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Tribune News Service
Tribune News Service
Sport
Eddie Brown

Fantasy baseball: Here's who will boom, bust during the 2023 baseball season

In sports and gambling there, there is a (mistaken) belief that a player who is performing better than normal will continue to play well.

We humans sometimes fail to appreciate statistical independence — i.e. two events are independent when the occurrence of one doesn't change the probability of the other.

There have been several scientific experiments to document the "hot-hand" fallacy in basketball. A player could make several shots in a row, but their shooting percentage will eventually return to their long-term average. In finance, it's called mean reversion.

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