Busts are an unavoidable aspect of the fantasy football experience. Managers try their best to avoid them, but even some players who were deemed “safe picks” will let you down week after week. Below are five players who have failed to live up to their preseason average draft position (ADP) at the halfway point of the season.
Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals
Kareem Elgazzar/USA TODAY Network
ADP: QB5
Rank: QB26
After back-to-back top-10 quarterback finishes with 35-plus passing touchdowns and over 4,500 passing yards, Burrow was seen as a safe pick in the early rounds for those not willing to pay up for the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen. But the first seven weeks of the season have been a disaster for managers who banked on Burrow. A preseason calf injury cast doubt on his status ahead of the start of the season, and though the former No. 1 pick has appeared in every game, he’s had more forgettable performances than serviceable starts.
Here’s a few quarterbacks who were essentially free in drafts who have outscored Burrow on a per-game basis: Sam Howell, Jordan Love, Joshua Dobbs, Desmond Ridder and Kenny Pickett. It’s been bad.
The good news? Burrow’s last two games were two of his best and he just had a bye week to rest up. But there’s more bad news: The Bengals are up against the toughest remaining fantasy schedule for quarterbacks. Things might get better for Burrow, but he’ll be hard-pressed to deliver on that draft capital at this point.
Najee Harris, RB, Steelers
ADP: RB9
Rank: RB36
Harris has never been a particularly efficient player, but volume allowed him to be a top-14 fantasy back the first two years of his career. So far this season he ranks 26th in touches (85) and his involvement as a receiver has plummeted. Harris has just eight catches compared to 22 for Jaylen Warren and his yards per carry is under 4.0 for the third year in a row.
A season ago, Harris logged 20 touches seven times, something he’s yet to do even once this season, and he also tallied 10 touchdowns. He’s only found the end zone once in 2023 and he does not have a single fantasy finish inside the top 12 at his position.
Not only has Warren outscored Harris this season, but other second options like Tyler Allgeier and Jaleel McLaughlin average more points than him as well. Pittsburgh has a relatively favorable schedule for running backs the rest of the way and Harris just had his best fantasy performance of the season, but Warren’s involvement is trending upward, which puts a cap on Harris’ already modest ceiling.
Tee Higgins, WR, Bengals
ADP: WR14
Rank: WR47
Higgins has only played in five games this season because the Bengals already had their bye and he missed Week 4 due to a rib injury. But after back-to-back campaigns as a top-24 receiver, he’s only had one appearance in the top 75 this year and he put up a goose egg in Week 1.
With Burrow’s struggles, the entire Cincinnati offense has been hard-pressed to stay fantasy relevant (though Ja’Marr Chase has had some serious spike weeks). Higgins has had the worst of it. He’s averaging under 30 receiving yards per game and his 149 yards on the season are tied for the 121st-most in the NFL. Both of Higgins’s touchdowns came in Week 2, when he was the WR4 and had 89 yards on eight catches — all season-highs.
The good news is the Bengals have a favorable schedule for receivers the rest of the way. The bye should do this entire team some good after a strange start to the season and allow Higgins and Burrow to get back on the same page — Higgins’ 39% catch rate (14 receptions on 36 targets) would be a career-low by a wide margin.
Calvin Ridley, WR, Jaguars
ADP: WR16
Rank: WR37
Ridley looked like a screaming value after his Jaguars debut, when he led the team in targets, went over 100 yards and snagged a touchdown in his first game action in almost two years. Since then, it’s been a rocky ride for Ridley, who has four finishes outside the top 50 and just two inside the top 36 in the last six weeks.
Things hit a low point in a Week 7 win against the Saints when he caught one pass for five yards. Christian Kirk, who was an afterthought in Week 1, has been Trevor Lawrence’s favorite target. From Week 2 on, Kirk — who was drafted several rounds after his teammate — is the WR11 and Ridley is the WR52 without his spike week in the opener.
The draft capital managers spent to acquire Ridley makes him a tough player to sit, but this has been a rollercoaster week to week with more valleys than peaks. Jacksonville’s bye is coming up in Week 9 and it’s a relatively difficult schedule the rest of the way for its receivers. Ridley has shown his extremes at either end of the spectrum and that’s likely to continue the rest of the way, especially once Zay Jones returns.
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Dolphins
ADP: WR11
Rank: WR34
Evidently, it’s been a rough start for second options. Chase, Kirk and Tyreek Hill are all performing well while Higgins, Ridley and Waddle have been letdowns in one way or another. Waddle has certainly been more consistent than the aforementioned players with 10-plus points in all but one game, but his production is especially disappointing when you consider just how good the Dolphins’ offense has been.
Tua Tagovailoa is a top-five fantasy quarterback, Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane are both top-six running backs and no receiver has scored more than Hill. However, Waddle, who finished as the WR8 a year ago, only has one top-13 finish to his name in six games. Again, he has a high enough floor to the point where he hasn’t lost managers weeks — but he’s not winning any matchups either as he has zero games with 20-plus points.
It’s still too early to hit the panic button on Waddle, but the fact of the matter is he was a late second-round pick selected to be a low-end WR1 or high-end WR2 who’s yet to perform up to that level this year.
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