Every season, several proven players regress and even fall off of the fantasy football map due to injury, demotion, a poor system fit, or another unforeseen calamity. Players of the fake game understandably tend to be of the, “What has he done for me lately?” mindset and may underrate some proven options coming off a bad year.
Heading into the 2023 season, we’ll explore which players are most likely to bounce back from a down year in 2022. The players are ordered from least to most important in relation to their potential fantasy returns.
Fantasy football players on the rebound for 2023
13
QB Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
Last year’s catastrophic failure of a season for the Broncos started and ended with the embarrassingly bad play from Wilson. Though not all of it is his fault, we’re now entering the second consecutive offseason in which he appears on this list. Let us just say that our confidence in his inclusion this time around is not without some skepticism.
The good: He has an upgraded offensive line, a decent cast of targets, a pretty good running game — all the same pros as in 2022. However, this season will see one glaring difference — and for the better — in the hiring of Sean Payton to run the show. Expect a slimmed-down Wilson to look more like his pre-2021 self than the largely unplayable fantasy anchor of the past two campaigns. He’s a midrange QB2 who could push for a weekly starting spot some weeks.
12
RB Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
On raw talent alone, he’d be much higher on this list, but Williams is returning from tearing up his knee five weeks into the 2022 season. He avoided the PUP list ahead of camp, though the Broncos are expected to rely heavily on a one-two punch with Samaje Perine shouldering the bulk of the early-season workload as Williams should be on a pitch count.
Williams has youth on his side, but anyone expecting him to have his usual peppy footwork out the gates is asking for a letdown. Backs rarely shake off the rust the year following an ACL tear, let alone when such an injury is accompanied by a torn LCL and damaged posterolateral corner. Be pleased with an RB3 finish.
11
WR Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints
It’s really difficult to put much faith in Thomas after three straight seasons of injury-ravaged disappointment. He enters his age-29 season with a new quarterback and a WR1-caliber running mate in Chris Olave to alleviate some pressure and even defensive attention.
Derek Carr is the quarterback now, a notable upgrade from the hodgepodge that followed Drew Brees’ retirement. The only real issue is durability. Thomas’ talent and situation slightly outweigh the risk. A rebound of his top-dog status seems unattainable, but the veteran has a WR2 ceiling at a risk-free price tag of a fourth and sometimes even fifth option.
10
RB David Montgomery, Detroit Lions
This one should come with a caveat of Montgomery’s physical limitations cap his fantasy outlook as an RB2 even in the best of circumstances. Last year, as a member of the Chicago Bears, Monty rushed 201 times for 801 yards and five scores, chipping in another 316 yards and a lone TD on his 34 receptions. He missed one contest. The veteran jumped ship in free agency to join the rival Lions, where he’ll share the workload with Detroit’s dynamic No. 12 overall selection, Jahmyr Gibbs.
The plodding Montgomery will play more of an early-down, short-yardage role similar to how the New Orleans Saints utilized their one-two punch of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara while Lions head coach Dan Campbell was a member of that staff. Last year, we saw Jamaal Williams rush for a league-high 17 touchdowns in this offense. Don’t count on such a performance from Montgomery, though he’s capable of a 1,000-yard, 10-TD showing if granted Williams’ 266 carries from a year ago.
9
QB Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
It has been two calendar years since Watson last played a full schedule, and he looked rustier than the Upper Midwest when he did see the field last season. One thing that hadn’t lost its luster was his trademark athletic ability on the ground, so a full offseason working with teammates in an improved offensive cast of personnel should help polish his passing skills.
Cleveland sports one of football’s best offensive lines, a legitimate RB1 in Nick Chubb, a No. 1 receiver in Amari Cooper, and a supporting cast of playmakers in Elijah Moore, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and David Njoku. While the division remains among the toughest in the NFL from a defensive perspective, knowing Watson can make things happen with his legs helps offset some of that to a degree. The former Houston Texan is a No. 1 option once the primary options are no longer available, but you shouldn’t feel compelled to reach for him given the position’s depth.
8
WR Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars
We last watched Ridley play football in Week 7 of the 2021 season. He battled through mental health issues that cut short his fourth year after a 90-1,374-9 breakout line the prior campaign. In 2022, he was forced to miss the entire shebang due to a gambling suspension.
Now back and ready to roll, Ridley will suit up for the first time with Jacksonville. He has a great design for success in Doug Pederson’s West Coast offense, and quarterback Trevor Lawrence made major strides as a sophomore after a disastrous rookie showing. The Jags have multiple receiving options, so there’s always the chance Ridley doesn’t return to WR1 form, but he has a great opportunity to muster weekly starter numbers. If you can, draft him in the No. 3 range and understand the risk-reward ratio is slightly in your favor, but his current ADP (WR17) requires a leap of faith that many of us aren’t ready to make.
7
WR Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
If not for raw talent alone, Samuel probably would be lower on this list. The 49ers don’t have the need to utilize him as much as a running back as he was prior to acquiring Christian McCaffrey, so anything in that realm is a bonus. The quarterback situation has its own question marks with Brock Purdy returning from elbow surgery, Trey Lance coming back from a fractured ankle as a still-unproven passer, and Sam Darnold serving as the supposed veteran presence of the group.
Presuming Purdy returns to form and holds down the starting job, the five full games in which they played together, Samuel’s 24.8 percent of the target share led the way, but it actually was George Kittle who was more productive. At any rate, if we can get a full slate from Deebo in ’22, he’ll easily should jump from a WR36 finish last year to at least a low-end No. 2 option.
6
WR Brandin Cooks, Dallas Cowboys
Injuries have become an annual factor in the draft calculation for Cooks. He has not played a full schedule since 2018, missing two, one, one, and four games, respectively, in the following seasons. The four missed games last season were the most since his rookie year in 2014. The soon-to-be 30-year-old now heads to Dallas where Cooks will not be the No. 1 target for the first time since 2019 when he played second fiddle to Cooper Kupp.
The two previous times in Cooks’ well-traveled career in which he failed to top 1,000 yards were met with rebounds of at least 1,100 yards and six scores. The quarterback situation is a serious upgrade going to Dak Prescott, and the West Coast design shares some similarities to the modified version he played in under Sean McVay. CeeDee Lamb will command the bulk of the targets and defensive attention, freeing up Cooks to get open in the second and third levels as he does so well. It will be surprising if he does not post WR3 or better stats in aggregate this season.
5
QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
The lingering contract squabble is behind Jackson and the Ravens, and the former NFL MVP will look to regain his past form under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. The front office sacrificed the receiver position in 2022 free agency, hoping receivers on the team would step up along side All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews. It wasn’t meant to be, and Jackson himself missed a large portion of the season with an ankle injury.
Now healthy, he will have the best complement of wideouts at his disposal since entering the league. The signing of Odell Beckham Jr. after he missed all of the 2022 season, thanks to a second torn ACL, has him fully healthy and ready to prove doubters wrong. Whether he can at his stage of his career remains to be seen, and he will not be included in this list until we see more from him this offseason. At any rate, Andrews returns, OBJ is back, Rashod Bateman (foot) looks to shake off the injury-prone label, Devin Duvernay showed glimpses a year ago, and rookie burner Zay Flowers hopes to uncork a few splash plays. There’s a concern Jackson won’t run as much, but if he can make up for it with his arm then gamers will have a midtier QB1 on their hands.
4
WR Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
A high-ankle sprain that resulted in a tightrope procedure to regain stability is behind Kupp, and he’s looking to rebound after missing eight games. Unfortunately, he suffered a hamstring strain in camp that was aggravated at the end of August, so he’s not yet a lock for Week 1. The Rams have taken a step backward on defense, which should lead to more aerial attacks, and Kupp is the offense. Matthew Stafford returns as the starting quarterback after also missing time, and there’s no other clear-cut outlet for aerial work. The only other proven target with a modicum of sustained success is tight end Tyler Higbee.
Los Angeles is a team with high internal expectations and not enough talent achieve their goals. With that comes a tremendous reliance on Kupp, who was on pace for 141 receptions prior to going down last year. Few players at any position are as safe of a bet as a healthy Kupp, but the hammy setback this close to Week 1 makes him an enormous risk in relation to the investment needed to land the star wideout. Kupp has top-three WR potential in PPR, yet he’s among the riskiest players in the positional top-10 ADP rankings.
3
TE Darren Waller, New York Giants
The last two years for the former Las Vegas Raider hasn’t gone so well as injuries have derailed his ascent from a relative unknown to one of the most prolific fantasy tight ends available between 2019-20. Of the last 34 games, Waller has been on the field in just 20 contests, averaging a mere 4.2 grabs for 52.7 yards — down from 6.2 catches and 72.3 yards over the previous 32 appearances.
The Raiders shipped Waller to the Giants in the offseason for a fresh start on both sides. He immediately enters the offense as the premium passing target for Daniel Jones, and this situation has all the makings of a TE-driven aerial attack. Given the shortcomings and uncertainty at receiver, Waller’s durability is the only factor gamers should fear with regard to him returning to form.
2
TE Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
As a rookie, Pitts showed off his wide receiver-like athletic traits by averaging 15.1 yards per reception on 68 grabs, topping the 1,000-yard mark. He somehow scored only once, though. Last year, the wheels fell off. Not only did he appear in only 10 games, Pitts failed to find his place in the offense as the Falcons started with quarterback Marcus Mariota and finished the year with rookie Desmond Ridder at the helm. The sophomore tight end managed just 2.8 catches per game in a baffling display of under-utilization before ending the year on IR with a sprained knee.
Ridder will start the year as the QB1, and Pitts is expected to be at full speed by then. The duo have some must-needed chemistry building ahead, and as the offense continues to expand in Year 3 of Arthur Smith’s leadership, look for Pitts to approach top-five results for the position.
1
QB Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
How many 39-year-old, four-time MVPs have something to prove? The one with a single Super Bowl ring that came over a decade ago, for starters. Well-known penchant for playing with a chip on his shoulder, Rodgers will look to show Green Bay’s brass why he thinks they made a mistake by opting to move on.
Last year, the veteran found himself posting by far the worst fantasy stats of his career. He averaged 17.9 fantasy points, which was down from a previous low of 20.5 in 2019. The rebound in ’20 was good for another MVP award on a line of 4,299-48-5. Rodgers has a strong cast of diversified receiver talent, a promising backfield, and an offensive line that shouldn’t be anything worse than what he endured in Green Bay last season. Playing in the NFL’s offensive powerhouse conference should lead to a ton of attempts, and Rodgers is a wise wager for returning to midrange QB1 status.
