Daily fantasy football, niche playoff challenges, and prop bets are all we have left for fantasy football-related action in the early going of the new calendar year.
That won’t stop us from revisiting the 2023 season-long utilization data to see what might help us in identifying studs and duds for not only the next month-plus of remaining gaming but also as an extremely early preview of 2024 possibilities. Look for even more expansive coverage surrounding utilization data in the coming months.
Week 18 highlights
RB Breece Hall, New York Jets: His 37 rushing attempts and pair of targets only further proves his surgically reconstructed knee is 100% healthy after a late-season surge in utilization. He’ll be a top-five RB in 2024 drafts.
RB Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders: White has quietly showcased workhorse traits to the incoming coaching staff as Josh Jacobs faces free agency. It won’t come as a surprise if the Raiders retain interim head coach Antonio Pierce and make him the full-time head man, so White could become a borderline RB1 for 2024 if the chips fall his way.
Ending on a high note: Impending free agents Derrick Henry, Tony Pollard, Devin Singletary and Saquon Barkley may have played the last regular-season games in their respective jerseys, but at least they positioned themselves well if that’s how it works out. It takes more than quality Week 18 performance to make a difference, especially in Pollard’s case, but gamers tend to gravitate toward who finished well when looking for added draft incentive.
Justin Jefferson reminded everyone what he can do when fully healthy (12-192-1 on 14 targets), CeeDee Lamb capped off an epic season with a 35.5-pointer on 14 utilizations, and Calvin Ridley generated a 6-106-1 line on 10 looks. Few receivers arguably did more for their 2024 fantasy draft stock than Nico Collins with his impressive 9-195-1 showing, which came little more than a month after posting a nearly identical line vs Denver.
Overall, Week 18 wasn’t that impressive for receivers from a target perspective. Still, we saw a moderate 38 wideouts get into double figures in PPR — many of whom were replacement players due to teams resting key starters.
Familiar faces led tight ends in targets last week, and only the league’s most targeted tight end (Evan Engram) even made it into double figures. Rookie Dalton Kincaid made finished second with eight looks, going for the second-most PPR points (15.4) on the week. He certainly will be drafted among the top players at the position next season. Arizona’s Trey McBride did enough (3-34-1) on six looks to keep his name fresh in the minds of gamers, too, when it comes to rising stars at the position.
Overworked?
While no running back crossed the dreaded 400-touch plateau, people should be concerned about San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey going for a league-high 339 touches in 16 games. He will tack on more action with a potential for three playoff appearances. Entering his age-28 season, CMC will come with elevated injury risk in 2024 drafts.
A massive workload for Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon came with underwhelming returns, and he, too, will be 28 next year. Consecutive seasons of dwindling fantasy points per game should have gamers devaluing him in ’24 drafts.
The aforementioned Henry went for 308 touches and a league-high 280 attempts, which proved to be his lowest full-season workload since 2018. Henry enters free agency as a freshly minted 30-year-old as of Jan. 4, and even with these unflattering circumstances, he won’t struggle to find a suitor. The positive is Henry is simply built to handle the abuse.
We saw huge all-around workloads — at least by the standards of today’s pass-happy league — from Jacksonville Jaguars RB Travis Etienne and Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White. No one should be overly concerned about their workloads with age and previously low mileage working in their favor. The same should apply to the Pittsburgh Steelers‘ Najee Harris, Los Angeles Rams‘ Kyren Williams, Pollard, Hall, James Cook and Bijan Robinson — all of whom were granted at least 260 handles.
Efficiency and target share
Huge touch totals aren’t the be all, end all for predicting fantasy success, of course. Efficiency is extremely important and can overcome a marginal workload.
Case in point: Miami Dolphins running back De’Von Achane. No back was more effective per opportunity among those with at least 100 combined touches. The rookie went for an average of 1.48 PPR points each time he put his mitts on the ball.
Notables on the high end: Samaje Perine (1.22 points), Antonio Gibson (1.16), Jahmyr Gibbs (1.04), Tyjae Spears (1.01), Justice Hill (0.99), Jaleel McLaughlin (0.99).
Dead last on the list: Houston’s Dameon Pierce. He generated a mere 0.49 PPR points, on average.
Other plodders: Miles Sanders (0.59), AJ Dillon (0.59), Zamir White (0.64), Alexander Mattison (0.65), Chuba Hubbard (0.66), Singletary (0.66), Javonte Williams (0.67).
Nothing too earth-shattering there … the among the top-10 producers for PPR scoring, Henry was the least efficient (0.77), and seven of the nine other backs were good for at least 0.93 points per touch. Of the RB1 finishers, eight also ranked top-12 in efficiency.
Running back target share per team: Denver led the way with 32.1% of all the team throws going to the position. Next was the New York Jets (26.5%), then Atlanta (24.5%), New England (24.2%), San Francisco (23.8%), and Pittsburgh (23.6%). As you can see, we’re looking at a mixed bag of teams that threw to running backs purely out of necessity due to not having the talent a receiver. Quarterback inexperience, system, and inferior run blocking all play a huge roles here, too, so there’s not a wealth of applicable intel to gain when looking ahead.
Least targeted RB teams: Los Angeles Rams (12.4%), Houston (12.6%), Minnesota (14.9%), Jacksonville (15%), and Cincinnati (15.1%) fill out the bottom five.
Wide receivers
Since a hefty workload really isn’t nearly the same issue for wide receivers in relation to running back utilization, we’ll focus more on efficiency and outliers here.
CeeDee Lamb, of the Dallas Cowboys, led all receivers in targets (181), receptions (135), and PPR points (405.2). He would have finished RB1 by nearly 10 points, though McCaffrey was more proficient on a per-game basis. In terms of efficiency for receivers alone, Lamb was WR20 among those in the top 50 for targets. Los Angeles Chargers WR Keenan Allen and Miami’s Tyreek Hill actually averaged more looks per game than Lamb.
Las Vegas’ Davante Adams was largely a disappointment, but he finished No. 2 in targets (175). His lack of efficiency really set him back with a WR29 finish in that department. Similar receivers with a huge target count but low efficiency ratings: Detroit’s Amon-Ra St. Brown, New York Jets receiver Garrett Wilson, Indianapolis’ Michael Pittman Jr., Los Angeles Rams WR Puka Nacua, Los Angeles’ Allen, Buffalo’s Stefon Diggs, and the Cincinnati Bengals‘ Ja’Marr Chase. In the year of backup quarterbacks, it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that only three of those guys ended the year with the QB who began the season.
That’s an imperfect way of viewing wide receiver efficiency, however. Combined touches don’t apply evenly when you have a handful of receivers rushing the ball 10-plus times and others rarely, if ever, taking a handoff. If we look at efficiency ratings based solely on receptions alone, it looks as you’d expect. San Fran’s Deebo Samuel, who had more than three times as many rushing attempts over the next closest receiver, jumps from No. 36 when combined touches are factored to the most efficient receiver on only receptions. Green Bay rookie Jayden Reed goes from a respectable 16th to fourth. Just about every other comparison is even enough to not matter.
So, without rushing attempts included, focusing on catches alone and not opportunities (also imperfect), Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans finished as the second-most effective receiver per touch in PPR. He produced 3.58 points each time he handled the ball (79 catches and no rushing attempts). Next was DK Metcalf (3.42), followed by Reed (3.36), Brandon Aiyuk (3.35), Courtland Sutton (3.33), George Pickens (3.31), Nico Collins (3.23), Hill (3.18), Brandin Cooks (3.17), Jordan Addison (3.16), and Amari Cooper (3.15) to round out the top-12 most efficient receivers.
The least effective wideout per touch among qualifiers was Carolina rookie Jonathan Mingo (1.97) That’s basically a half-point more than the best running back, which screams volumes about positional scarcity.
When efficiency didn’t correspond among the most targeted receivers: Sutton, fantasy’s sixth-most efficient wideout, caught 10 touchdowns, or one every 5.9 — a ridiculously unsustainable rate — but he finished WR36 in PPR scoring. He was WR34 in points per game for those who qualified. A performer was Pickens, the No. 33 finisher in PPR points per game, despite being the seventh-most efficient player at the position. Romeo Doubs, Brandin Cooks, and Jakobi Meyers all were similar profiles — a commonality being their touchdown dependency.
Among the top-100 scorers in PPR, regardless of games played or touches, the most efficient players were New Orleans Saints‘ A.T. Perry, Denver’s Brandon Johnson, and Kansas City Chiefs WR Justin Watson, Of the names you actually care about and are likely to draft in 2024, Buffalo’s Gabe Davis, Cincy’s Tee Higgins, Green Bay’s Christian Watson, Detroit’s Jameson Williams, Arizona’s Michael Wilson, and Houston’s Tank Dell all recorded strong marks in this area.
Which teams targeted their WRs the most in relation to the rest of their offense? The LA Rams threw 71.7% of the passes to their talented crop of receivers. Next was Tampa Bay (67.8%), followed by Miami (67.8%).
On the other side of that coin, Atlanta (41.2%) threw the lowest share to the position. The second lowest was the New York Jets (51.2%), followed by Arizona (51.3%).
Tight ends
Jacksonville’s Evan Engram by far led the position in targets (143) and receptions (114), finishing No. 2 in fantasy points. From a per-game target ranking, T.J. Hockenson‘s 8.5 looks paved the way over Engram’s 8.4. Kansas City directed 8.1 targets, on average, to Travis Kelce, for a third-place finish. David Njoku ended up fourth with 7.7 targets.
Only five of TEs who finished in the top 12 for fantasy points also had a matching placement in efficiency ranking. Of the 26 tight ends with at least 50 targets, San Francisco’s George Kittle was the most efficient player, producing an average of 3.13 PPR points per touch. The next player was Mark Andrews, but he started only 10 games, so it’s questionable how that would have translated over a full season.
We’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and move to No. 3 being Hunter Henry. His conversion rate of a touchdown every seven receptions propelled him to this high placement, and that’s tough to bank on in fantasy. The top PPR producer, Sam LaPorta, was the fourth-most efficient tight end. Juwan Johnson rounded out the top five. Efficient doesn’t mean consistent, so don’t make that mistake.
From that same grouping of tight ends, Chicago’s Cole Kmet and Buffalo Bills rookie Dalton Kincaid paced the field in reception rate. Each hauled in 80.2% of the passes sent their way. Engram was third (79.7%), Cincinnati’s Tanner Hudson (78%), and Kelce (76.9%) closed out the top five.
When it came to team-based target share, the 34.3% of throws Atlanta directed to the tight end position ranked first. Arizona finished second with 33.1%. Minnesota (29.5%), KC (28.6%), and Cleveland (27.8%) wrap up the top five in this category.
Note: Due to New Orleans Saints QB/TE Taysom Hill rushing 81 times for 401 yards an four scores, which is a total outlier for tight ends, he has been removed from the equation.
