Though summer break is upon us, fantasy football managers know the quest for a championship never rests.
Getting value and hitting on some draft picks that break out relative to average draft position (ADP) is what it’s all about. Those selections truly make a difference, and focusing on rookies can be an easy way to get there.
We won’t be looking at the bigger names in this rookie class like Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers or Jonathon Brooks. But there are still plenty of rookies who have the chance to become staples in fantasy lineups.
Here’s a look at three rookie breakout candidates to keep an eye on going into the 2024 season:
WR Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have an incredible amount of vacated targets to fill in 2024. Keenan Allen was traded to the Chicago Bears while Mike Williams (post release), Gerald Everett and Austin Ekeler all found new homes in free agency.
That quartet departed with 320 combined targets from the 2023 season. Looking at it from a per-game basis considering Williams played only three games, that group is vacating roughly 30.2 targets per game.
Of course, vacated targets are not a perfectly translatable stat. McConkey isn’t going to get 30.2 targets per game despite the wishes of my dynasty team. But it does signal that there is a hole the size of TON-618 in the target competition. McConkey is the perfect fit to gobble up a large portion of those targets.
The arrival of new head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman almost certainly means the Chargers will lean heavily into the run. They still need to throw the ball though, and Justin Herbert is one of the most dynamic passers in the game. He and McConkey are already building a strong rapport.
It wouldn’t be a shock if the Georgia product commanded a 20% target share of the offense right away, and he’s being drafted as a WR4 option.
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RB Jaylen Wright, Miami Dolphins
Coming out of the 2024 NFL Draft, it was clear this rookie class doesn’t boast a ton of high-end talent at the running back position. With that said, there are some intriguing options who could exceed expectations during their rookie seasons. Wright is certainly one of them.
Despite a crowded running back depth chart that is led by the uber-explosive De’Von Achane and the NFL’s reigning rushing touchdown leader in Raheem Mostert, there is still a path of relevancy for Wright. It may not be right away, but it’s there.
Though we shouldn’t draft solely based on last year’s results, we have a pretty strong idea that the Dolphins will use a committee. Achane, as explosive as he is, does not require a bell-cow role. His 10-to-15 touches per game are more than enough.
Mostert is an oft-injured, 32-year-old running back who is coming off a career-high 234 touches. In fact, his 446 touches over the last two seasons in Miami are more than his previous six seasons combined in San Francisco (320). He deserves his flowers for his 18 rushing touchdowns, but banking on a third consecutive healthy season is playing with fire.
The 21-year-old Wright, who ran a 4.38 in the 40-yard dash at 210 pounds, would be the replacement for Mostert if the latter went down. According to Next Gen Stats, Achane (11.7%) and Mostert (14.4%) faced the sixth and 13th-lowest percentages of stacked boxes.
Wright is used to running in a spread offense from Tennessee, and if he gets his opportunities, he’s going to obliterate his RB50 price tag.
RB Ray Davis, Buffalo Bills
Though Davis is a Day 3 pick who will play his rookie season as a 25-year-old, there is a strong chance he will see an immediate role in Buffalo’s rotation alongside James Cook during his first season.
It may not be the most exciting role, especially since Josh Allen is going to continue gobbling up rush attempts and goal-line carries. But there is still a lot of potential for Davis to provide upside as a flex option in tandem with Cook.
Even though Latavius Murray saw only 74 rushing attempts throughout the 2023 season, 11 of those came at the goal line. That ranked 14th among all NFL players. Meanwhile, Cook saw just four such attempts.
Davis is an older prospect who played on three teams throughout his collegiate career, performing well as he continued to ascend in competition from Temple to Vanderbilt and finally to Kentucky, where he posted 1,452 total yards and 21 total touchdowns.
With an ADP in the 50s among running backs, Davis is a safe bet to breakout at the price tag.
