Puka Nacua suffered a knee injury in camp last Sunday, and he is week-to-week in the preseason. According to Head Coach, Sean McVay, there is no structural damage, it's a burst bursa sac. Bursa are fluid filled sacs used to prevent a tendon from rubbing on a bone. Should that affect where you draft the sophomore pass-catcher?
Puka Nacua took the fantasy world by storm last year, seemingly out of nowhere to finish as the fantasy WR4. You're on the clock and you have to choose between Puka Nacua and Garrett WIlson. Garrett Wilson accumulated more than 1,000 receiving yards despite having to play with a combination of Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle. Who should you choose?
Let's break it down.
Offense
Nacua fits perfectly into the Sean McVay offense, which is absolutely loaded. Matthew Stafford remains one of the league's best quarterbacks, and he's joined by running back Kyren Williams, tight end Tyler Higbee, and a pair of star receivers in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Nacua took advantage of Kupp's injury last season and grabbed the alpha role to start the season. Nacua averaged 9.4 targets per game last season and logged an impressive 1,486 receiving yards and six receiving touchdowns. Nacua saw 35.38% of the team's air yards. However, if Kupp is healthy this season, and early reports from camp say Kupp looks great, some regression should come for Nacua.
The Rams averaged the 10th most passing yards per game (239) and the 14th most passing attempts last season.
In New York, the Jets offense under Nathaniel Hackett left much to be desired. However, we did not see steady quarterback play all season, and Aaron Rodgers will be a significant boost in that category. One stat that does stand out from 2023: despite only three receiving touchdowns and 1,042 receiving yards, Garrett Wilson owned the largest share of air yards for a team in the NFL (45.63%). He also averaged 9.9 targets per game, slightly more than Nacua. It's hard to understate how much of an upgrade Wilson will be getting even with an aging Aaron Rodgers. Wilson is due for positive regression and is the clear alpha in this offense with no real competition. Yes, Mike Williams is further along than expected, but he is just ramping back up. Even when fully healthy, Williams will be more of a big-play threat than a volume option.
More evidence that the Jets had a QB problem: New York averaged just 171 passing yards per game (30th in the NFL) despite having the 11th-most pass attempts (601).
Edge: Puka Nacua
Quarterback
As mentioned above, Matt Stafford remains one of the league's best quarterbacks, and he likes to sling it. He had the second-most pass attempts over 30 yards in 2023. Stafford averaged 264.3 passing yards, 1.6 TD passes, and 16.9 fantasy points per game last season, which is not too bad for his age 35 season. However, he also posted just a 62.6% completion rate, his lowest mark since 2014. Entering his age 36 season, Stafford is approaching the twilight of his career. We could see some decline this season.
Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles tendon on the fourth snap with the Jets of the 2023 season. Rodgers, now 40 years old, spent all of 2023 rehabbing from the injury to his right Achilles. The good news for Rodgers is that the injury occurred to his lead/plant foot, not his power/drive foot. If he loses any velocity this season, it is just as likely due to age as to injury.
Aaron Rodgers already had a late-career comeback with the Packers under coach Matt LaFleur and OC Nathaniel Hackett, winning consecutive NFL MVP awards in his 2020 and 2021 seasons. Then, in 2022, after losing WR Davante Adams to the Raiders and Hackett to the Broncos, Rodgers showed significant regression, throwing a career-high 12 interceptions and passing for a mere 26 touchdowns and a career-low 217 passing yards per game.
It's hard to bet on an aging quarterback who just took a year off for injury and will be playing for a new team for the first time in his career at age 40. However, a four-time MVP with much to prove should be a boon for Garrett Wilson. Davante Adams was the number one fantasy receiver the last time Nathaniel Hackett and Aaron Rodgers teamed up. That could be the ceiling for Wilson, as it's clear Hackett schemes for the alpha, and Rodgers has his favorites.
Edge: Puka Nacua
Skills
It's hard to overstate what an impression Nacua made his first year in the league. Nacua averaged 9.4 targets and 87.4 receiving yards per game with six total touchdowns. He was a yards-after-catch monster, with 632, the fifth-most in the league. That makes up for his 9.1 average depth of target (aDOT) being in the bottom 32% of the league. If it weren't for some guy named CJ Stroud, Nacua would have walked away with an Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
It's worth mentioning that Puka also led the league in drops.
As mentioned previously, Wilson had a significant disadvantage with his quarterback situation. Even so, he averaged 9.9 targets (seventh) and 61.3 receiving yards per game. He only totaled three total touchdowns in 2022. In his rookie season, Wilson logged 1104 receiving yards with 21 fewer targets with four touchdowns. That season, he benefited from slightly better quarterback play, though Wilson has yet to see any consistency at the NFL level from his passer. The Jets ranked 30th in adjusted completion rate and 27th in catchable target rate in 2023. Wilson, a first-round pick in 2022 out of Ohio, has the pedigree that suggests steady quarterback play is all he needs to become a true fantasy WR1.
No player had a higher team air yards share than Garrett Wilson in 2023 (45.63%)
Edge: PUSH
Betting Insights
Anyone who follows my content knows I love to use the Sportsbook as a cheat code. Let's face it: Las Vegas is rarely wrong.
According to DraftKings, Garrett Wilson's receiving yards are set at 1125.5. Puka Nacua's yards are set at 1150.5. Nacua has a slight edge in yards.
Here's where we may get a hint, though. It looks like the books are counting on positive touchdown regression for Wilson. That can add up in the fantasy stat sheets.
Garrett Wilson's touchdowns are set at 7.5, with the over juiced to -130.
Puka Nacua's touchdowns are set at 6.5, with the under juiced to -130.
Slight Edge: Garrett Wilson
Durability
Garrett Wilson played all 17 games in both his freshman and sophomore seasons and has no serious injury history, though there are some questions about the safety of the MetLife turf.
Puka Nacua's physical play style could make him more prone to injury, but he did not miss a single game during his rookie season. In addition, Rams wide receiver coach Eric Yarber said Nacua's off-season training program has been effective. Yarber says he has "lost so much body fat and gained so much lean muscle, which enables him to move more efficiently now." For now, we will not hold this minor preaseason knee injury against him.
Edge: PUSH
Strength of Schedule
Both wideouts have a relatively easy schedule, but Wilson's is better- especially during Weeks 14-16 for your fantasy playoffs. In those weeks, the Jets will face the Dolphins, the Jaguars, and, in Week 17, the Los Angeles Rams. Puka's matchup with the Jets in Week 17 is not ideal.
Edge: Garrett Wilson
Winner: Garrett Wilson
I know this is contrary to every fantasy wide receiver rankings list, but I just keep coming back to the opportunity for Wilson.
When I wrote this article, the last thing I checked was the betting markets. They confirmed my gut feeling. With catchable targets, Wilson should have far more than three touchdowns and 1,000 yards this season.
These players are so incredibly close that you can't go wrong with either, but I'd rather bet on Wilson's positive regression than that Nacua can repeat his stellar rookie season with Cooper Kupp back in the mix.
Simply put, I think Wilson will have even more opportunity in Hackett's offense, where he has little to no competition for the alpha role. With more on-target passes and red zone looks, we could be looking at Aaron Rodgers' next Davante Adams. Aaron Rodgers has often peppered his number one recevier with 10+ targets per game, and he has a career 6% touchdown rate. Wilson has the potential to finish Top 3 at the position.
But here's the best news: Wilson and Nacua have been going right at the 12/13 turn in early drafts. If you're picking at the end of Round 1, you can get both. That's a pretty sexy PPR start.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Fantasy Football Rankings: Puka Nacua vs. Garrett Wilson .
