You're on the clock in the third round, and it's time to choose a runner. Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry are available. Who should you choose?
Let's break it down.
Offense
Both players have moved to new offenses this season.
Jacobs goes to Matt LaFleur's Green Bay Packers. The Packers have a promising young signal-caller in Jordan Love, who likes to spread the ball around and is a real threat in the passing game. Last season, they went 9-8 on the back of a solid second half. They ultimately got into the playoffs and defeated the Dallas Cowboys, making them the only seventh-seed in history to win a postseason game.
The ground game for Green Bay, led by Aaron Jones when he was healthy and AJ Dillon when he was not, averaged 112 rushing yards per game last season (12th) with a mere 10 rushing touchdowns (23rd). Dillon was inefficient (3.4 yards per attempt), and it was Jones's least efficient season on the ground for his career (4.6 yards per attempt). The Packers' 441 attempts ranked 22nd in the league.
Jacobs averaged just 3.5 yards per attempt last season in Las Vegas. The Packers also added RB MarShawn Lloyd out of USC in the draft.
Certainly, Green Bay has a better offense than Las Vegas, and the offensive line is a boost for Jacobs. Still, LaFleur is unlikely to commit to one lead runner, stating, "Philosophically, no matter who the runner is, typically, we like to platoon those guys, whether it's two guys or three guys. I just think it allows the running backs to stay fresh throughout the season. … Then, when it gets down to the end of it, you've got to roll with whoever you feel gives you the best opportunity to win games."
Derrick Henry heads to the Ravens, joining the reigning MVP, Lamar Jackson, in Baltimore. This offense looked a little different with Todd Monken last season, but they still lead the league with 541 team rushing attempts. Jackson was responsible for 148 of those attempts and 821 ground yards- his most since 2020. The rest of the ground game was led by Gus Edwards, Keaton Mitchell, and Justice Hill. Edwards led the group with 810 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns. Edwards is now gone to the Chargers, and Keaton Mitchell is currently on the PUP list and is expected to miss the beginning of the season.
Henry led the league with 280 attempts for the Titans last season, averaging 4.17 yards per carry (Edwards averaged 4.09) for a total of 1,167 yards and tallied 12 rushing touchdowns.
Edge: Derrick Henry
Quarterback
As mentioned above, Love is a skilled passer who should only improve. That should open up the ground game for Jacobs. He also targeted Jones an average of four times per game for 21.2 receiving yards per game. Jacobs should continue to see some work in the passing game for Green Bay.
Lamar Jackson should cede some of the running to Henry, but he won an MVP by doing a lot of it himself. Though Jackson could steal some of the rushing yards, he is unlikely to steal the goal-line carries. Despite leading all QBs in rushing yards last season, he only tallied five rushing touchdowns. That's fewer than Joshua Dobbs and only one more than Trevor Lawrence. Henry should still be a goal-line monster. Jackson has a career 5.9% passing touchdown rate — that's better than Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Kyler Murray. Look for Monken to encourage more of it from Jackson.
Edge: Push
Skills
Josh Jacobs had a career year in 2022, rushing for a league-leading 1653 yards and logging 12 rushing touchdowns. He also was active in the receiving game with 53 catches for 400 receiving yards. For his career, Jacobs has averaged 4.2 yards per carry, 76 ground yards, and 19.8 receiving yards per game.
Last season was a disappointment. Jacobs averaged just 3.5 yards per attempt and 12.5 fantasy points per game (13th) in his 13 games played despite having 17.9 rushing attempts per game, second only to Kyren Williams. Per Fantasy Points' data, Jacobs had the 12th-highest stuff rate, ranked 37th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and just 44th in yards after contact per attempt.
Derrick Henry has logged 1,000 or more yards in five of his last six seasons, with the only outlier being in 2021, when he missed half the season due to injury. He still tallied 937 rushing yards in 2021 in fewer than eight complete games, putting him on pace for potential back-to-back 2,000-yard seasons. He led the league in rushing yards in the 2019 and 2020 seasons.
For his career, he has averaged 79.8 yards per game and 4.7 yards per attempt, which are superior to Jacobs's.
Henry logged another excellent season in 2023, with 1,167 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns (tied for 5th), despite a struggling offense, inconsistent quarterback play, and an offensive line that ranked among the worst in the NFL.
Edge: Henry
Durability
Henry has been incredibly durable throughout his career, with the broken foot in 2021 being the outlier. Even playing fewer than eight games that season, he tallied more rushing yards than most runners in an entire season (937).
The biggest knock on Henry is undoubtedly not his health- it's his age. Henry is in his age-30 season. Injury risk is less of a concern than potential age-related decline. Typically, running backs decline quickly after age 28. However, it's fair to say that Derrick Henry is far from typical.
Jacobs missed the last four games in 2023 due to a quad injury. Jacobs has been a tough player throughout his career, playing through multiple shoulder and ankle injuries.
Edge: Henry
Betting Insights
Anyone who follows my content knows I love to use the Sportsbook as a cheat code. Let's face it: Las Vegas is rarely wrong.
Here are the markets currently at DraftKings:
- Josh Jacobs's season yards are set at 950.5, with the under juiced to -135
- Henry's rushing yards are set at 975.5, with either side paying -110.
- Jacobs's season touchdowns are set at 7.5, with the under juiced to -130.
- Henry's touchdowns are set at 10.5, with either side paying -110.
Vegas is more bullish on Henry with the Ravens.
Edge: Henry
Strength of Schedule
Jacobs has arguably the worst running back schedule in the NFL this season (32nd). Henry's schedule is middle-of-the-pack (17th).
Winner: Derrick Henry
After breaking this down in detail, the only thing that concerns me about Henry is his age.
Jacobs will be more efficient with Green Bay, and I expect improvement from last season, but he will likely have fewer opportunities at the goal line, and probably in general, than Henry in Baltimore. It's closer in PPR than in standard, with Jacobs likely having more of a role in the passing game, but Henry still comes out on top.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Fantasy Football Rankings: Derrick Henry vs. Josh Jacobs .
