You could make a decent case that the Detroit Lions’ offensive success was one of last season’s most surprising stories as they jumped from 22nd in 2021 to fourth, averaging 380 yards per game. While their gains on the ground were more modest, going from 19th (110.9 YPG) to 11th (128.2), their 23 rushing touchdowns trailed only the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys.
Despite that success, the Lions completely overhauled the position. RB Jamaal Williams, who led the NFL with 17 rushing touchdowns (and finished second to Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler in total scores), wasn’t re-signed and eventually landed with the New Orleans Saints. The team also moved on from talented but oft-injured running back D’Andre Swift, trading him to Philadelphia during the draft.
In their stead, Detroit signed former Chicago Bears RB David Montgomery to a three-year deal, and then raised eyebrows across the league by using the 12th overall pick on running back Jahmyr Gibbs. On paper, the new duo looks like an upgrade over Williams and Swift, particularly given the latter’s issues staying healthy, but how will they deliver for fantasy owners? Let’s look.
David Montgomery
During four seasons with the Bears, Montgomery established himself as a reliable workhorse, averaging 229 carries, 39 receptions, 1,212 combined yards, and 7.5 touchdowns. Although he only once went an entire season without missing a game, he played in 60 of 66 possible games, so he shouldn’t be viewed as any kind of durability risk. Where Montgomery has fallen short is in explosive plays, logging just 15 carries of 20-plus yards on 915 attempts and owning a career 3.9 yards per carry.
The question is how much of that is owed to Chicago’s sub-par offense versus any shortcomings that Montgomery might have as a playmaker. Playing behind a better line, in a controlled environment, and with a competent passing game should all elevate Montgomery. Of course, the team will want to get Gibbs involved early and often, but the veteran’s 5-foot-11, 224-pound frame appears better suited to the rigors of the NFL game, so don’t be surprised if he sees more touches than the rookie.
Jahmyr Gibbs
Given the current leaguewide view of the running back position as a whole, the Lions’ decision to select Gibbs was legitimately shocking — yes, there was an expectation that RB Bijan Robinson would go early, but he was considered the best RB prospect in years and viewed as an anomaly. Detroit even doubled down on their decision, suggesting they would’ve taken Gibbs at No. 6 had they not traded back. While that seems suspect, it’s clear they feel they’ve identified something special in the Alabama alum.
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In terms of talent, Gibbs has breakaway speed and elusiveness close to the line of scrimmage, which is an intriguing combination. He’s also an adept receiver out of the backfield, and general manager Brad Holmes has indicated they view the rookie as more of an offensive weapon than simply a running back. At just 199 pounds, however, there are questions about how heavy of a load he can shoulder. That’s why, if you’re using 2022 as a blueprint, it makes sense to view Gibbs as what Detroit wanted Swift to be while Montgomery fills the bulldozer role that Williams found success in.
Craig Reynolds
Reynolds did decent work before a rib injury wrote an end to his season in Week 9. Justin Jackson then stepped into that tertiary role, logging 54 touches, but he won’t return, leaving Reynolds, rookie Mohamed Ibrahim, and Jermar Jefferson to battle it out for the No. 3 gig. Jefferson, a seventh-round pick in 2021, had a couple moments as a rookie but spent all last year on the practice squad. Whoever wins the job would only be of interest in the event of injury.
Fantasy football outlook
This is definitely a fluid situation, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the split evolve over the course of the full season, probably with Gibbs’ role growing as he acclimates to the pro game. Heading into 2023, however, you can pencil Montgomery in as a solid RB3 — he’s also someone you might look to trade if he exceeds expectations early on.
Gibbs, meanwhile, could be drafted as a low-end RB2 due to his acumen as a receiver and upside based on Detroit’s excitement in bringing him on board.
