The 2023 fantasy football draft season is starting to heat up now that we’ve gone through the height of free agency and all of the chosen rookies have been assigned to their professional home cities.
The landscape has changed a great deal for many franchises after a whirlwind offseason, and our divisional preview series will help you stay on top of all of the changes to date.
AFC divisional previews
East | North | South | West
NFC divisional previews
East | North | South | West
Houston Texans
2022 record: 3-13-1
Notable coaching and system changes
For the second time in as many years, the Texans blew up their coaching staff. This time, Lovie Smith was out in favor of San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans, who was named the new head coach. Ryans brought Bobby Slowik with him from San Francisco as offensive coordinator, so expect a modified version of Kyle Shanahan’s offense. On defense, Matt Burke gets his first coordinator job after spending 2022 as Arizona’s D-line coach.
Key free-agent additions
- QB Case Keenum
- RB Devin Singletary
- WR Robert Woods
- WR Noah Brown
- TE Dalton Schultz
Key free-agent departures
- QB Kyle Allen
- RB Rex Burkhead (unsigned)
- WR Brandin Cooks (trade)
- TE Jordan Akins
Key draft additions
- QB C.J. Stroud
- WR Nathaniel Dell
- WR Xavier Hutchinson
Quarterback preview
While it’s plausible Davis Mills, or perhaps even Case Keenum, starts in Week 1, C.J. Stroud is the quarterback of both the present and future in Houston. At least they hope so. Accuracy and decision making are Stroud’s biggest strengths, which should meld well on play-action. He’s more of a pocket passer than many young QBs, however, so it’ll be more difficult for him to accumulate meaningful fantasy value than someone like Ohio State predecessor Justin Fields. Look for Houston to feature the run, making Stroud no more than a QB3 in single-year leagues.
Running back preview
Considering the traditional potency of the Shanahan running attack and his expected role as lead back, Dameon Pierce appears well positioned for a big sophomore season. Even within one of the NFL’s worst offenses a season ago, the former Gator racked up 1,104 yards and five touchdowns in 13 games before being shut down with an ankle injury. Entering the NFL, the question about Pierce wasn’t speed or power, but durability, having never served as a lead back in college. With that at least partially answered, Pierce could be poised to enter the RB1 conversation.
Houston upgraded its RB2 spot by signing Buffalo’s leading rusher, Devin Singletary. The durable back hasn’t missed a game since 2019, and over his four-year career has averaged 1,031 total yards and five TDs per season. He should get plenty of work, particularly on passing downs, and after signing a one-year deal he should have some added incentive to deliver. Singletary could be an RB4.
Wide receiver preview
With Brandin Cooks traded to Dallas, the Texans’ receiver room is in a state of flux. Nico Collins is the top returning receiver, but that designation comes on the strength of 481 yards and 37 catches. He’s spent time on IR in each of his first two seasons and is far from a sure thing. John Metchie was also on the roster last year, but he missed his entire rookie year recovering from Leukemia. While he’s expected to be ready to go in camp, it’s impossible to know what they’ll get from Metchie in 2023.
Robert Woods (53-527-2 w/ TEN) and Noah Brown (43-555-3 w/ DAL) represent the veteran additions. Woods was an important part of the Los Angeles Rams offense before he tore his ACL in 2021, leading to him being traded to the Tennessee Titans before last year. At 31, it’s debatable how much Woods has left. Brown, meanwhile, flashed early last season with Dallas, but his involvement tapered off once Michael Gallup returned from injury. He was primarily a special teamer during his first four seasons and is unlikely to fill more than a tertiary role.
In addition, the Texans spent a third-round pick on Nathaniel Dell, who should compete for playing time in the slot. While Dell is undersized (5-foot-8, 165 pounds), he has the quickness and elusiveness to make defenders miss in space. Sixth-round pick Xavier Hutchinson is larger and better suited to making plays in traffic, but it’s unlikely he’d leapfrog similarly physical wideouts like Woods and Brown.
Tight end preview
After reportedly turning down a lucrative contract extension with Dallas, Dalton Schultz wound up settling for a one-year deal with the Texans. Factoring in age and performance, Schultz arguably enters 2023 as Houston’s top pass-catching threat, having amassed 198 receptions, 2,000 yards, and 17 touchdowns over the last three seasons. As with Singletary, playing for a contract should be an extra carrot for Schultz, who looks like a legit top-10 TE.
Sleeper/breakout candidates
With so much uncertainty at receiver, Dalton Schultz is positioned to join Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews as TEs who lead their team in receiving. Two more things working in his favor: 1) TEs often function as safety blankets for young QBs, and 2) Slowik worked with George Kittle, who has been dynamic at times. Schultz has top-five upside.
Bust potential/overvalued players
It’s always tempting to think rookies are going to hit the ground running, and C.J. Stroud already carries a high profile from his days with the Buckeyes. Don’t get carried away. The Texans are still in the early stages of a rebuild, and as noted, Stroud isn’t a runner. It’s hard to see a path to much value in 2023.
Indianapolis Colts
2022 record: 4-12-1
Notable coaching and system changes
Last season was an unmitigated disaster for the Colts. They fired Frank Reich (3-5-1) after Week 9, and interim head coach Jeff Saturday (1-7) was even worse. Indy hired Shane Steichen, who spent the past two years as Philly’s OC, as head coach. In turn, Steichen tabbed Jim Bob Cooter as his offensive coordinator; Cooter was the OC in Detroit from 2016-18 but has bounced around since. Gus Bradley was retained from Reich’s staff to run the defense.
Key free-agent additions
- QB Gardner Minshew
- WR Isaiah McKenzie
- PK Matt Gay
Key free-agent departures
- QB Matt Ryan (unsigned)
- WR Parris Campbell
Key draft additions
- QB Anthony Richardson
- WR Josh Downs
- RB Evan Hull
- TE Will Mallory
Quarterback preview
For the seventh straight year, the Colts will have a different Week 1 starter. Despite drafting Anthony Richardson fourth overall, it seems likely veteran Gardner Minshew will get the nod. Minshew played under Steichen with Philly last year and is a serviceable bridge while Richardson refines his mechanics. Richardson has an elite combination of size, speed, and arm strength, and it’s not hard to envision him operating the ground-heavy offense we saw Jalen Hurts run in 2021. If he supplants Minshew in camp, the rookie will become a very interesting late-round pick based on his running ability. If not, Richardson is a priority in-season addition whenever he takes over.
Running back preview
Productive and exceedingly durable at every level, Jonathan Taylor broke down in 2022, a year after he logged 372 combined touches. Ankle injuries limited him to 11 games and necessitated arthroscopic surgery in January, causing no shortage of angst among fantasy owners who used the No. 1 overall pick on him. Taylor should be fully recovered in time for training camp, and the prospect of pairing him with Richardson in a similar scheme to the one the Eagles used to rush for more than 2,500 yards last year (and 2,715 in 2021) is enticing. Taylor is an RB1, but it’s difficult to argue he’s the RB2 this year.
Philadelphia liked to sprinkle in multiple backs, so look for Zack Moss, acquired from Buffalo last year in exchange for Nyheim Hines, to see work as well. Moss was effective down the stretch, averaging 4.8 yards per carry with Indy, and his bulldozer frame is a nice complement to Taylor. Moss could be targeted as an RB5 or handcuff. Rookie Evan Hull and Deon Jackson could also be involved, particularly on passing downs, though neither is a draft-day contender.
Wide receiver preview
Indianapolis’ top two receiver spots are set. In a season marked by porous QB play, Michael Pittman Jr. still hauled in 99 passes and was targeted 141 times. It led to only 925 yards (an unsightly 9.3 YPC) and four TDs, but the USC product has established himself as a legitimate WR2 for fantasy owners. Alec Pierce had a decent rookie year with a 41-593-2 line, which featured a team-best 14.5 yards per catch. Indy will be counting on improvement from Pierce, though with the quarterback position in flux, you shouldn’t consider him more than late-round fodder with moderate upside.
For the slot, you have a pair of receivers jockeying for playing time. Diminutive Isaiah McKenzie (42-423-4 w/ BUF) made some plays in Buffalo, though in six NFL campaigns he’s never reached the 500-yard barrier. Indy nabbed Josh Downs 79th overall, and he has a similar body type to McKenzie, albeit with more explosiveness. If Downs can transition to the NFL game quickly, he could see the bulk of the snaps. If he needs more time to acclimate, McKenzie should fill in. Neither offers fantasy appeal.
Tight end preview
Checking in at 6-foot-7, 253 pounds, Jelani Woods presents a massive target for whoever is under center. A third-round pick a year ago, Woods caught 25 passes for 312 yards and three TDs as a rookie. The team also drafted Will Mallory, who ran the fastest 40-yard dash of any tight end at the combine this year, and he might get the chance to stretch the middle of the field. Woods is the name to know here, albeit as a reserve with untapped potential. Mo Alie-Cox also remains on the roster.
Sleeper/breakout candidates
As mentioned with the Texans, a tight end can be a young quarterback’s best friend, and if Richardson takes over sooner than later it could mean a major uptick in opportunities for Jelani Woods. The second-year pro shouldn’t be drafted as a TE1, but he’s someone to monitor and could exceed expectations.
Bust potential/overvalued players
There’s unlikely to be much enthusiasm from fantasy owners for Colts offensive players not named Taylor, but even within the realm of lowered expectations there’s room to disappoint. That brings us to Alec Pierce. It’s easy to project a second-year jump for a talented player but given the state of Indy’s QBs you might be wasting a roster spot.
Jacksonville Jaguars
2022 record: 9-8
Notable coaching and system changes
The transition from Urban Meyer to Doug Pederson as head coach couldn’t have gone much better with Trevor Lawrence looking much improved and the Jags winning the AFC South for the first time since 2017. Offensive coordinator Press Taylor deserves praise as well with Jacksonville jumping from last in scoring to 10th, and Mike Caldwell helmed a defensive jump from 28th in points allowed to 12th in Year 1. All three return.
Key free-agent additions
- RB D’Ernest Johnson
- WR Calvin Ridley (trade)
Key free-agent departures
- WR Marvin Jones
Key draft additions
- TE Brenton Strange
- RB Tank Bigsby
- WR Parker Washington
Quarterback preview
Trevor Lawrence wore labels like “generational talent” and “can’t miss prospect” into his rookie year, only to endure massive struggles with Meyer. His growth under Pederson and Taylor was gradual at first, but he seemed to hit his stride in November and helped lead the Jags to a 7-2 record down the stretch. Lawrence cut his interceptions in half, passed for 4,113 yards and 25 TDs, and added 291 yards and five scores on the ground. He enters 2023 on the cusp of joining the upper echelon of emerging superstar quarterbacks that currently includes names like Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Josh Allen. Lawrence is a fringe QB1 with the potential for more.
Running back preview
Jacksonville’s other first-round pick in 2021, Travis Etienne missed his entire rookie season following foot surgery and opened last year firmly behind James Robinson on the depth chart. That arrangement didn’t last. The transition began in early October, and by Halloween, Robinson was a Jet. Etienne topped 100 yards in a game eight times over his final 13 and finished his de facto rookie year with 1,441 yards and five TDs. Better work in the red zone and improved ball security would help, and to that end Etienne has said he’s looking to bulk up this offseason. Etienne is a strong RB2 with RB1 upside.
The No. 2 job is up for grabs between the returning JaMycal Hasty, free-agent signing D’Ernest Johnson, and third-round pick Tank Bigsby. Hasty filled the role after Robinson was dealt but did little with it. Johnson flashed when given the opportunity in Cleveland, but he could never crack the rotation when either back ahead of him was healthy. Bigsby is a tough runner and solid receiver. We’ll see if the rookie can outlast the veterans in camp.
Wide receiver preview
Be honest, did you even remember that the Jaguars traded for Calvin Ridley last November? Well, they did, and the former Atlanta Falcon should slot in as the top receiver now that he’s finished serving his suspension for gambling. Ridley looked like an emerging star in 2020 when he caught 90 passes for 1,374 yards and nine TDs, but he hasn’t played a game since Oct. 24, 2021. The silver lining is that the lengthy absence wasn’t injury related as he sat out much of the 2021 season for mental health reasons before being suspended for all of 2022. While he turns 29 this year, Ridley should have fresh legs, and with Lawrence delivering the football there’s real WR1 potential.
Many scoffed at the contracts Jacksonville gave to Christian Kirk and Zay Jones. The pair delivered, however, with Kirk posting an 84-1,108-8 line and Jones right behind at 82-823-5. The arrival of Ridley figures to push both down a peg, though Kirk still looks like a WR3/WR4 type.
For Jones, you might check out his namesake, Marvin Jones, who had 46 receptions, 529 yards, and three TDs as the No. 3 receiver last year. Those aren’t draftable numbers.
Tight end preview
A bit of a disappointment with the Giants, Evan Engram set career highs in receptions (73) and yards (766) during his lone season with the Jags, and the team responded by slapping the franchise tag on him. He has yet to sign the deal, though that’s not uncommon and odds are he’ll be ready come Week 1.
Second-round pick Brenton Strange is another capable receiver and a more dynamic blocker, which could free up Engram to line up in multiple spots. The question for fantasy owners is how much do Ridley, and to a lesser extent Strange, eat into Engram’s opportunities? He’s a borderline TE1/TE2.
Sleeper/breakout candidates
Classifying Calvin Ridley as a potential WR1 probably tipped our hand as there’s little chance he’ll be drafted as one of the top 10 or 12 receivers. Nor should he. Instead, he’s the kind of player who might be available in the middle rounds when owners are looking for WR3s. There’s risk to be sure, but the upside is substantial.
Bust potential/overvalued players
Again, we already asked the key question that lands Evan Engram in this spot. Will adding a potential No. 1 receiver like Ridley, along with a talented young tight end in Strange, reduce Engram’s role? We’re thinking it does, and that’s a problem for a volume producer like Engram.
Tennessee Titans
2022 record: 7-10
Notable coaching and system changes
After defeating the Green Bay Packers on Thursday Night Football, the Titans were 7-3 and looked well on their way to another AFC South banner. Instead, they lost their last seven and missed the playoffs. The skid cost Todd Downing his job as offensive coordinator, and head coach Mike Vrabel replaced him with passing game coordinator Tim Kelly. Kelly was the OC in Houston during Deshaun Watson‘s best years, so expect more diversity. Shane Bowen returns for a third year as defensive coordinator.
Key free-agent additions
- None
Key free-agent departures
- WR Robert Woods
- TE Austin Hooper
Key draft additions
- QB Will Levis
- RB Tyjae Spears
- TE Josh Whyle
Quarterback preview
Veteran Ryan Tannehill has played some good football for the Titans, but he’ll be 35 in July, is entering the last year of his contract, and finished last season on IR with an ankle injury. Despite Tennessee trading up to grab Will Levis after he unexpectedly fell out of Round 1, Tannehill projects to be the starter in 2023. Of course, if things go south early on, then all bets are off, and Levis could grab the reins as a rookie. Levis has good mobility and a strong arm, but his decision-making needs improvement. Given the uncertainty, this is a situation to avoid.
Running back preview
Although it wasn’t the equal of his monster 2020 campaign, Derrick Henry rebounded from an injury-riddled 2021 to carry a lifeless offense to the tune of 1,936 yards and 13 TDs — that included a career-high 398 yards on 33 catches. It was enough to make Henry one of 12 players to earn AP Offensive Player of the Year votes. The bruising back logged 382 touches a season ago, though, and at 29 you wonder how much longer that level of involvement is sustainable. There was talk that Henry was being shopped before the draft, too, so perhaps the Titans see the writing on the wall. Henry is still an RB1, but there’s more risk than past years.
Behind Henry will be either Hassan Haskins (150 total yards as a rookie) or Tyjae Spears, who was taken 81st overall. Spears garnered a lot of buzz coming out of the Senior Bowl for his big-play ability and skills as a receiver. If you’re looking to roll the dice on upside in the later rounds, Spears would be intriguing.
Wide receiver preview
Drafted to replace A.J. Brown as a physical force at receiver, Treylon Burks struggled to stay on the field as a rookie, which included a stint on Injured Reserve with turf toe. All told, he appeared in 11 games, catching 33 passes for 444 yards and a touchdown — in fairness, Burks was only 83 yards short of the team lead, which speaks to just how inept the Tennessee passing game was in 2022. While it should be better in 2023, this still looks like a ground-based attack. As such, Burks is best viewed as a WR4.
With Robert Woods gone, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine should start opposite Burks (barring additional acquisitions). The former Hoosier was as close to a big-play threat as the passing game had last year, and his 15.9 yards per catch led the club. Westbrook-Ikhine only caught half of his 50 targeted balls, though, and has a long way to go before making fantasy owners learn another hyphenated name.
Tight end preview
Even with veteran Austin Hooper on the depth chart, Chigoziem Okonkwo finished second on the team in receiving yardage, gaining 450 yards on 32 receptions (a healthy 14.1 YPC) as a rookie. The team looks ready to turn the starting job over to Okonkwo with Josh Whyle drafted as the backup. He’s barely draftable at this point, but Okonkwo is at least someone whose name should be added to your watch list.
Sleeper/breakout candidates
Kelly did a nice job during the first two years of his three-year run in Houston with an offense that ranked 13th each year. The hope is he can squeeze more explosiveness out of Tennessee’s passing game, and if he does, Treylon Burks is the logical beneficiary. As your WR4, he could return decent value.
Bust potential/overvalued players
To be a bust, there must be expectations. Looking at the Titans, only one player looks like an ironclad fantasy starter, and that’s Derrick Henry. The pathway to underperformance for Henry is clear. Years of heavy use either: a) break down his body and he misses time, or b) the Titans give more touches to Spears and/or Haskins.
