The summer is here, meaning we’re getting closer to the start of fantasy football drafts. Success in those drafts will come from landing terrific bargains in the middle to late rounds while avoiding players who could see their numbers decline compared to 2021. That latter exercise isn’t easy, however, especially in the case of players who are among the elite at their position or are coming off breakout seasons in the stat sheets.
Case in point. In 2020, Allen Robinson recorded 102 catches on 151 targets for 1,250 yards and six touchdowns. That was all good enough for him to finish ninth in fantasy points among wide receivers, and it was his second straight year in the top 10. As a result, fantasy managers felt good about drafting Robinson as a low-end No. 1 wideout in 2021 drafts. In fact, he had an ADP of 32.7, according to Fantasy Football Calculator.
Unfortunately, the veteran wideout experienced a massive decline in his fantasy totals across the board. In fact, his catches, yardage and touchdown numbers were his worst since his rookie season. Who knew he would miss Mitchell Trubisky so much or that the selection of rookie Justin Fields would actually be bad news for Robinson’s stock?
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The point here is that few folks saw this coming because Robinson was so good in the two previous seasons. The proof, of course, is in his high-end ADP number. That leads me to this series, aptly named “The Fantasy Case Against…” where I’ll do my due diligence in looking at players who everyone in fantasy land seems to think is a sure bet to remain uber-productive after finding a high level of success in past seasons.
The series highlights big-name players or those coming off enormous statistical years who could see a surprising decline in fantasy success. Like I always say, the only predictable thing about the NFL is that it's often unpredictable. And as much as we love our fantasy heroes out on the gridiron, no one is ever guaranteed to succeed.
Next up, I'll look at Cleveland Browns wide receiver Amari Cooper.
Fantasy Case Against: Cooper Kupp | Davante Adams | Deebo Samuel | Amon-Ra St. Brown | Diontae Johnson | Cordarrelle Patterson | Michael Thomas | James Conner | Javonte Williams | DK Metcalf
2021 Season
Cooper finished 27th in fantasy points among wide receivers, recording an average of 13.5 points a game. That was his lowest total since 2017 when he averaged a modest 11.3 points with the Oakland Raiders. Cooper’s 104 targets, 68 catches and 865 yards were also his lowest totals since 2017, when he played in a career-low 14 contests.
Did You Know?
Cooper finished in the top 15 in fantasy points in two of his final three seasons with the Cowboys. In his previous four seasons, he had just one top-15 season (2016). What's more, Cooper has finished outside the top 20 in four of his seven seasons, including two years where he failed to rank among the top 30 wide receivers based on points. His average career finish is WR22, meaning he’s been a low No. 2 wideout or flex starter.
Historical Trends
Cooper has played most of his pro games with either Derek Carr or Dak Prescott under center. In those 98 contests, he averaged 14 fantasy points per game. That total would have ranked him 23rd among 2021 wideouts who played in at least 12 games.
After being traded to the Cleveland Browns this offseason, Cooper will be catching balls from a new quarterback. The problem for fantasy managers is that we’re not sure who that quarterback will be because of the off-field troubles of Deshaun Watson. The latest we’ve heard is that the NFL is looking for a potential indefinite suspension or a ban of one full season. Hopefully, more news will come out on this before training camp.
If Watson is suspended for all of 2022, the Browns will turn to veteran backup Jacoby Brissett as their starter. In his six seasons in the NFL, he has started 15 games twice (2017, 2019). Both came while he was with the Indianapolis Colts. In the first season, Brissett’s leading fantasy receiver was T.Y. Hilton. He averaged 11 points per game. No other Colts wideout averaged more than 6.4 points a game that season.
In 2019, Hilton was once again Brissett’s top wide receiver at 12.5 points a game. Zach Pascal was second, averaging 8.5 points per game. Those aren’t exactly eye-popping numbers for fantasy fans. Brissett also started five games for the Miami Dolphins last season, during which time his top wideouts were DeVante Parker (12.9 PPG) and Jaylen Waddle (11.5 PPG). Parker played in just three of those contests, however.
Coaching & Personnel Changes
Cooper will have an entirely new coaching staff and teammates around him after being traded this offseason. Head coach Kevin Stefanski will continue to lead the offense and call the plays, while Alex Van Pelt remains in his offensive coordinator role. I'll focus on Stefanski, who has been a coordinator or head coach for four-plus seasons.
In his three full seasons leading offenses in Minnesota and Cleveland, Stefanski has not had much statistical success regarding his wide receivers. No wideout has finished better than 24th in points at the position, and Stefon Diggs is the lone receiver to average more than 12.5 points in Stefanski’s offense. He finished with an average of 14.1 fantasy points per game in 2019 while the two were together with the Vikings.
That would have ranked Diggs 26th in points based on the position’s 2021 totals. Diggs had Kirk Cousins throwing him the football, not a career backup like Brissett.
The good news for Cooper is that he doesn’t have someone like CeeDee Lamb in the offensive mix. Instead, he’ll be the clear-cut No. 1 wideout in the Browns' pass attack ahead of players like Donovan Peoples-Jones, Anthony Schwartz and rookie David Bell.
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Verdict
Cooper has long been a reliable No. 2 fantasy wideout, and that’s probably his ceiling this season. But that ceiling won’t likely be met without Watson. If the league suspends him for all or part of the season, Cooper will be one of the players most affected from a fantasy perspective. Stefanski, who has leaned on the run and utilized a lot of 12 personnel, will likely run more 11-personnel (three wideouts, one running back, one tight end) and throw the football downfield far more often with Watson under center.
But with Watson’s status for the season in a shadow of a doubt, Stefanski could be forced to go back to an offense that leans on Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt and the run game with Brissett. It would be the same system that hasn’t produced a top-20 fantasy wideout (even with Cousins) and neutered a once elite receiver in Odell Beckham Jr.
Remember, OBJ came to Cleveland averaging more than 20 fantasy points per game. He averaged around 12.5 points during his forgettable two-plus years with the Browns, and he proved during his short time with the Rams that he clearly wasn’t “washed up.”
At this point, Cooper is coming off the board as the WR22 (56.2 ADP) in July on Fantasy Football Calculator. That’s simply too high with so much unknown about Watson's status for the season. If we've learned anything from the past, receivers haven't thrived under Stefanski or Brissett under center. We'll have that very unattractive fantasy combination together if Watson is unavailable for all or part of the season.
I’d feel comfortable drafting Cooper as a No. 3 fantasy wide receiver at this point, and his stock would rise if Watson were available for all or part of this season. But with the serious allegations against him, even with all of the settlements, he's not out of the woods as far as the league is concerned. In fact, in a best-case scenario, I'd be shocked to see him under center in Week 1 or at all before the second half.
As a result, fantasy managers should draft Cooper with extreme caution. Or not at all.
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Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on Sports Illustrated and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Click here to read all his articles here on SI Fantasy. You can follow Michael on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and Instagram for your late-breaking fantasy news and the best analysis in the business!
