Man, where has the time gone? It’s hard to believe that 11 weeks of the NFL regular season are in the rearview mirror, and we’re barreling toward the fantasy football playoffs.
We continue to see changes each week, as a guy is useful one week, and then the next week he is gone as quickly as he emerged. We’re also witnessing some veterans dying a slow career death, and it’s rather sad.
Heading into Week 12, we have six teams on a bye, too, making this perhaps the most important and competitive waiver-wire week. The Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints and New York Jets will be off. Let’s review some key utilization statistics from the previous weekend to examine the fantasy landscape and consider how the developments of Week 11 might shape the future.
Washington Commanders TE Zach Ertz
Some things old are new again. Washington Commanders TE Zach Ertz posted six receptions for 47 yards and a touchdown on seven targets in Week 11 on Thursday against the Philadelphia Eagles, his former team.
For many years, Ertz was the gold standard among fantasy tight ends. He had 702 or more receiving yards from 2014-19 while going for 74 or more reception in five consecutive seasons in Philadelphia from 2015-19. He shared the load in 2020 into 2021 with Dallas Goedert, and he was traded to the Arizona Cardinals in Oct. 2021.
After some marginal seasons in the desert, where it appeared his career was winding down, Ertz is back. He has managed 43 receptions for 428 yards and two scores this season, and he has been targeted 61 times. Ertz is on pace for 66 receptions for 661 yards and three scores with 94 targets. The veteran is averaging 10.0 yards per reception, which would be his best production per catch since 2021.
The 34-year-old Ertz has jelled nicely with rookie QB Jayden Daniels this season, and he is showing glimpses of being a low-end TE1 in fantasy leagues of 12 or more teams. The tight end spot can be a wasteland behind the top options, so it doesn’t take much to vault up the rankings. He has four or more grabs in five of the past six games, with five or more targets in six of the past seven outings, too.
Miami Dolphins running backs
Miami Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert carried a questionable tag into Week 11 against the Las Vegas Raiders. While he was active, perhaps he was not close to 100 percent, and that is why he was nearly invisible in the win.
Mostert tied for the league lead with 18 rushing touchdowns last season, and 21 total scores, but this season he has just 212 rushing yards, a career-low 3.7 yards per carry and only two rushing scores with a career-worst two lost fumbles on 58 carries across seven games. The 32-year-old has gone from fantasy gold to pyrite in the matter of 12 months.
A big reason Mostert is nailed to the bench is RB De’Von Achane. He went for 73 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries, while Achane had four catches for 32 yards on four targets. Now that QB Tua Tagovailoa is back under center, giving Miami an NFL-caliber signal caller, defenses have to respect the pass, opening up more room for Achane.
For Mostert, he is a team player, and he wouldn’t cheer for an injury to Achane, but that might be the only way he sees a meaningful role down the stretch. Even then, Jaylen Wright has averaged 5.3 carries per game in the past three outings, appearing to be next in line for totes behind Achane, and not Mostert.
Should you drop Mostert from fantasy rosters? Man, that’s tough, as his 2023 production is still very fresh in everyone’s minds. But, if you need that roster spot, it’s time to make a hard decision. Mostert could help fantasy managers in the playoffs if things go a certain way, but it’s a big if.
Green Bay Packers wide receivers
Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love threw for 261 yards, one touchdown and an interception in Week 11 in Chicago, but the receiver picture was shaken up like an Etch-a-Sketch.
WR Christian Watson, who has had trouble in his career staying on the field due to hamstring issues, exploded for four receptions for a career-high 150 yards, and just the fourth 100-yard game of his career. It was his first time hitting the century mark since Jan. 8, 2023.
WR Jayden Reed, who has been the most consistent receiver from a fantasy perspective, went for two receptions with 23 yards and a touchdown on two targets. If it wasn’t for the score, it would have been a nightmare stat line at this critical juncture.
WR Romeo Doubs was limited to a single 17-yard catch on just two targets, while WR Dontayvion Wicks was blanked with just a single target. Yuck.
Watson can still only be considered a low-end WR3 or flex fantasy option in leagues of 12 or more teams since he is just so erratic. He had only 16 catches for 233 yards on 27 targets in the first eight games. We need to see least one stat line with 70-80 yards and maybe a score before considering him a fantasy regular again.
Reed just had 113 yards in Week 10 against the Detroit Lions, but he also has three games with 28 or fewer yards in three of the past five outings. Like Watson, he has had sporadic production with plenty of bummer stat lines sprinkled in. Reed has WR2 fantasy ability, but he should be treated as more of a WR3 or flex fantasy option, too.
Green Bay Packers TE Tucker Kraft
Just as quickly as Kraft burst onto the scene as a disruptor in fantasy football, he has disappeared.
Kraft had six grabs for 53 yards and a touchdown on a season-high nine targets against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 4, and he carried that momentum into Week 5 on the road against the Los Angeles Rams, going for 88 receiving yards and two scores.
He had touchdowns in consecutive games in Weeks 7 and 8, but it’s been all downhill from there. Kraft suffered a groin injury in the Lions game in Week 9, and he used the bye to presumably get healthy. He returned to the lineup in Week 11 against the Chicago Bears with just one target and no offensive statistics, though.
It’s unclear if he is 100% healthy or not, but after emerging as a TE1 in most fantasy leagues for the better part of a month, Kraft has clearly devolved into a TE2 option. It’s possible he could bounce back as the Green Bay offense is reliant upon the tight end position. However, make sure to have alternate plans.
Baltimore Ravens WR Diontae Johnson
When the Carolina Panthers traded Johnson to the Ravens, fantasy managers were glad to see an upgrade from QBs Bryce Young/Andy Dalton to QB Lamar Jackson. However, it has not gone well in Charm City for Johnson.
In Week 11 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Johnson’s original team, he went without a reception on just two targets. In three games since landing in Baltimore, he has one catch for six yards on four targets.
Instead of being the alpha dog in the offense like he was in Charlotte, he is learning a new playbook and system. While playing behind the likes of WRs Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman, it appears Johnson is fighting for crumbs with journeyman WR Nelson Agholor. Don’t forget, RB Justice Hill, TE Mark Andrews and TE Isaiah Likely also are mouths to feed in the pass game.
Johnson cannot be used as a starter in any fantasy format right now, even in deeper leagues. He just hasn’t fit in, and he doesn’t have the eye of Jackson, at least not yet.
