Making the right choice can be the difference between winning and losing, both in the National Football League and in the world of fantasy football. Case in point. In the 2010 NFL draft, the Bengals had the No. 21 overall pick. Needing a tight end, they selected Jermaine Gresham out of Oklahoma. They picked him ahead of another tight end out of Arizona who fell to Round 2 … Rob Gronkowski.
Gresham had a decent career in the NFL, but it wasn’t even close to what the man we call Gronk accomplished. He’ll be heading to the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
The Bengals chose poorly.
The same sort of thing happens in fantasy football. If you make the wise choice, it can lead you to a championship. Make the wrong one, and you can be left feeling like former Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis and general manager Mike Brown.
With that said, I’ve been working on a new series for SI Fantasy looking at two players from the same position who have a near identical average draft position (ADP) and telling you who you should pick.
- Head-to-Head Series: Lamar Jackson or Trevor Lawrence | Justin Fields or Justin Herbert | Nick Chubb or Derrick Henry | Rhamondre Stevenson or Travis Etienne | Kenneth Walker III or Jahmyr Gibbs | Ja’Marr Chase or Cooper Kupp | CeeDee Lamb or Davante Adams | DK Metcalf or Deebo Samuel | Dallas Goedert or Darren Waller
We’ve gone through the quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers, and I’ll continue with the tight ends. This look pits two of the position’s biggest names, Mark Andrews and T.J. Hockenson. In the National Fantasy Football Championships, they’re coming off the board within eight picks of one another, between Rounds 3-4.
So, who’s the right call? Let’s break it down.
Offenses
In Baltimore, the Ravens will have a new offensive coordinator in Todd Monken. His offenses in Tampa Bay (2016-18) and Cleveland (2019) combined to average 532.5 pass attempts. In two of those seasons, his offenses ranked in the top six in passing percentage. Only once in that time period did Monken’s system produce a top-12 ranking in pass percentage to his tight ends. On a positive note, he did have a top-10 fantasy tight end (Cameron Brate) in PPR formats in both 2016 and ’17. Monken has also never had a tight end as talented as Andrews in his offense.
Kevin O’Connell is heading into his second season as the Vikings head man and has been a coordinator or coach in the NFL in each of the last four campaigns. His offenses put up an average of 639.5 pass attempts a game in the last two seasons, including 672 last season. Only the Buccaneers and Chargers had more. O’Connell has also seen his offense target the tight ends over 21% of the time in two of the last three years. That includes 21.7% last season, which was mostly to Hockenson.
Winner: Push
Receiving Skills
Andrews has averaged more than 12 fantasy points in three of his last four years, one of which was 2021 when he led the league with an average of 17.7 points a game. Over the last two years, Andrews has seen at least 113 targets and averaged more than eight per game. He’s also averaged 5.6 catches during that time. The veteran has also produced 27 big plays (20-plus yards) in that time, second only to Travis Kelce’s 32. Andrews is also fourth among tight ends in yards after the catch.
Hockenson is coming off his best fantasy season, scoring 215.4 PPR points while averaging 12.7 points per game. Only Kelce ranked higher in total points scored at the position. He was particularly productive after being traded to the Vikings, as he saw 8.6 targets per game and averaged nearly 13 points in 10 contests. While he had just one catch over 20 yards in that time, Hockenson was fifth in red-zone looks, seventh in yards after the catch and tied for second in broken tackles.
Winner: Andrews
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Quarterbacks
Andrews will continue to catch passes from Lamar Jackson in what should become a more pass-friendly offense under Monken. In 68 career games together, Andrews has averaged four catches, more than 53 yards and has scored 31 touchdowns. It’s also notable that no quarterback (minimum 30 games) has targeted tight ends more often than Jackson over the last three years. In fact, he’s the lone signal-caller in the league to target the position on over 31% of his pass attempts in that time period.
Hockenson had his greatest fantasy success catching passes from Kirk Cousins a season ago. In the 10 games they played together, the veteran quarterback threw 24.5% of his pass attempts to the tight ends (most notably, Hockenson). The Iowa product was also very reliable in the stat sheets, scoring double-digit fantasy points in six of 10 games, including a 35.9-point explosion against the Giants in Week 16.
Winner: Andrews
Durability
Andrews has been very durable in his pro career, playing in at least 14 games in each of his five seasons in the league. He missed one contest last year due to shoulder strain, and another in 2019 with a bum ankle. Otherwise, Andrews has either avoided or been able to perform through various bumps and bruises.
Hockenson has also been a mostly reliable player at the NFL level, playing in at least 12 games in each of his four seasons. He did miss five games in 2021 with an injured thumb, however, and he was out of action for four games in 2019 due to a bum ankle. Hockenson has played in a full slate of games in two of his last three years, so there's no real proneness to injuries for fantasy fans to consider.
Winner: Andrews
Brace Hemmelgarn/USA TODAY Sports
Strength of Schedule
Andrews has a huge advantage in the schedule department, as the Ravens have the third easiest slate of games based on last year’s fantasy points allowed data. Andrews will face the Titans, Lions, Cardinals and Seahawks, all of whom were among the 10 easiest defenses for tight ends to score points against last season. He’ll also get to face the Jaguars in the fantasy postseason. Hockenson, on the flip side, has the third toughest slate. He will face the Packers (twice), Bears (twice), Saints, 49ers and Packers overall, though Hockenson will get some positive matchups against the Lions and Bengals during the fantasy postseason.
Winner: Push
And the Pick Is…
Andrews is the winner here, but it’s close. He’s had a longer resume of success in the stat sheets, and he’ll remain the top option for Jackson in the offense. He will have some more competition for targets this season though, as the Ravens added Odell Beckham Jr., Nelson Agholor and rookie Zay Flowers. It can also be argued that his 2021, when he averaged 17.7 points per game, was an outlier. In his three other most recent seasons, he averaged a combined 12.9 points in PPR formats.
That’s the same as Hockenson averaged during his 10 games with the Vikings last season. Sure, it’s a much smaller sample size, but it’s notable. In fact, no one would be shocked if these two tight ends were within a point or less of each other on a points per game basis this upcoming season. The Vikings throw the ball a ton, as we’ve seen in Cousins’s pass attempts from last year, and Hockenson will be the favorite to be the second most targeted player behind star Justin Jefferson.
With that being said, grabbing Hockenson eight to 10 spots behind Andrews might actually make him the better draft asset (albeit it slightly) in 2023 drafts.
