The summer is here, meaning we're getting closer to the start of fantasy football drafts. Success in those drafts will come from landing terrific bargains in the middle to late rounds while avoiding players who could see their numbers decline compared to 2021. That latter exercise isn't easy, especially for players who are among the elite at their position or are coming off breakout seasons in the stat sheets.
Case in point. In 2020, Ryan Tannehill emerged into a fantasy superstar as the starting quarterback in Tennessee. He finished seventh in fantasy points at the position while putting up career highs almost across the board. That success made him a surefire top-12 fantasy field generals in 2021 redrafts. Many fantasy folks trusted that because Tannehill was so good in his breakout campaign, he’d be just as good the following year. Unfortunately, things went a little bit sideways for the veteran signal-caller.
Even though he played in one more game, Tannehill saw declines in passing yards, touchdowns and fantasy points. His 15.8 points-a-game average was a whopping 5.7 points fewer than he averaged the previous season, and he scored 20-plus points twice during the fantasy football season. Clearly, Tannehill failed to meet expectations.
The point here is that fantasy managers trusted Tannehill too much after he broke out. That leads me to this series, aptly named “The Fantasy Case Against…” where I’ll do my due diligence in looking at players who everyone in fantasy land seems to think is a sure bet to remain uber-productive after finding a high level of success in past seasons.
The series highlights big-name players or those coming off enormous statistical years who could see a surprising decline in fantasy success. Like I always say, the only predictable thing about the NFL is that it's often unpredictable. And as much as we love our fantasy heroes out on the gridiron, no one is ever guaranteed to succeed.
Next, let's look at Chiefs quarterback and fantasy stud Patrick Mahomes.
Fantasy Case Against: Cooper Kupp | Davante Adams | Deebo Samuel | Amon-Ra St. Brown | Diontae Johnson | Cordarrelle Patterson | Michael Thomas | James Conner | Javonte Williams | DK Metcalf | Amari Cooper | A.J. Brown | Antonio Gibson
2021 Season
Mahomes ranked fourth in fantasy points among quarterbacks, throwing for 4,839 yards with 37 touchdown passes and 13 interceptions. His 21.3 fantasy points per game were fourth, though it was 3.6 points per game fewer than he scored in 2020. He hit the 20-plus point mark in 11 of his 17 games, including three with 30-plus points.
Did You Know?
Mahomes was tremendous for most of last season, but he also went through one of his worst statistical slumps in the pros. In Weeks 7-9, he was 21st in fantasy points among quarterbacks with an average of just 10.7 points per game. He did bust out of the slump in a Week 10 win over the Las Vegas Raiders when he scored 36.2 points, but he fell right back into it in the next two weeks with a combined 20.1 points. All told, Mahomes threw just seven touchdown passes and was the QB18 during that five-game stretch.
