it, the Falcons could turn to Taylor Heinicke, who had some moments in Washington but could never sustain. Stay away.
Running back preview
There’s no denying the talent Bijan Robinson possesses. He was arguably the best player in this year’s draft and top RB prospect since Saquon Barkley. Robinson is the total package, boasting good speed, elusiveness, and balance, and he’s a capable receiver. Atlanta is likely to use him in multiple spots and get him the ball early and often. The debates about whether it was too early to draft a running back, or whether that position was a need for Atlanta, which finished third in the NFL in rushing, are immaterial for fantasy owners. Robinson, the most talented back, joined a team that can and will run. He’s an immediate RB1.
Of course, Robinson’s arrival is a major blow to last year’s backfield tandem of Tyler Allgeier (1,174 yards, 4 TDs) and Cordarrelle Patterson (817 yards, 8 TDs), both of whom will be moved into complementary roles. Of the two, the bruising Allgeier seems more likely to retain significant involvement. At 23, he’s nine years younger than Patterson, and more of a physical presence. Allgeier could be an RB3/RB4 based on Atlanta’s run-heavy philosophy.
Where Patterson fits is less clear. His presence feels redundant with Robinson on board, leading to some speculation that he could be traded or even released as a cap casualty. We’ll see where things land with Patterson, but for now he’s gone from potential RB3 to late-round curiosity.
Wide receiver preview
This year, the Falcons took the first running back in the draft. Last year, they took the first receiver. Drake London didn’t put up huge numbers as a rookie — 72 receptions, 866 yards, four touchdowns — but it was respectable considering he was thrust into the No. 1 role immediately and had to work with combination of Ridder and Marcus Mariota. The USC product, whose 117 targets nearly doubled anyone else on the team (Olamide Zaccheaus was second with 61), again looks well positioned to be the primary read, though better health from Kyle Pitts should bring their respective usage into closer alignment. London is a WR3 with upside.
Atlanta gave a pair of one-year deals to Mack Hollins (57-690-4 w/ LV) and Scotty Miller (23-185-0 w/ TB) to start opposite London and man the slot, respectively. While they may be upgrades from names like Zaccheaus and Damiere Byrd, it’s hard to see there being much left over in the passing game once London, Pitts, and the RBs get theirs.
Tight end preview
Another recent top-10 pick, Kyle Pitts appeared poised to join the upper echelon of fantasy tight ends after logging 1,026 yards as a rookie. The Falcons struggled to get him involved consistently, though, and he caught more than three passes in a game just twice before a knee injury ended his sophomore campaign after 10 games. For a 6-foot-6, 246-pound walking mismatch to have just three touchdowns in two seasons amounts to play-calling malpractice. Atlanta needs to get Pitts more involved. If they do, he’s a top-five fantasy TE.
One thing working against an increased role for Pitts is the addition of Jonnu Smith (27-245-0 w/ NE). While he didn’t do much in two years with the Pats, he caught eight TD passes in his final season with the Titans under Arthur Smith. Jonnu Smith, who carries no fantasy appeal of his own, could undercut Pitts.
Sleeper/breakout candidates
Robinson’s arrival and perpetual salivation over Pitts’ upside could cause fantasy owners to overlook the potential of a second-year jump from Drake London, who quietly finished second in receptions and third in yards among rookies. Teams will stack the box, and that should give the 6-foot-4 London chances to make plays downfield.
Bust potential/overvalued players
In 2021, Cordarrelle Patterson was Atlanta’s most effective offensive weapon. A year ago, he missed four games with a knee injury and saw his role shrink down the stretch. Now, he looks full-on expendable with Robinson on the roster. With an undefined role, Patterson is best viewed as speculative depth.
Carolina Panthers
2022 record: 7-10
Notable coaching and system changes
Despite nearly winning the NFC South behind interim coach Steve Wilks, the Panthers elected to hire Frank Reich as their new full-time head coach. Reich went 40-33-1 in four-plus years in Indy before being fired last November. He’ll be joined by coordinators Thomas Brown on offense and Ejiro Evero defensively. Brown worked under Sean McVay for three seasons, and his first order of business (along with Reich) will be to cultivate Bryce Young.
Key free-agent additions
- QB Andy Dalton
- RB Miles Sanders
- WR Adam Thielen
- WR DJ Chark Jr.
- TE Hayden Hurst
Key free-agent departures
- QB Sam Darnold
- RB D’Onta Foreman
- WR DJ Moore (trade)
- PK Zane Gonzalez (trade)
Key draft additions
- QB Bryce Young
- WR Jonathan Mingo
Quarterback preview
Carolina paid a steep price to move up to the No. 1 overall pick and select Bryce Young. The Alabama product has shown tremendous poise throughout his collegiate career, and his accuracy, decision making, and quick release are all first rate. He has good mobility as well, though he tends to use that to extend plays rather than scramble. Young has also been durable. For all the good, however, there’s one major nit to be picked. He’s 5-foot-10, 204 pounds, and the list of non-running quarterbacks that size to succeed at the NFL level is, well, short.
Although Young appears lined up to start from Week 1 — Andy Dalton is there in case of emergency — he isn’t worth considering before the final rounds, and even then, it’d be as a QB3 flier.
Running back preview
Following the Christian McCaffrey trade, the Panthers gained surprisingly good mileage out of D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard. Still, the offseason signing of Miles Sanders (1,269 yards, 11 TDs w/ PHI) represents a clear upgrade. Used in a 1a/1b scenario most of his first three seasons with the Eagles, Sanders operated as the primary back on early downs last year, which resulted in career highs across the board as a runner alongside career lows as a receiver. Don’t mistake lack of opportunity for lack of ability, though, as Sanders caught 50 passes as a rookie and could be used as a checkdown for Young. He’s a midrange RB2.
In two seasons, Hubbard has averaged 539 yards rushing, 173 yards receiving, and four TDs. Those look like reasonable numbers to pencil in as a complement to Sanders. It’s enough to make Hubbard an RB5 and handcuff him to the former Eagle.
Wide receiver preview
With DJ Moore gone as part of the trade to acquire the top pick, Terrace Marshall (28-490-1) is the club’s top returning receiver. He’ll be joined by offseason additions Adam Thielen (70-716-6 w/ MIN) and DJ Chark Jr. (30-502-3 w/ DET) in an overhauled unit. Of the projected starters, Thielen is the steadiest option while Marshall may hold the most upside. He was a second-round pick but has just 45 receptions during his two seasons. Chark topped 1,000 yards back in 2019 but has battled injuries ever since while posting mediocre numbers. With a rookie QB, Thielen might offer WR4 value with Marshall as a late-round flier. Chark can be safely ignored.
A bit further down the depth chart you’ll find Laviska Shenault and Jonathan Mingo. Shenault, a former second-round pick of Jacksonville, caught 121 passes in two years with the Jags before being traded last August. While he hasn’t had a major impact, his versatility might appeal to the new staff. Mingo has good size (6-foot-2, 220 pounds) and can make plays in traffic. With veterans ahead of him, this may be a developmental year for Mingo.
Tight end preview
Looking to support their young quarterback, the Panthers signed Hayden Hurst, who caught 52 passes for 414 yards and a pair of touchdowns from Joe Burrow a season ago. Hurst is a steady, reliable pass catcher who should be an upgrade over Ian Thomas (21-197-0), who never emerged following an encouraging rookie campaign back in 2018. If he gets heavy usage, Hurst might push for low-end TE1 status.
Sleeper/breakout candidates
Laviska Shenault hasn’t been a bust, but he hasn’t lived up to expectations, either, mostly subsisting on a diet of quick hitters near the line of scrimmage. Perhaps the new coaches can unlock his explosiveness by getting him involved in more creative ways. As a final-round pick, Shenault might overdeliver.
Bust potential/overvalued players
The idea of Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen being a top receiving tandem was short lived. That’s because Thielen is on the downside athletically. He’s still savvy enough to get open on short routes, which helps in the red zone, but he’s topped 750 yards in a season only once since 2018. Thielen is no more than fantasy depth.
New Orleans Saints
2022 record: 7-10
Notable coaching and system changes
Year 1 of Dennis Allen as head coach wasn’t appreciably different from Sean Payton’s final season. Both missed out on the playoffs, and both were led by their defense. Allen and offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael hope stability at quarterback will get the offense back on track. Defensively, Ryan Nielsen and Kris Richard are gone after serving as co-coordinators. In their place, Joe Woods takes over after running Cleveland’s defense the past three years.
Key free-agent additions
- QB Derek Carr
- RB Jamaal Williams
Key free-agent departures
- QB Andy Dalton
- RB Mark Ingram (unsigned)
- WR Jarvis Landry (unsigned)
- WR Deonte Harty
- WR Marquez Callaway
- TE Adam Trautman (traded)
Key draft additions
- RB Kendre Miller
- WR A.T. Perry
Quarterback preview
For whatever shortcomings Derek Carr has as a quarterback, he’s a clear upgrade over the tandem of Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston. In nine seasons with the Raiders, Carr averaged 3,916 yards, 24 TDs, and 11 INTs. His string of four consecutive 4,000-yard campaigns ended last year when he was benched for the final two games. The way things ended in Las Vegas should provide Carr with plenty of motivation to deliver in an offense that has some real weapons. With no mobility to speak of, Carr is a competent QB2 for fantasy owners.
Running back preview
When the Saints’ running game was at its apex, the combination of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram hit defenses with two distinctly different styles. The signing of Jamaal Williams, who led the NFL with 17 rushing touchdowns a year ago in Detroit, signals a desire to return to that approach. It’s a good move as Kamara hasn’t been nearly as effective the past two seasons, averaging 1,362 total yards and 6.5 TDs; over his first four years, Kamara averaged 1,541 yards and 14.5 TDs on fewer touches. If Williams can absorb the body blows, it should help keep Kamara fresher and lead to more big plays, assuming he’s not wearing down entering Year 7.
With 17 of Williams’ 30 career rushing touchdowns coming in 2022, it’s hard not to view his work as something of an outlier. Prior to last year, Williams averaged 517 yards rushing, 224 yards receiving, and 4.2 TDs per season. Don’t be surprised if his 2023 output is closer to that.
New Orleans also drafted Kendre Miller with the 71st overall pick. His role is undefined and could ebb or flow based on any discipline Kamara faces for an off-the-field incident that led to an indictment in February. At this stage, Kamara looks like a high-end RB2, which is down from previous seasons, with Williams a midrange RB3. Miller, meanwhile, could be a late-round target if a Kamara suspension looks likely.
Wide receiver preview
Heading into last season, the Saints thought the trio of Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, and Chris Olave was going to be as dynamic as any in the NFL. Of that group, only Olave delivered. The Ohio State product caught 72 passes for 1,042 yards and four touchdowns while playing in 15 games. He looks like the real deal, and Carr showed last season with Davante Adams that he isn’t afraid to lean on a single target. There are a lot of question marks in the passing game outside of Olave, so calling his name as your No. 2 receiver with WR1 potential seems prudent.
As for Thomas, it’s three years and counting since he was a fantasy darling. Injuries are clearly a huge part of the story with him appearing in just 10 of the last 50 games, including a dislocated toe in 2022. He reportedly still isn’t back to full health and looked like a possible cap casualty before restructuring his deal. Given his history, Thomas could be a midround target as a WR4 with serious upside, but at age 30 you wonder if he’s simply done.
One other name to know is Rashid Shaheed. He came on late as an undrafted rookie with 22 receptions for 377 yards (17.1 YPC) over the final six games. If Thomas breaks down again, Shaheed has a shot at being their No. 2 wideout behind Olave. In larger leagues that might be worth a final-round gamble.
Tight end preview
A converted receiver, Juwan Johnson emerged as a viable threat in 2022, posting a 42-508-7 line. That last number is the most impressive as only Travis Kelce (12) and George Kittle (11) had more touchdown receptions among tight ends. He’s a borderline TE1 who could deliver nice value if his involvement grows with Carr.
The NFL’s version of a Swiss Army Knife, Taysom Hill also qualifies at the position, and his unique skill set gives him weekly potential to produce as a TE1. Then again, he’s equally likely to deliver nothing. That makes him arguably the more interesting/frustrating weekly lottery ticket play out there.
Sleeper/breakout candidates
While training camp could shake up the depth chart, right now the only thing between Rashid Shaheed and a potential role as New Orleans’ No. 2 receiver is someone that missed 40 games the past three seasons. If you’re looking for a deep sleeper, Shaheed could be your man.
Bust potential/overvalued players
Physical decline, improved depth, and a pending trial are all potential roadblocks for Alvin Kamara, who has been at RB1 level for most of his six seasons. With the trial set to begin in July, it’s conceivable a suspension will be handed down. Adding Williams and Miller means fewer touches, so he’ll need to do more with less in 2023.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2022 record: 8-9
Notable coaching and system changes
Picked to inherit Bruce Arians’ 13-4 squad from 2021, head coach Todd Bowles saw his star-studded roster seemingly age overnight. While they still won the NFC South, an 8-9 mark and first-round playoff exit are nothing to crow about. In the aftermath, the team dismissed numerous coaches, including offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich, and replaced him with longtime Seahawks assistant Dave Canales, who’ll try to reshape the offense. Defensively, Kacy Rodgers and Larry Foote return as co-coordinators.
Key free-agent additions
- QB Baker Mayfield
- RB Chase Edmonds
Key free-agent departures
- QB Tom Brady (retired)
- RB Leonard Fournette (unsigned)
- RB Giovani Bernard (retired)
- WR Julio Jones (unsigned)
- WR Breshad Perriman (unsigned)
- TE Cameron Brate (unsigned)
Key draft additions
- TE Payne Durham
- WR Trey Palmer
Quarterback preview
With Tom Brady retiring (for reals this time), the Buccaneers went out and signed Baker Mayfield to a one-year deal. Tampa Bay gets a veteran quarterback, allowing former second-rounder Kyle Trask time to develop, and Mayfield gets a shot at resetting his market after a rough 2022 that saw him split time between the Panthers and Los Angeles Rams. While he has some talented targets at his disposal, Mayfield hasn’t done enough to warrant draft-day consideration outside of the deepest leagues.
Running back preview
In what will be a recurring theme, the Bucs will be getting younger in the backfield this season as 28-year-old Leonard Fournette won’t return. Rachaad White, 24, is set to take over as the lead back after a respectable rookie campaign that saw him account for 771 combined yards and three touchdowns in a mostly complementary role. With Mayfield under center, you can expect a heavier emphasis on the ground game, which should mean more work for White. He’d be an enticing choice for your No. 3 back and is an RB2 for aggressive drafters.
Chase Edmonds is next on the depth chart and should see time on passing downs. He was a bust in Miami, managing just 2.9 yards per carry, but looked better after signing in Denver. In two seasons prior to last year, Edmonds averaged 877 combined yards and caught 96 passes. That makes him possible late-round depth.
Wide receiver preview
Despite each missing two games last year, Mike Evans (77-1,124-6) and Chris Godwin (104-1,023-3) both eclipsed the 1,000-yard plateau as part of the quick passing game that dominated Tampa Bay’s offensive game plan. It was the ninth such effort in as many seasons for Evans, who has been one the steadiest producers at the position. The six TDs were a major letdown, though, after he scored 27 in two previous years with Brady. Entering his age-30 season, Evans feels like a midrange WR2.
Godwin was the definition of a volume target. He finished eighth in the NFL in receptions (104) and 101st in yards per catch (9.8). While a capable No. 2 receiver, Godwin has never again reached the heights of 2019 when he logged 1,333 yards and nine TDs. Add in the QB switch, and he’s best viewed as a solid WR3 in PPR leagues.
Russell Gage was a popular late-round stash after coming over from the Falcons before last season. He ended up being an afterthought most weeks, though, and his numbers (51-426-5) were well below his recent output in Atlanta. Gage isn’t worth drafting in 2023.
Tight end preview
Kyle Rudolph and Cameron Brate didn’t make anyone forget Rob Gronkowski a year ago, and now both are gone. Unheralded fourth-round pick Cade Otton looks like a possible find, though, after he finished his rookie year with 42 receptions. In deeper leagues, he could be a TE2 consideration.
Sleeper/breakout candidates
Rachaad White averaged 3.7 yards per carry and scored three times in 179 combined touches. While that’s middling production, White has a pathway to RB2 value. The team will run more — they finished last in rushing last year — and the second-year pro is also a capable receiver. He could see heavy usage in his sophomore season.
Bust potential/overvalued players
More running means less passing, and based on Mayfield’s style of play it feels like Mike Evans is more likely to fall short of expectations than Godwin, who is an underneath target. Evans could still extend his 1,000-yard streak to 10 seasons, but he shouldn’t be considered a WR1 this year.
