Holdouts have been a part of the NFL for as long as can remember. We can look back to the 1970s, when guys like Duane Thomas and John Hannah were in infamous holdouts. Several NFL superstars like Eric Dickerson, Emmitt Smith, Bo Jackson, Darrelle Revis and many more have gone the way of the holdout, looking for a new and bigger contract. More recently, Josh Jacobs held out of training camp for the Las Vegas Raiders last season.
This year is no different, as three high-end wide receivers, CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase and Brandon Aiyu, are all making a statement by either holding out or “holding in.” Both Lamb and Chase are first-rounders in fantasy drafts, and Aiyuk could go as high as Round 3. But with their current situations, should managers be afraid to draft any of this trio?
Personally, I wouldn’t be concerned.
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Why? Well, it’s very rare for a holdout to last into the regular season. The most notable was Smith, who held out for the first two games in 1993. Both of those games were losses for a Cowboys team with Super Bowl aspirations, so owner Jerry Jones broke and gave Smith a new deal. Consequently, Dallas won its next seven games and won the Super Bowl.
The bigger concern for managers is that a holdout could result in an injury or a decrease in statistical production. We saw that with Jacobs, who went from winning a rushing title to missing four games and rushing for a mere 805 yards in 2023. Fellow backs such as Jamal Anderson (1999), Larry Johnson (2007) and Steven Jackson (2008) suffered similar fate. But others, like Smith, Marshall Faulk (1999) and Corey Dillon (2000), had great seasons after a holdout. One thing all these players have in common is position ... they’re all runners.
Lamb, Chase and Aiyuk play a far less physically punishing position, so I think they’re less likely to fall prey to an injury. None of these players have been overly “injury prone” either.
Based on the average draft position (ADP) data over at the NFFC, the high-stakes folks are worried about Lamb or Chase. Lamb remains the top wideout selected with an ADP of 2.8, while Chace is coming in at 6.9. Aiyuk has fallen a bit, maybe because his holdout has been more prominent in the news. He also seemed likely to be traded at one point, with rumors about his going to the New England Patriots or Pittsburgh Steelers, but he’s still the WR22 with an ADP of 34.6.
Personally, I’m not moving any of these three wideouts in my rankings. Lamb remains the WR1, Chase the WR5 and Aiyuk the WR16. But for those managers who are more risk adverse, I can see taking Tyreek Hill over Lamb or Amon-Ra St. Brown over Chase. If a Michael Pittman Jr. or DK Metcalf is on the board, I can see passing on Aiyuk too.
But at the end of the day, I’d be shocked if any of this trio missing regular-season games.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Fantasy Football Managers Shouldn't Worry About Ja'Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Brandon Aiyuk Holdouts.
