Injuries are always part of the game – ask anyone who used a first-round pick on Nick Chubb – but there are times when your best players won’t be available to you by design.
Starting in Week 5, the NFL will do its annual attrition of available teams with bye weeks. While most savvy fantasy managers make sure they don’t box themselves in on draft day with too many players on bye at the same time, once roster moves start taking place, all that draft prep goes out the window.
Between Week 5 and Week 14, eight weeks will have byes, including four with four teams sitting and two weeks with six teams down. The best advice for your new-look roster is to plan ahead for the weeks that you’re going to be potentially crippled at a position and look in advance for a player who may be available to pick up and stash for a week or two to keep yourself from making a desperation waiver wire pick when everyone else panics. Sometimes forward thinking before the rest can pay dividends.
Fantasy football risers
Miami Dolphins RBs Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane – While this may be considered somewhat of an overreaction to a 70-point home opener, Mostert was viewed heading into this season as a low-RB2 or flex option, at best. He has scored seven touchdowns in three games and as long as he stays healthy in this offense, he’s money. Achane blew up as the No. 2 option once Miami had a big lead but rushed 18 times for 203 yards, caught four passes for 30 yards and scored four touchdowns. In an ideal world the same person who has Mostert gets Achane, but both will be rostered one way or another – with Mostert starting and Achane being hard to bench.
Houston Texans WR Tank Dell – Every team has players who account for their yardage – even on bad teams. Terry McLaurin became a fantasy starter in a God-awful offense, for example. The conventional wisdom is that the Texans are going to be behind in a lot of games and forced to pass. Nico Collins has been the guy everyone fell in love with, but, in the last two games, Dell has more targets (17), catches (12), yards (217) and touchdowns (2) than Collins (12-9-180-1). Nobody is going to be jumping on Texans for fantasy lineups, but Dell is making his case for consideration.
Detroit Lions TE Sam LaPorta – The Lions didn’t wait long to replace T.J. Hockenson as their playmaking tight end. In his first two games in a “Kelce-and-everyone-else” tight end fantasy world, you look for consistency, and LaPorta has delivered. In those games, he was targeted 11 times, catching 10 passes for 102 yards. Not great numbers, but a solid starting baseline. On Sunday, he was targeted 11 times, catching eight passes for 84 yards and a TD. If he’s still available in your league, he won’t be for long, because he’s a TE1.
Carolina Panthers WR Adam Thielen – Aging receivers moving to new teams is nothing new in the NFL. They still have something to give but were being overpaid by their previous team. Thielen has made a career of being a precise route runner with great hands if his QB gives him a chance to catch a pass. In his last two games – with both Bryce Young and Andy Dalton – Thielen has blown up. He has been targeted 23 times, catching 18 passes for 199 yards and two touchdowns. His value is in PPR leagues, but he is a WR1 in Carolina and available on the waiver wire in a lot of leagues.
Los Angeles Chargers TE Donald Parham – Every year there is a tight end who doesn’t catch a lot of passes but is deadly near the goal line. Parham may be 2023’s version of that. He has caught only six passes, but three of them have gone for touchdowns. In TE-mandatory leagues, he has your attention. He will never be an elite tight end but perhaps a one-week dice roll off the waiver wire.
Fantasy football fallers
Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen – Allen stunk out loud in Week 1 against the New York Jets, but given the investment made in him as a franchise fantasy QB, you’re never benching him. What has made Buffalo’s success the last couple of weeks something to ponder is that it hasn’t been Allen-dependent. Through three games, Allen has thrown for 728 yards and five touchdowns and rushed for just 89 yards and one TD. An average game has been 243 passing yards, 30 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Those aren’t awful numbers, but not what those who invested in him signed up for.
Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry – Those who drafted Henry knew that they were getting a one-dimensional player who doesn’t bring much as a receiver (five catches for 71 yards and no touchdowns in three games). But, what’s troubling is that he has just 163 yards and one touchdown on 51 carries, and his average per carry has dropped sharply with each passing game (4.2-3.2-1.8). Don’t give up on him yet, but 17 carries for 54 yards a game and just one TD in three games ain’t cuttin’ it.
Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott – Prescott has never been a rushing threat, so he has depended on posting big numbers in the passing game. With the weapons around him, the Cowboys’ success in their first two games was based on defense, not Prescott. Averaging 15 rushing yards and no TDs isn’t unusual for Prescott, but averaging 216 passing yards and one TD a game gets old in a hurry. Unlike Allen, most people who drafted Prescott have a solid No. 2 option. It may be time to consider the alternative.
Green Bay Packers RB AJ Dillon – Dillon has been a solid complement to Aaron Jones and the feeling has always been that, if given the chance to be the lead dog, he could do some damage. Jones was hurt in Week 1 and Dillon became “the guy” the last two games. The results? Twenty-six carries for just 88 yards, one reception for eight yards, and no touchdowns. Perhaps Dillon’s worth is as a valuable backup singer, not the front man.
Jacksonville Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley – Ridley’s return to the NFL in Week 1 was outstanding (8-101-1) and the Jaguars rolled to victory. In the last two games, Jacksonville has been playing from behind, and Trevor Lawrence and Ridley haven’t been on the same page. He’s been targeted 15 times but has caught just five passes for 72 yards and no touchdowns. When playing from behind, Lawrence has targeted his vested teammates more – Christian Kirk (20-15-164-1) and Evan Engram (16-13-124-0). Do you only play Ridley when you expect the Jags to roll? Doubts are sinking in.
