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Joe Summers

Fantasy Football Pick 4 Strategy: How to Draft From the 4th Spot in 2024

Bijan Robinson Football Fantasy football Breece Hall AmonRa St Brown Christian McCaffrey Rashee Rice Christian Kirk JaMarr Chase Joe Mixon

Dec 10, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) runs the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports | Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

The 4th pick is one of the most interesting pivot points in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Your decision here will create significant ripple effects not only for your team but for the league at large. There may not be one perfect answer, yet you can still build a league-winning squad in multiple ways from this spot.

FantasyPro's average draft position (ADP) data shows a clear top three in snake drafts in Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb, and Tyreek Hill in some order. If you're picking 4th in this style, which causes you to pick in reverse order in Round 2, you're missing out on the consensus elite trio and now must make a decision on who the best player in that second group is.

Barring an unusual pick at the top, drafters will either take the third receiver off the board or the second running back. Both strategies have inherent advantages and disadvantages, though can each work with the right execution.

For the purposes of this discussion, let's assume it's a 12-team PPR snake draft with one QB, two RBs, two WRs, one TE, one D/ST and one kicker.

Click ahead to jump to a round:

Round 1: Choose Your Path

If McCaffrey, Lamb, or Hill falls to the 4th pick in the draft, snatch them up without a second thought. Some drafts will feature a surprise selection, though that won't be the typical result. Using a tiered-ranking system can help inform these decisions, so keep one handy heading into the event.

Assuming those players are the top three off the board, your moment of truth begins. ADP suggests Breece Hall, Ja'Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, or Bijan Robinson are the best choices at the 4th pick.

Hall is set to lead the New York Jets' backfield and Robinson the Falcons', while the other three choices are receivers. The opportunity to select a true bell cow running back opens opportunities for the rest of your draft, though it's inherently a riskier pick than a No. 1 receiver given the frequent injuries running backs are subject to. Even Robinson was only 16th in average points per game (14.5) despite his pedigree.

That being said, Chase and Jefferson both suffered through injuries to both themselves and their respective quarterbacks. In the games he played, Chase ranked 11th in points per game (16.4), putting him a tier behind the other two options. Brown was 4th (20.7) and Jefferson was 5th (20.2).

Round 1 picks rarely single-handedly win you your league. However, enhanced risk can cost you. Brown is the safest choice at receiver, while Hall (2nd in total points and 6th in points per game) represents the safest choice at running back.

Round 2/3: Solidify Your Core

Whether you went running back or receiver in Round 1, the quick turn in Rounds 2 and 3 are when you officially solidify the core of your fantasy football team.

If you selected Hall or Robinson, both of these picks need to be receivers. There are far too many running backs and far too many injuries at the position to dare risking two of your top three selections there. No matter which strategy you choose, the wise drafter exits the first three rounds with at least two pass catchers, whether they're receivers or a game-changing tight end like Travis Kelce or Sam LaPorta.

Davante Adams (WR10 in 2023), Chris Olave (WR16), Michael Pittman (WR13), Brandon Aiyuk (WR14), and Drake London (WR37) are all strong options here at receiver. Travis Etienne (RB3) and Devon Achane (RB5 in points per game) are the top two choices at running back.

Some drafters could be tempted to select Josh Allen, but there's significant value in waiting until the middle rounds to select a quarterback. Even rookies like Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams could be weekly QB1s, yet they're going on average in Rounds 7 and 8 rather than 3 like Allen.

Maintaining roster flexibility is important after the first three rounds. Leaving with one running back and two pass catchers will let you draft the best players available moving forward instead of being shoe-horned into drafting one specific position.

That being said, taking three pass catchers could be a winning strategy as well. A core of players like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Drake London, and Chris Olave would immediately give you your league's best receiving core. In PPR leagues, that alone may put you in the driver's seat for a championship.

Rounds 4/5: Utilize Your Flexibility

The top players per ADP in this range feature guys like DJ Moore (WR6 in 2023), Stefon Diggs (WR9), DeVonta Smith (WR19), Jaylen Waddle (WR34), Joe Mixon (RB6), Alvin Kamara (RB11), Rhamondre Stephenson (RB35), Trey McBride (TE7), and QB Anthony Richardson.

Since you'll be starting two flex players, it's okay to go with a wide receiver even if you already have multiple. Even still, you should aim to leave Round 5 with at least one running back. If you selected Breece Hall or Bijan Robinson in Round 1, you could solidify your backfield core with Mixon or Kamara while still putting together a capable group of receivers.

For drafters who went heavy with pass catchers early, grabbing one of these running backs becomes even more important. However, if you took both wide receivers and running backs in the first three rounds, you can take advantage of your flexibility by targeting the best player available.

Moore is an ideal target in Round 4. He had six separate weeks with more than 20 PPR points in 2023, including two with 30+. Those explosive performances can single-handedly win your week, and he's now got Caleb Williams throwing him the football in what should be one of the NFL's most improved offenses. Mixon is the preferred choice at running back, entering an excellent Texans offense as the undisputed bell-cow after receiving a large contract in the offseason.

Once you're in Round 5, it's time to pull the trigger on Chiefs WR Rashee Rice (WR27). His value is depreciated in drafts due to the possibility he serves a suspension, though it's far more likely any punishment comes in 2025 than 2024. Rice scored in double-digits in six straight weeks to close the season and enters the 2024 campaign as Patrick Mahomes' No. 1 receiver. In the stunning event Rice is suspended, you'll have enough quality receivers to make the potential success worth the risk.

If you're tempted by a tight end, McBride is the only option. Kyler Murray's top tight end scored in double figures in five of his last six weeks, though fantasy players are likely better off chasing the upside of one of the running backs or receivers at this stage.

Rounds 6/7: Secure Your Starting Lineup

In Round 6, it's time to look at the rosters between this pick and your next one to see their positional needs. There's a short turnaround between your selections in Rounds 6 and 7, though you need to ensure you have your starting running backs and wide receivers in place.

Running back, in particular, quickly grows thin in Round 8 and beyond. Do not make the mistake of only having one running back after Round 7 or you'll have a major hole on the roster. Zamir White (RB56 in 2023 but taking over the Raiders' starting job), Najee Harris (RB23), D'Andre Swift (RB20), and Jaylen Warren (RB22) are all fine choices if you need to round out your backfield. Of that group, White and Swift offer the most intriguing upside.

If you need a receiver, Diontae Johnson (WR45), Tee Higgins (WR51), Christian Kirk (WR47), Tank Dell (39), and Terry McLaurin (WR31) are all quality choices in this range. McLaurin, Dell, and Johnson represent the most upside.

For drafters who took a balanced approach through the first six rounds, Round 7 is when it becomes acceptable to consider a quarterback. You'll have a long wait until your Round 8 pick, so players like Jordan Love (QB5) and Dak Prescott (QB3) could be worthy selections. A riskier approach would still leave you options in Rounds 8 and 9, though each fantasy football manager has to weigh the risk profile.

In most drafts, the top crop of tight ends will already be gone. There's little sense in chasing someone like Jake Ferguson (TE9) with the value on the board. If you haven't taken a tight end yet, and many shrewd drafters will not have, don't force a pick just for the sake of it. Take advantage of the latter rounds to find starters at the position and snag players with higher upside in Rounds 6 and 7.

Rounds 8/9: Last Chance for Supreme Value

For drafters who passed on a quarterback to this point, Round 9 is the last chance to get a difference-maker. If the teams drafting between you in Rounds 8 and 9 already have quarterbacks, you can wait until 9 to choose one. This is another perfect time to use your opponents' rosters to your advantage.

It's also your final opportunity to chase true league-winning upside aside from dart throws in later rounds. Rookies like Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy, Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr., and Raiders TE Brock Bowers are all players who could dramatically outperform their ADP.

At running back, Jerome Ford (RB19 in 2023) has tremendous value, especially for teams that only have two backs at this point. If you went WR-heavy early, Ford should be the choice before following up with a quarterback in Round 9. For those in need of receivers, Worthy has the highest upside in what could be a high-flying Kansas City passing game. Worthy also offers Rashee Rice insurance in the unlikely event that he is actually suspended.

Evan Engram (TE6), George Kittle (TE2), and David Njoku (TE5) are typically the last few excellent tight ends remaining and would each be wise choices. If you exit Round 9 without a tight end, your best option moving forward is drafting TJ.. Hockenson (TE4) and streaming the position each week until he fully recovers from his injury.

Your strategy in these two rounds is dependent on the picks you've already made. Look back over your roster and choose accordingly.

Later Rounds: Find Diamonds in the Rough

The final rounds are all about opportunity. Players like Adam Thielen (WR17) were picked in this range in 2023 before utilizing target share and volume to put forth excellent campaigns. When making a selection in these rounds, ask yourself if that player has enough opportunity to cash in.

Drafters who selected a running back in the first two rounds would be wise to draft that player's backup as well, a strategy called handcuffing. If your starter goes down with an injury, you'll have the backup ready to go and won't have wasted that early pick.

It's important to understand that in Rounds 10-16, you're probably not finding a real home run. Take measured risks but don't go overboard, as training camp reports notoriously cannot be fully trusted in these situations.

To get an edge over the competition, consider picking a quality D/ST and kicker a round or two early. You have to start one each week regardless, just like quarterback and tight end, so you might as well squeeze yourself an extra few points a week by choosing your favorite before your opponents do.

Targeting defenses with weak early schedules and excellent pass rushers and kickers who play in high-octane offenses and domes is a repeatedly proven strategy in these moments.

Mock Draft Examples Based on These Strategies

Find below two mock drafts using the FantasyPro's Draft Wizard tool to show roster examples using the strategies outlined above. Decide for yourself your preferred start, though remember that your Round 1 pick will determine the structure of your roster. For the purposes of these examples, the mock drafts were limited to 14 rounds though the same principles carry on for 16-round drafts.