Major League Baseball has made a series of rule changes for the upcoming season in order to speed up the pace of play and potentially increase offensive output for the league. Those changes include a pitch clock, a limit on pickoff attempts, slightly bigger bases and the banning of the shift as we know it.
For the purposes of this article, I want to dive into the shift ban and how it could affect hitters heading into your fantasy draft.
First of all: What is a shift? A shift is a defensive formation that involves position players moving away from their standard spots on the field – and usually this means three or more infielders playing on the same side of second base. Shifts most commonly take place vs left-handed batters, with the shortstop moving to the right side of the field, but it can also occur vs. right-handed pull hitters. The point of the shift is to load up one side of the infield against a pull hitter to take away more ground balls that might slip through.
As a result of the new restrictions on the shift, we will likely see some batting averages improve as more hits will go for singles. Of course, that also means we could see the correlating runs and RBIs, and of course, there are more opportunities for steals if you are on base more often (more on those bigger bases later).
According to Statcast, here are the top players with a minimum of 500 plate appearances who faced the shift in 2022.
There are some pretty big names at the top of this list, beginning with Corey Seager.
Matt Kartozian/USA Today Sports
Defenders shifted on Seager 92.8% of the time, and limited his wOBA to .326 as compared to .397 when he did not face the shift. Seager swatted 33 homers last season, but his batting average was a mere .245. Should a few more hard hits turn into singles, it should match his expected BA of .283 – which is in the 96th percentile of the league. Seager had a mere 3% of his hits as infield hits last year – the sixth lowest in the league. At an average draft position of 50 right now, Seager could be a massive fifth-round value.
Kyle Tucker is already a first-round pick, but when you combine his stolen bases, power and the fact that his batting average could go up, there’s a case he should go even higher. Tucker is one of the biggest victims of the shift, as demonstrated by the whopping disparity in wOBA between shifts (.336) and non-shifts (.463). More than 4.6% of Tucker’s hits should drop into the infield this season. Oh, and he’s in a contract year, too. Wheels up for Tucker.
Matt Olson was shifted on 81.3% of the time in 2022, and he only had six balls drop in for hits in the infield. With a hard-hit rate in the 96th percentile of the league, surely a few more will drop in for singles this season, potentially raising his average and on-base percentage atop a dangerous Braves lineup.
Shohei Ohtani will likely only strengthen his case for AL MVP this season, as he was shifted on 88.5% of the time in 2022. He has speed, average and power, and the only reason Ohtani won’t go in the first round is because of his limited hitting eligibility at only UT, but maybe that shouldn’t matter.
Other studs that could see a bump this season: Kyle Schwarber, Jose Ramirez and Yordan Alvarez.
Value Picks
Byron Buxton is our first righty on the list, but just look at Buxton’s hit spray chart.
Buxton was shifted on only 78.8% of the time – which compared to a lefty isn’t very much, but the only other righty with 150-plus plate appearances who was shifted on more was Eugenio Suarez. The difference between the shift vs. the non-shift for Buxton was dramatic. Buxton’s wOBA when the shift was on was .312; in the 21.2% of the time it was not on, it was .517. Now, of course there are always durability concerns about Buxton, but I’m willing to take the chance at where he is going in the seventh round.
Seth Brown was shifted on 88.3% of the time in 2022, and much like Kyle Tucker, had only 4.7% infield hit rate. Brown hit .230 last season, but he hit 25 home runs and stole 11 bases. If a few more hits can drop in, Brown could be a value in round 19.
Jorge Soler has a max exit velocity in the 99th percentile of the league, and he is another hard-hitting righty that was shifted on 78.8% of the time. Check out his spray chart.
You can see why teams might want to put some extra infielders on the third base side of second base. But, no more. Soler’s wOBA was .275 when hitting into the shift. It was .411 when there was no shift. If Soler could add a few more points to his BA, he could be worth an add for some late power, and he’s currently going largely undrafted.
Carlos Santana will be the DH and also play first base for the Pirates this season. Throughout his career, Santana has been the guy you can only draft in OBP leagues, as he is often hitting below the Mendoza line. However, if you are looking for cheap and late power, maybe this is the year to give Santana a chance. Santana was shifted on an astounding 98.1% of the time in 2022 -- that’s more than any other player in the MLB. His wOBA in the shift? .285. In the very few times he wasn’t shifted on, Santana’s wOBA was .545. That’s nearly double. His expected batting average last season was .256, while he actually hit .202. Santana hits the ball hard, takes his walks and doesn’t chase. If the defense can’t shift on those hard-hit balls, we could see a much better fantasy player in 2023. Santana is going largely undrafted in most leagues, but could be a good deep target in 15-teamers.
As you approach your draft, remember that In general, lefties will benefit more from the new bans on the shift, but so will some righty pull hitters. Some lefties will be affected more than others because of their quality of contact and the types of balls they tend to hit. Many lefties have been able to figure out a way to overcome the shift. For example, teams didn’t really even bother shifting on Freddie Freeman. They did, however, shift plenty on Cody Bellinger, so maybe he’ll finally have that comeback year we have anxiously been waiting for.
Other players to keep in mind: MJ Melendez, Joey Gallo, Brandon Lowe, Eddie Rosario, Anthony Rizzo, Josh Naylor and Mike Yastrzemski.
