You’re on the clock in your fantasy football draft, and you've decided it’s time to take a quarterback around the end of the fourth or start of the fifth round. That means Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott are both likely available. Having the right signal-caller can make or break your team. Who should you pick?
It’s a tough choice, so let’s get into the details and see if we can make some sense of them.
Offense
Dallas will enter its second season with head coach Mike McCarthy calling the plays. It’s hard to deny that the switch in play-calling was beneficial to Prescott. The Cowboys quarterback put up an MVP-caliber season in 2023, leading the league with 36 passing touchdowns and finishing as the fantasy QB3 for the season. McCarthy and Prescott will be playing for their futures, as neither is guaranteed one in Dallas.
Dallas logged 614 pass attempts (8th) and 258.6 passing yards per game (3rd) in 2023.
Cincinnati will be welcoming new offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher after former offensive coordinator Brian Callahan departed to become the new head coach of the Tennessee Titans. Pitcher was promoted from quarterbacks coach and has worked closely with Joe Burrow. Still, there could be some adjustments with a new offensive coordinator.
In 2023, Cincinnati logged 615 pass attempts in 2023, almost identical to Dallas, for 229.1 passing yards per game (15th).
Edge: Dak Prescott
Skills
Both quarterbacks are loaded with talent. Burrow, a former number-one overall pick out of LSU, immediately impressed in the NFL, leading his team to the Super Bowl in his second season. In his last completely healthy season (2022), Burrow finished as the fantasy QB4- his best fantasy finish ever. That year, Burrow threw for 4,475 yards and 35 passing touchdowns with a 68.3% completion rate and a 100.8 passer rating.
Prescott had a career year in Dallas in 2023, cutting his interceptions from a career-high 15 in 2022 to only nine last season. He also passed for 4,516 yards with 36 passing touchdowns, a league-best 69.5% completion rate among QBs with 10+ starts, and a 105.9 passer rating- second only to Brock Purdy among NFL starters. Prescott was a fourth-round draft pick in 2016 that has played better than expected despite the perceived lack of pedigree.
Prescott looked more mobile last season, rushing for 242 yards- his most since 2019. Burrow rushed for 258 in his last full healthy season (2022).
Neither of these QBs should be considered particularly mobile.
Edge: PUSH
Surrounding Cast
Joe Burrow has an elite wide receiver in Ja’Marr Chase and a WR2 who could be a WR1 on another team in Tee Higgins.
Dak Prescott has the number one fantasy receiver in Cee Dee Lamb. His WR2 is veteran Brandin Cooks, a solid player entering age 31 season.
Cooks and Higgins scored about the same amount of fantasy points per game last season, though Cooks played in 16 contests compared to Higgins’ 12. If Higgins remains healthy he should be the better weapon.
The Bengals running back room, which now consists of Zack Moss and Chase Brown after the departure of Joe Mixon to Houston, should be more capable than Dallas’s assortment, which is expected to feature Rico Dowdle and veteran Ezekiel Elliott. Cincinnati’s runners may be able to open up the passing game more for Joe Burrow.
At tight end, Dallas has an advantage. Jake Ferguson earned triple-digit targets from Prescott and finished second to Lamb in receiving yards in 2023. Mike Gesicki will be the new tight end in Cincinnati. Gesicki is a capable receiver but has not been heavily targeted since 2021. However, if Cincinnati chooses to deploy him more as a receiver, this Bengals offense could go to another level.
Finally, the offensive line. Despite losing left tackle Tyron Smith and center Tyler Biadasz in free agency, Dallas should still have a superior unit to Cincinnati, who finished 26th in 2023, per PFF. That said, Burrow has proven he can take a team to the Super Bowl with even a garbage offensive line.
Slight Edge: Joe Burrow
Durability
Joe Burrow has an unfortunate injury history. In 2020, he sustained a gruesome injury that involved an ACL tear, MCL tear, PCL tear, and partial meniscus tear. As noted above, he was able to return successfully in 2021.
However, he got off to an incredibly slow start last year due to a calf strain that was reaggravated in Week 2. In ten starts, he finished as a Top 10 QB only four times before injuring his wrist. Burrow had surgery to repair his dislocated wrist in November. Burrow tore his scapholunate ligament complex, which is crucial for wrist stability. This is not a common injury for a pro quarterback, and it is hard to know how much his touch and strength will be affected. After repair, about 80% of strength and range of motion is usually expected. However, Joe Burrow, who has a team of trainers and medical staff helping him recover, is also not an average patient.
Burrow has also sustained multiple knee sprains in his NFL career.
Dak Prescott also missed much of the 2020 season, suffering a compound fracture and a dislocation of his right ankle in a game against the New York Giants. It was surgically repaired, along with a bit of cleanup in his other ankle. Prescott also missed five games in 2022 with a thumb injury that required surgery.
Prescott played all 17 games in 2023 with no health issues. None of Prescott’s injuries appear to be nagging or recurring; however, it has been recently reported that he has a mild foot sprain, which should not impede the upcoming season. At 6'2 and 235 lbs, Prescott has a sturdy frame for a quarterback.
Edge: Prescott
Strength of Schedule
Dallas benefits from playing in the NFC East, which is expected to be far less competitive than the AFC North. The Bengals will have to face the Ravens and the Browns twice and have meetups with the Raiders, Chiefs, and Cowboys.
Edge: Prescott
Betting Insights
If you've followed my work at Sports Illustrated, you know I love to use the sportsbooks as a cheat code. Let's face it: Vegas is rarely wrong.
Currently at DraftKings, Joe Burrow's touchdowns are set at 28.5, with the over paying +110. HIs passing yards are set at 4000.5 at -105.
Dak Prescott's touchdowns are set at 30.5 with the over also paying +110. His passing yards are set at 4,105 with the over at +105.
It looks like Vegas is a bit more bullish on the Dallas field general.
Slight Edge: Dak Prescott
Winner: Dak Prescott
Both signal-callers have massive potential, but the uncertainty of Burrow’s wrist and a new offensive play-caller in Cincinnati have me picking Prescott in this spot every time. Add to that Prescott’s more manageable schedule and the fact he is in a contract year, and Prescott will be on quite a few of my fantasy squads this season.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Fantasy Football Rankings: Joe Burrow vs. Dak Prescott in 2024.
