With most fantasy leagues done for the season, thoughts are already turning to 2024 for half the NFL. Even though several games on the Week 18 schedule are “meaningless” to fans, coaches and players are looking at who will and won’t be part of their future moving forward.
With so many teams having questions at quarterback, this may be the most impactful offseason in years. That begins this week as organizations start making the critical decisions from head coaches on down as to the direction their teams with be taking.
Fantasy football risers
Unsung fantasy tight ends – In looking at the list of players on the rise, a trio of tight ends stood out – Arizona’s Trey McBride, New Orleans’ Juwan Johnson and Baltimore’s Isaiah Likely. McBride started the season as the No. 2 tight end behind Zach Ertz. In the seven games before the Cardinals released Ertz, McBride had just 15 catches for 170 yards and no touchdowns. In the nine games post-Ertz, McBride has caught 63 passes for 821 yards and two TDs – cementing his spot in Arizona’s lineup. Johnson was a healthy scratch in October, but in his last three games, he has caught 14 passes for 176 yards and three touchdowns, reasserting his role in the Saints offense. Likely was buried behind Mark Andrews in the Ravens offense until Andrews went down with an ankle injury. In his last four games, he has caught 15 passes for 251 yards and four touchdowns. None of these guys were widely expected to be fantasy factors when the season started but were critical during the fantasy playoffs.
Kansas City Chiefs WR Rashee Rice – The Chiefs have struggled for two years to replace Tyreek Hill in their receiver corps, and Rice has been the closest thing we’ve seen for a viable replacement. In his last six games, he has caught 43 passes for 518 yards and three touchdowns – posting weekly numbers of 24.7, 14.8, 20.2, 24.1, 11.7 and 17.7. Few receivers have displayed that sort of solid consistency, much less a rookie. After getting a full offseason to work with the coaches and Patrick Mahomes, he could be pushing the top 10-15 spots among receivers in next season’s draft.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield – It looked as though Mayfield’s days as an NFL starter were done when the Browns traded for Deshaun Watson in 2022. He was traded to the Carolina Panthers, who released him in December. He was claimed by the Los Angeles Rams and finished out the season, signing a one-year deal with the Bucs to begin the post-Tom Brady era in Tampa will no guarantee of starting. He became stronger as the season has gone on, throwing 28 touchdowns, rushing for another, and throwing for almost 4,000 yards. He saved his most productive play for the last four games, throwing for 1,116 yards and 11 touchdowns (10 passing, 1 rushing). Nobody was knocking down his door last offseason. That will change this time around.
Los Angeles Rams RB Kyren Williams – When the Rams started the season, Cam Akers was handed the started the job but was promptly benched and traded. Williams, who had just 39 rushes as a rookie in 2022, was thrust into the spotlight. In the 12 games he has played, Williams has averaged 19 carries for 95 yards, almost three receptions for 17 yards, and has scored 15 touchdowns. After missing four games at midseason, in the six games since his return, he has averaged 22 carries for 115 yards, caught 19 passes for 101 yards and scored eight touchdowns. At this point, Williams is lining himself up to be a RB1 in every fantasy league next season.
Miami Dolphins RB De’Von Achane – What he has been able to accomplish in just 10 games is amazing, averaging 8.0 yards a carry (93 rushes for 744 yards), catching 26 passes for 192 yards, and scoring nine touchdowns. All that has held him back have been injuries and teammate Raheem Mostert scoring 21 touchdowns. But, last week was Achane’s first chance to be the lead back with Mostert sidelined. He responded with 14 carries for 107 yards, four receptions for 30 yards, and a touchdown. You get the feeling in this offense he just scratched the surface and, if given the opportunity to be the primary back, can be an elite fantasy back.
Fantasy football fallers
Buffalo Bills WR Stefon Diggs – A look at his year-long stats suggests a typical Diggs season – 100 catches for 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns — but his numbers don’t tell the entire story. He has been taken away from Buffalo’s offense. In his last seven games, Diggs has caught 30 passes for 262 yards and one touchdown, putting up weekly point totals of 6.4, 6.7, 19.4, 6.4, 8.8, 7.9 and 7.1. For a player of Diggs’ talent, whoever had him on their rosters couldn’t bench him, but they had to live with the results, which were regularly brutal for a WR1.
Los Angeles Chargers RB Austin Ekeler – What made Ekeler the consensus No. 2 overall pick was his dual-threat ability as a runner and receiver and his massive TD numbers week after week. However, in 12 games since he returned from an early-season injury, his numbers have been pedestrian – 156 carries for 500 yards, 40 receptions for 351 yards, and five touchdowns. On average, those numbers come out to a weekly average of 12.9 points. That isn’t a horrible average, but when you were drafted to be on par with Christian McCaffrey on a weekly basis, his production drop was felt on a weekly basis. Complicating matters was that his numbers were worse in the fantasy playoffs. Over the last three weeks, Ekeler’s point totals were 7.8, 11.6 and 6.0. If you had Ekeler on your roster, you likely didn’t win a league championship. If you did, it wasn’t because of Ekeler … it was despite him.
Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa – Tua started the season on fire, throwing 18 touchdown passes in his first eight games and averaging 302 passing yards. He gives you nothing as a rusher (67 yards and no TDs in 16 games), so he is required to post big passing numbers. In his last eight games, he averaged 254 passing yards and had just 10 touchdown passes. At a time when half the league was playing backups, Tagovailoa’s numbers were okay in comparison, but throwing just four touchdown passes in his last four games (with fantasy seasons on the line) wasn’t nearly the return that was expected given his red-hot start.
Denver Broncos QB Russell Wilson – Many scoffed when the Broncos gave up a king’s ransom to get Wilson in trade from Seattle and doubled down by given him a huge contract with tons of guaranteed money. After a brutal 2022 season, the heat was turned up considerably. He accounted for just 19 touchdowns (16 passing, 3 rushing) in 15 games in 2022 and the Broncos offense was stagnant. Wilson came back to be much more productive in terms of scoring with 29 touchdowns (26 passing, 3 rushing) in 15 games this season, but his contract was in the way. When he refused to restructure his deal, he was benched, and the Broncos will look to get out from under his deal in the offseason. Wilson will likely be a starter somewhere next year, but it looks like it won’t be in Denver, because Sean Payton doesn’t want a game manager.
New York Jets RB Dalvin Cook – (update: Cook was released after this article was published. He’s subject to waivers and can be claimed for the remainder of the season.) When Minnesota released Cook in the offseason, it seemed a forgone conclusion that he was heading to Miami, where a big role in the offense was seemingly waiting for him. Cook’s contract demand was too steep and Miami moved on – and didn’t look back. Going to Jets, big things were planned with Aaron Rodgers coming to town with him, but that imploded in the first quarter of the first game. In 16 games, he rushed just 67 times for 214 yards, caught 15 passes for 78 yards and didn’t score a TD. Worse yet, in the three weeks of the fantasy playoffs, he rushed one time for six yards, caught one pass for four yards and didn’t touch the ball in last week’s loss to Cleveland. A series of bad decisions killed his 2023 season and clouds his future moving forward.
