Six of the eight new NFL head coaches are from the defensive side of the ball, which makes their choices at offensive coordinator that much more important. The two head men with a background coaching the offense — Dave Canales and Brian Callahan — both intend to call plays in addition to being their respective team’s final decision maker.
We’ll focus mostly on offensive changes for two primary factors: Fantasy defenses typically are interchangeable week to week and aren’t nearly as consequential, and defensive fantasy production tends to be far more personnel-driven than schematic success, outside of a few proven systems.
Head coaching changes
Raheem Morris, Atlanta Falcons: A longtime NFL coach on both sides of the ball and former head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2009-11), Morris gets his second shot at leading this franchise. The Falcons flirted with Bill Belichick but instead opted to reunite with Morris, the team’s defensive coordinator and interim head coach in 2020. He spent 2015-19 in Atlanta coaching everything from defensive backs to wide receivers, most receiving serving as Los Angeles Rams defensive coordinator. Jimmy Lake was hired to man the defense, while Zac Robinson followed Morris from LA and will head up the offense. Atlanta’s chief concern is finding a franchise quarterback, and everything else pales in comparison. The class of free agents is practically barren, so the draft is where we should expect find Atlanta’s next starting passer.
Dave Canales, Carolina Panthers: Not too unlike Morris’ task at hand of developing a quarterback, Canales will the in charge of doing the same thing in Carolina. The main difference is we already know the name of said QB — last year’s top pick, Bryce Young. The 2023 season wasn’t kind to the rookie, but there’s reason to be hopeful with Canales’ success in getting the most out of Baker Mayfield last year and Geno Smith the prior season in Seattle. Carolina earned the No. 1 pick for its futility but had previous traded the rights to Chicago for the Young selection. Canales, who will call the plays, won’t have a star-studded cast of receivers for his QB project this time around, barring an unforeseen investment and/or personnel emergence. There’s a notable difference between resurrecting a veteran passer and grooming a rookie. Expect a rocky start to his first year as the head coach, and the Panthers have a long road ahead before we’re looking at fantasy staples coming from this offense.
Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas Raiders: For the second time in as many dismissed Raiders regimes, the interim head coach admirably replaced his predecessor. However, unlike when Rich Bisaccia replaced Jon Gruden and was failed to be hired as the next head man, Pierce was indeed retained without the interim label attached. He retained defensive coordinator Patrick Graham to captain that side of the ball has tabbed Luke Getsy as the offensive counterpart. This move will bring a West Coast flavor of offense to Vegas that focuses on the running game. Expect an offensive design loosely modeled after that of the Green Bay Packers and LA Rams. First and foremost, finding an adequate starting quarterback needs to be resolved before it’s even remotely possible to speculate on any fantasy implications. We believe that will come through the NFL draft.
Jim Harbaugh, Los Angeles Chargers: He last coached a pro franchise in 2014, and Harbaugh’s Michigan Wolverines won a national championship prior to him jumping back into the ranks of the NFL. The former San Francisco 49ers leader went 49-22-1 (.688) in his four years with the franchise, narrowly losing a Super Bowl vs. Baltimore in the 2014 season. Harbaugh named Jesse Minter to the defensive coordinator spot, and Greg Roman was hired to run the offense. Harbaugh brings stability to a talented roster that has considerable fantasy pieces in place, and it’s tough to envision LA not being one of the more competitive teams under his leadership.
Jerod Mayo, New England Patriots: A defensive-minded rookie replacing arguably the best head coach the game has ever known, Mayo has a tough task ahead. One may even argue he has been inadvertently set up for failure. The roster has enough defensive pieces to remain competitive in that regard, but the passing game is about as barren as one will find around the NFL. Alex Van Pelt was brought in to right the ship on offense, though he never called plays in his four years as the Cleveland OC. Presumably, we’ll see a form of the West Coast system in New England. But it all comes down to drafting the correct quarterback at No. 3 overall and putting adequate pieces around him from the jump. If that drags on, we could be looking at a short tenure for Mayo.
Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks: Macdonald’s first shot at becoming a head coach comes after the surprise dismissal of Pete Carroll. There’s a considerable amount of talent and veteran leadership on both sides of the ball, which certainly helps make the transition smoother than some of his coaching freshmen counterparts. Seattle reportedly hired Ryan Grubb and Aden Durde as offensive and defensive coordinator, respectively. We’ll do a wholesale evaluation of this team after the draft, but it’s fair to be skeptical about a first-time NFL OC under a rookie head coach.
Brian Callahan, Tennessee Titans: The son of a longtime NFL head coach, Callahan gets his first opportunity as the leader of a team after spending five seasons as the nominal offensive coordinator in Cincinnati. He’ll call the plays after hiring Nick Holz as OC, turning the defensive keys over to Dennard Wilson. Tennessee faces several personnel deficiencies on both sides of the ball, namely at wide receiver. Quarterback is presumably settled with Callahan professing his excitement for working with Will Levis, but it’s unclear if Tyjae Spears will be the workhorse replacement if (when) Derrick Henry leaves in free agency this spring. This Sean McVay-derivative system should lean on a more balanced attack than under Mike Vrabel. We’ll go into greater depth in our team preview series once free agency and the draft fully mold the personnel, but Tennessee should be on the offensive upswing.
Dan Quinn, Washington Commanders: Quinn gets his second crack at a head-coaching gig with a team that has some pieces in place to be competitive … with the right tweaks. From a fantasy perspective, the defensive-minded Quinn will rely on Kliff Kingsbury to call the shots on offense. Could Kyler Murray be dealt to Washington? It’s not entirely impossible, for how unlikely it may be. What we do know: The 2024 starting quarterback isn’t on this roster yet. Holding the second-overall pick guarantees a shot at one of the top passers in the draft class, and it’s entirely possible Washington will have its choice of the entire lot if Chicago stays put and doesn’t choose a QB. There’s just too much uncertainty there, but the hiring of Kingsbury at least gives Quinn a veteran play caller on his staff with a system that has generated ample fantasy points in the past.
Offensive coordinator changes
Brad Idzik, Carolina Panthers: Dave Canales will call the plays, rendering Idzik a game planner and coordinator in name only. Expect him to have a large role in designing weekly attack plans as well as helping impart Canales’ system.
Dan Pitcher, Cincinnati Bengals: Pitcher replaces Brian Callahan as the offensive coordinator, though the expectation is Zac Taylor will continue to call plays. Pitcher should serve as a game-plan coordinator and help identify possible in-game adjustments.
Ken Dorsey, Cleveland Browns: Cleveland replaces Alex Van Pelt with Dorsey, who was relieved from his duties by Buffalo during the season. Dorsey was canned after the Wild Card loss to Houston in a scapegoating move given that head coach Kevin Stefanski calls the plays. It remains unclear whether Dorsey will be asked to take over this role.
Shane Waldron, Chicago Bears: Waldron comes from the Sean McVay branch of the Mike Shanahan tree and spent the last three years calling the plays in Seattle. Under his tutelage, in conjunction with then-QBs coach Dave Canales, Geno Smith produced a career year in 2022. Waldron’s system is balanced in the context of today’s pass-heavy NFL, but last year saw a significant spike in the aerial side of the ratio. The No. 1 priority here is to get the most out of Justin Fields, presuming he indeed stays put. The Bears have some talent voids to address at running back and in the aerial game, but that’s not to say this offense is entirely without playmakers. The overall fantasy outlook starts and ends with Fields’ continued maturation, and we’ll extensively cover this situation following the NFL draft.
Luke Getsy, Las Vegas Raiders: Antonio Pierce turned to former the Chicago Bears play caller as his new offensive coordinator. Getsy brings in a West Coast system that will be run-centric but also can scheme for quarterback mobility and a read-option element, depending on what Vegas does at quarterback this offseason. In two seasons with the Bears — faced with a shaky offensive line and feeble wideouts not named DJ Moore — Getsy’s offense went from the most run-heavy design in 2022 to the second-most balanced offense a year ago. An unclear quarterback and running back situation removes all ability to project a with any accuracy … stay tuned.
Greg Roman, Los Angeles Chargers: San Francisco’s offensive coordinator from 2011-14 under Jim Harbaugh. The duo is reunited with the same role relationship a decade later, though it looked for a moment as if Roman wouldn’t be the OC this time around. He brings scheme versatility to the offense after having implemented a few successful designs in his coaching career, notably helping improve quarterbacks Alex Smith, Colin Kaepernick, and Lamar Jackson. Roman can come out in a three-wide base and use a varied route tree to create mismatches on one play and follow it up with a read-option look that also has defenders guessing what’s next. We can expect a hearty reliance on the run and play-action passing. Given Justin Herbert’s underrated athleticism, the fantasy needle is pointing north for this entire offense.
Alex Van Pelt, New England Patriots: Van Pelt comes over from Cleveland where he was the OC in name only as head coach Kevin Stefanski called the plays. He should implement a variation of the West Coast system that focuses on a balanced attack. New England’s offense will get a complete overhaul from quarterback to tight end, with running back Rhamondre Stevenson being the lone proven commodity expected to return. Given all of the changes and a starting rookie quarterback leading the way, there will be more bumps in the road than not.
Klint Kubiak, New Orleans Saints: Kubiak’s lone year as a full-time offensive coordinator came in 2021 with Minnesota, and it was rather successful, but he headed to Denver after Mike Zimmer was fired by the Vikings. Kubiak would take over during the 2022 season as the play caller in Nathaniel Hackett’s one-and-done before heading to San Francisco to be its passing game coordinator. New Orleans will rebrand with a purer form of the West Coast offense, one in which Derek Carr should feel his most comfort since the Jon Gruden days. There’s a strong chance both he and Chris Olave post QB1 and WR1 season-long stats, respectively.
Kellen Moore, Philadelphia Eagles: Moore was a rising star as a freshman play caller in 2019 with the Dallas Cowboys before being let go ahead of a one-year stint as the Los Angeles Chargers OC. Philadelphia lost its offensive and defensive coordinators after the 2022 Super Bowl appearance, and it really showed, especially on defense. Moore’s one-and-done in LA isn’t entirely his fault given all of the injuries and firing of his head coach. He brings experience with maximizing a multitude of personnel strengths and arguably is at his best when scheming creating presnap mismatches. He has history both relying on a lone back as well as spreading the wealth, too. The passing game should be Philly’s true bright spot once again, and Jalen Hurts’ versatile nature will transition smoothly.
Arthur Smith, Pittsburgh Steelers: Smith was brought in to captain the offense after a co-coordinator situation filled in following Matt Canada’s inseason firing. Smith, the former offensive coordinator in Tennessee and Atlanta head coach, is known for his commitment to the ground game as well as playing backfield tricks on fantasy gamers. Look for a hearty dose of both Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren in maddening splits from week to week, but all eyes will be on Smith’s efforts to get the most out of third-year passer Kenny Pickett this offseason.
Ryan Grubb, Seattle Seahawks: The University of Washington OC, QBs coach and assistant head coach of the last two seasons, Grubb reportedly has been hired by Seattle to call the offense. He has not coached at all in the NFL, but his Huskies are coming off an impressive season that ended in a loss to Michigan in the championship game. Grubb ran more than 80% of the snaps out of shotgun and pistol formations with the immobile Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback. Given Geno Smith is only slightly more athletic, it wouldn’t surprise us to see such an offensive design be implemented in Seattle this year. We’ll delve deep into this one after the draft.
Liam Coen, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Coen returns to the NFL ranks after a year away to coach in college to replace Dave Canales, who parlayed a one-year stint into the head job in Carolina. Coen came up under Sean McVay and has a lone season as an NFL offensive coordinator, which came during the Rams’ injury-ravaged 2022 campaign, which makes judging his abilities extremely challenging. Look for a system that balances the play-calling ratio, focuses on play-action passing, and emphasizes presnap motion to create mismatches. Tampa has two major questions in free agency with Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans eligible to test the market. While it is certainly possible both return, making any serious judgment calls on the outlook of this offense is pointless in the interim.
Nick Holz, Tennessee Titans: New head coach Brian Callahan will call the plays, though he had not done so during his time in Cincinnati. Holz will serve as a game planner.
Kliff Kingsbury, Washington Commanders: The coaching reset in Washington lead to the former Arizona Cardinals head coach joining Dan Quinn’s staff. Known for implementing his version of the “Air Raid” offense, Kingsbury’s iteration never really took off in the NFL. He will likely be asked to mold another first-round rookie quarterback just as he did with Kyler Murray. The bulk of Washington’s key performers remain under contract, with running back Antonio Gibson and WR Curtis Samuel the only notable names set to hit the market. Washington — provided it scores big with its rookie quarterback decision — is not all that far away from fielding multiple weekly fantasy contributors.
Defensive coordinator changes
Jimmy Lake, Atlanta Falcons: Lake was a defensive coordinator at the University of Washington for a few years before becoming the school’s head coach from 2020-21. He spent 2022 out of football and returned to serve as Sean McVay’s assistant head coach last year and has extensive history as a defensive backs coach in college and the NFL. He followed Raheem Morris to Atlanta and will immediately be tasked with creating more turnovers from a defense that generated just 16 takeaways a year ago. The Falcons finished as the sixth-worst fantasy defense, so expecting a marked turnaround in year year may be asking a bit much.
Zach Orr, Baltimore Ravens: Promoted from being the team’s inside linebackers coach, Orr doesn’t have to do much more than “not screw it up” to keep the Ravens in the DT1 conversation during 2024. Baltimore needs to address some potential free-agent departures in DT Justin Madubuike, safety Geno Stone, and LB Patrick Queen, but there’s a lot to work with for Orr.
Bobby Babich, Buffalo Bills: Babich has grown up as an assistant under Sean McDermott since 2017, so the likelihood of a wholesale changes is limited. This marks his first chance as a defensive play caller at any level. There’s ample talent to make Buffalo a top-end fantasy unit here, and Babich will be able to lean on the knowledge of his defensive-minded head coach when needed, but one has to be wary of the rash of serious injuries this defense has faced of late. The Bills won’t have much money to spend, and an aging secondary also is disconcerting.
Eric Washington, Chicago Bears: Chicago’s defense flashed a little in fantasy last year with 22 interceptions tying San Francisco for the league lead. However, the 30 sacks recorded ranks second fewest, and all but two teams logged more fumble recoveries. With more pressure comes more turnovers — most of the time, anyway. Washington started as an intern with Chicago in 2010 before mostly serving as defensive line coach for Carolina and Buffalo, but he was the Panthers DC in 2018 and ’19 with modest results in fantasy.
Mike Zimmer, Dallas Cowboys: The longtime Minnesota Vikings head coach (2014-21) took some time away from the pro game and returns to his roots as a defensive coordinator, replacing Dan Quinn, marking his second stint as Dallas’ DC (2000-06). The Cowboys have an immensely talented crop of players and only need to address impending free-agent cornerback Stephon Gilmore, who wants to return, plus a few role players. CB Trevon Diggs (knee) will return, and Micah Parsons remains one of the premier talents on this side of the ball. Zimmer spent the last two seasons consulting for Deion Sanders in the collegiate ranks. The 67-year-old has extensive experience with the 3-4 and 4-3 alignments, creating scheme versatility to take advantage of all that Parsons offers.
Jeff Hafley, Green Bay Packers: Much-maligned coordinator Joe Barry was finally relieved of his duties, and the Packers turned to the collegiate ranks to hire Hafley. He spent the last five years between Ohio State (co-DC and DBs) and most recently Boston College (head coach). Green Bay is poised to return the majority of its defensive personnel, though the secondary needs some attention. Expect a rebound performance in 2024 after last year’s bottom-eight finish.
Ryan Nielsen, Jacksonville Jaguars: The veteran defensive line coach caught a break in 2022 as a co-defensive coordinator with the New Orleans Saints before being the full-time DC last year with Atlanta. He doesn’t have a great deal of experience and takes over a midrange fantasy defense from a year ago that has an expensive decision to make with impending free-agent linebacker Josh Allen.
Jesse Minter, Los Angeles Chargers: Jim Harbaugh went to his Michigan well to recruit Minter to follow him into the pros, which will be their second stint in the NFL. Minter, though, previously coached for Harbaugh’s brother in Baltimore from 2017-20, working with defensive backs. He became Vanderbilt’s coordinator in 2021 and then went to Michigan for consecutive years as DC. Minter, the son of a coach, is a student of the game and was extremely successful in his short stint with the Wolverines. The Bolts have a wealth of defensive talent and should improve upon last year’s 10th-worst fantasy showing.
Chris Shula, Los Angeles Rams: A college teammate of Sean McVay, Shula has been on the coaching staff in LA since 2017. He has focused mostly on coaching linebackers and defensive backs, but this will be his first opportunity to call plays in the pros. He last was a DC in 2014 for John Carroll University. The grandson of legendary coach Don Shula learned under Wade Phillips and Raheem Morris. The Rams overperformed in a real-life sense given the defense is largely comprised of no-name talent, but LA offered basically nothing last year in fantasy, so it shouldn’t be too difficult to improve upon the fourth-worst placement.
Anthony Weaver, Miami Dolphins: Miami’s fantasy defense was good for a third-place finish in 2023 after amassing a load of talent in recent years. Weaver replaces Vic Fangio, and this will be his second time as an NFL defensive coordinator. He guided Houston to being the fourth-worst fantasy group in 2020. Most of his coaching experience has been as a defensive line instructor, which makes sense given that was Weaver’s NFL position. Defensive tackle Christian Wilkins is set to hit free agency, and Miami is in a massive financial hole, so we could see some bloodletting to get under the cap.
DeMarcus Covington, New England Patriots: Covington was promoted from within and has been a defensive assistant since 2017. New head coach Jerod Mayo assembled the game plan during the week, and Steve Belichick called the in-game defensive plays. Covington has some experience with the process, though, as Bill Belichick ensured a turnkey operation when it came to teaching multiple assistants how to play the role of DC. There’s ample talent set to return, but if the offense cannot improve, it’s tough to see this defense getting off the field enough to stay fresh late in to games. New England was the seventh-weakest defense in fantasy last year, and a serious improvement shouldn’t be counted on.
Shane Bowen, New York Giants: Under his predecessor, Wink Martindale, the Giants were a blitz-happy unit. Expect that to change in 2024 with a less aggressive approach under Bowen, but what remains unknown is just how much influence Mike Vrabel had over the defensive play calling during Bowen’s three years ad Tennessee’s DC. Bowen’s first year in that role was quite impressive, but personnel changes, tougher schedules, and flailing offensive efforts converged to prevent him from replicating such success. In New York, while some individual talent certainly exists, the pass rush needs to retool to make serious strides after ranking 29th in sacks last year. That said, this unit still finished No. 8 in fantasy points.
Vic Fangio, Philadelphia Eagles: A one-year stop in Miami saw his talent-laden defense produce the third-best fantasy showing. The well-traveled Fangio and the Dolphins mutually parted ways so the 65-year-old could move closer to his family, which helped navigate him to Philly. The Eagles have more than enough talent to get back on track after last year’s change at DC led to a precipitous fall in fantasy. Expect a strong bounce-back effort from the aggressive coaching of Fangio.
Nick Sorensen, San Francisco 49ers: The scapegoating of defensive coordinator Steve Wilks on Valentine’s Day led to a two-week search before the Niners promoted Sorensen from defensive passing game coordinator. He came up under Pete Carroll and has been on the San Francisco staff since 2022. Former Los Angeles Rams defensive coordinator and Los Angeles Chargers head coach Brandon Staley was hired to serve as assistant head coach and, presumably, a top defensive consultant to the first-year DC. The talent alone on this side of the ball should keep San Fran in the mix for top-10 fantasy units.
Aden Durde, Seattle Seahawks: Durde served as the defensive line coach in Dallas for the past three seasons and reportedly agreed to join Mike Macdonald’s staff as the defensive coordinator, though the head coach will call plays, at least to open the season. Durde previously was an the outside linebackers coach for Atlanta in 2021 after initially joining that staff as a quality control coach. Until (if) he gets to call plays, Durde’s role will be that of a game planner.
Dennard Wilson, Tennessee Titans: Wilson, a veteran NFL defensive backs coach, takes over a for Matt Bowen and will lead Brian Callahan’s defense, a unit that managed 45 sacks in 2023. Tennessee couldn’t translate moderate pressure into takeaways, registering only 14 in total, and this group finished with only 4.6 fantasy points, on average, which ranked fifth from the bottom of the NFL. The Titans may need to refashion its secondary to account for four impending free agents, and playing in the blossoming AFC South no longer is a fantasy edge to bank on. Temper your expectations.
Joe Whitt Jr., Washington Commanders: With an NFL coaching resume dating back to 2007, this will be Whitt’s first chance to call the shots on defense. He primarily coached secondaries, and head coach Dan Quinn will allow Whitt to do his job in full. Most recently, he served as the secondary coach/passing game coordinator in Dallas, a unit that has been as successful as anyone when it comes to generating big plays. After trading away its two best pass rushers, Whitt’s new defensive crew will need to rework from the trenches outward before anyone should take this group seriously in fantasy.
