Winning in fantasy football isn’t easy, but drafting well is a nice way to get on the right path. Part of finding value is knowing which players you can get later and which ones you should jump up to grab before others do. But whether it’s due to people going chalk at the top of the draft or taking big names they’re familiar with at the back, there are often players who get overlooked by almost everyone.
So who are those players this year? I took a look at average draft positions over at Fantasy Pros and put together a list of players I think will outperform their current draft spots. If you haven’t drafted yet, keep an eye out for these guys.
You can find our list of players being drafted too high here.
1
Derrick Henry, RB
ADP: 4.3
It would be a mistake to think of Henry’s RB1 season of 2020 as an aberration. In fact, he was well on his way to exceeding that performance last season before an injury sidelined him half the year — his 21.9 fantasy points per game led all position players. He had 10 touchdowns through eight games.
Henry returned from that injury late last season, though, so he should go into this year with the same expectations he entered last year with. Instead, an average of three running backs are being drafted ahead of him, and that’s insane. Especially considering one of those backs — Christian McCaffrey — has a more concerning injury history. In ESPN leagues, Henry’s ADP is 6th. He should be considered a top-two player.
2
Mike Evans, WR
ADP: 27.3
I had Mike Evans listed fifth in my ranking of fantasy wide receivers, so imagine my surprise to see he’s been drafted on average as the 10th receiver — and in the third round. Even with a missed game last season and barely cracking 1,000 yards, he was the WR6 thanks to 14 touchdown receptions, second-best at his position.
With Rob Gronkowski retired, Chris Godwin recovering from a torn ACL and Antonio Brown out the picture, I expect Tom Brady to lean on Evans more than ever in 2022. At the very least, his fantasy floor is higher than most as a big red zone threat.
3
Damien Harris, RB
ADP: 71.3
I get the hesitation with Harris. Really, I do. I’ve been hesitant to attach my fantasy teams to Patriots running backs for as long as I’ve been playing. But when you’re getting down to the sixth round and the RB8 from the previous season is still sitting there, well that’s simply a steal.
Harris will still have to split carries with Rhamondre Stevenson, but if last year taught us anything about this backfield, it’s that Harris is the closest thing they have to a No. 1 and he’ll receive the bulk of goal-line carries. That’s how he finished second among backs in rushing touchdowns with 15.
4
Miles Sanders, RB
ADP: 75.7
There are two things that may be of concern for fantasy players when it comes to Sanders. The first is the apparent hamstring injury he’s been nursing for about two weeks. If that lingers into the season, his place on this list is irrelevant. The second is Jalen Hurts’ tendency to keep the ball for himself in read options near the end zone.
I’ll just say this. If Sanders is healthy, I think the presence of Hurts boosts his fantasy value rather than hurts it. While he didn’t score last season, he did average 5.5 yards per carry. That’s not an accident. As teams adjust to what Hurts has put on film, Sanders should get more of those opportunities to punch in the ball himself.
5
Rashod Bateman, WR
ADP: 84.0
Bateman isn’t your typical No. 1 receiver, playing on a run-first team that targets the tight end first in the passing game. And the emergence of a second tight end, rookie Isaiah Likely, as a playmaker also doesn’t help Bateman’s case. But someone has to replace the production of Marquise Brown, who eclipsed 1,000 yards last season and caught at least six touchdowns in each of his three years in Baltimore.
Rather than a committee, I find it more likely that the team’s first-round pick of a year ago fills that role. And he might do it even better — Bateman has received positive reviews from camp. If he’s your fantasy team’s third WR option, you’re in a great spot. He could potentially hold his own as the No. 2.
6
Dameon Pierce, RB
ADP: 113.3
A fourth-round pick of this past draft, Pierce seems to be emerging as the top running back in Houston. The Texans held him out of their most recent preseason game, speculated by some as a sign they’ve seen enough to give him the lead role ahead of Marlon Mack and others.
I don’t expect the Texans to go from worst rushing offense in the league to something close to good. But it does help to finally have one guy they can rely on. And as that guy, Pierce should receive more consideration as a top-30 fantasy back.
7
Jameis Winston, QB
ADP: 169.0
I was close to adding Trey Lance to this list because he’s currently being drafted in the ninth round, and I think he has breakout potential. But there’s a clear line of who the top 12 fantasy quarterbacks are, and as the QB13, Lance is often the first backup being selected. I can’t justify drafting a backup higher.
However, among those backup options, no quarterback is being slept on more than Winston, who should be closer to QB17 than QB23. Even in an ultra-conservative offense with limited playmakers, he averaged more fantasy points than all but 12 quarterbacks last season. This year, he’ll have so many more weapons to work with, which should help open up the playbook a little more. He’s not someone you should draft to start every game, but he can definitely fill in for injuries and bye weeks.
