The transition from the Ben Roethlisberger era was a bumpy one as rookie Kenny Pickett and veteran Mitchell Trubisky combined to throw just 11 touchdown passes. The result was that Steelers wide receivers were virtually unplayable in fantasy leagues.
With his first full offseason of work with the coaching staff, Pickett is expected to make a big jump in terms of offensive production, but coming off a brutal first season where he had more interceptions (9) than touchdowns (7), Steelers receivers are going to be devalued when compared to more explosive offenses. Until Pickett’s ascent translates into bigger fantasy production, nobody from Pittsburgh is going to be on a “must-have” list in fantasy leagues.
George Pickens
As a second-round rookie, Pickens emerged as the most explosive player in the passing game, averaging 15.4 yards per reception (52 catches for 801 yards) and a team-high four touchdowns. What he lacked in volume (3 catches/game), he made up for with splash plays (11 games with at least one reception of 23 or more yards).
The belief is that Pickens will develop into the No. 1 receiving option, and the Pickett-to-Pickens connection will be entertaining Steelers fans for years to come. This season will be critical to seeing if both Pickens and Pickett can elevate their games to a higher level.
Diontae Johnson
Johnson was a valued fantasy asset in his first three seasons, setting new career highs for receptions, yards and touchdowns in each season – peaking at 107 catches for 1,161 yards and eight scores in 2021. Although his receiving numbers weren’t bad in 2022 (86 catches for 882 yards), he didn’t score a touchdown. That will leave a mark.
That 2023 goose egg is likely to greatly impact his fantasy value this year. Yet, he is extremely productive and consistent – he has caught five or more passes in 34 of his last 42 games. The Steelers offense runs through Najee Harris and Johnson, and he could be a steal in the draft this year given his free fall from last season if his touchdown numbers return to form.
Allen Robinson II
It wasn’t that long ago when Robinson was viewed as a fantasy stud. In 32 games with the Chicago Bears in 2019-20, he caught 200 passes for 2,397 yards and 13 touchdowns and entrenched himself as a regular fantasy starter. The last two years have been another story. In 2021, he posted modest numbers in 12 games with Chicago (38-410-1) and seemed miscast with the Los Angeles Rams last season, catching 33 passes for 339 yards and three touchdowns.
He turns 30 next month, but the Steelers thought enough of him to swing a trade with the Rams, expecting that he will become the primary slot receiver in Pittsburgh’s offense. While he will likely never have the value he did early in his Bears run, veteran slot receivers can put up a lot of fantasy points consistently if he’s on the same page with his quarterback.
Calvin Austin III
Austin spent his rookie season on injured reserve with a foot injury after being taken in the fourth round. He has legitimate sprinter speed (a 4.38-second 40), and his acceleration is elite. The biggest issue is his size – Pittsburgh is generous at listing him 5-foot-9 and just 160 pounds.
The Steelers have a rich history of developing receivers into playmakers, and they envision Austin as a smaller version of Tyreek Hill. But until we see him in the field, it’s hard to assess how he will handle press coverage and if he runs a full route tree.
Fantasy football outlook
Everything here is contingent on Pickett. He threw just seven touchdowns in 13 starts and took his lumps. For this receiver group to have any fantasy value, Pickett is going to have make to take significant steps forward.
The general consensus in ADP rankings is that both Pickens and Johnson are WR3 fantasy prospects. Most rankings have them extremely close, with Johnson getting the nod more times than not. However, Pickens big-play downfield ability is likely going to produce more big weeks, which is what you look for in a WR3 – a player who doesn’t have to be in your weekly lineup but is when he has a good matchup. That’s why if both are on the board when you pick, Pickens has a higher ceiling.
It’s hard enough to endorse two receivers for an offense that struggled as mightily as Pittsburgh did last year, but you can’t push three. Robinson is a name talent who will likely be a waiver wire pickup because of his history of big games.
There are more questions than answers here. The best draft strategy may be commit to Pickens or Johnson as a WR4, and if they’re gone before you get there, so be it.
