For some, springtime means renewal and if there ever was a time for renewal, it would be after two years of dealing with a worldwide pandemic.
Spring is also about baseball, and fortunately for us, the principals who make up Major League Baseball figured out how to divide billions of dollars in revenue in time for us to have a full season.
The foundation of great preparation for your fantasy baseball season is determining the players you can draft later and yet still reap a solid value (sleepers) and/or the players you shouldn't draft at all (busts).
I recently added breakout candidates to the list and separated everyone by position.
Even if you've already drafted, add the sleepers to your watch list as potential trade candidates or waiver-wire pickups if an owner gives up too soon (it happens every year).
Obviously, avoid the busts and if you drafted one, consider yourself warned.
I consider us all breakout candidates once this pandemic is completely in our rear view:
FIRST BASE
— Breakout: Josh Bell, Nationals
A swing change could unlock 40-plus homer potential. Bell ranks in the 92nd percentile or better in average exit velocity, max exit velocity and hard-hit rate, but he puts the ball on the ground too much. He figured it out once before — he set career-highs with 37 home runs and 116 RBIs in 2019. Average Draft Position: 129 (according to FantasyPros)
— Bust: Joey Votto, Reds
The 37-year-old Votto, a former MVP, hit 36 home runs in 2021 after hitting 38 homers his previous three seasons combined. Don't pay up for one last burst of greatness. ADP: 127
— Sleeper: Alex Kirilloff, Twins
The former top prospect has eligibility at first and in the outfield. The injury bug has bitten Kirilloff early in his career, but the ailments have been fluky. Regular playing time across 140-150 games will add up to 25-30 home runs and 80-plus RBIs. ADP: 185
SECOND BASE
— Breakout: Brendan Rodgers, Rockies
Rodgers should play every day and has 25-plus homer and .290 average upside. He's also not a product of the thin air. Rodgers had a .873 OPS away from Coors Field last season. ADP: 176
— Bust: Marcus Semien, Rangers
Semien had the best season of his career in 2021. He set career highs in home runs (45), RBIs (102), steals (15) and slugging percentage (.538). We're going to see some regression in power and run-production with his move from the AL East to the AL West. ADP: 30
— Sleeper: Jean Segura, Phillies
The reliable Segura is in a contract season. He's hit at least .280 in five of the last six seasons, and you can count on double-digit home runs and stolen bases with him sitting on top of a prolific offense that should lead to many runs scored. ADP: 209
THIRD BASE
— Breakout: Matt Chapman, Blue Jays
I'm all-in on the talented Chapman playing every day in a significantly better lineup and ballpark with good health. ADP: 137
— Bust: Nolan Arenado, Cardinals
Arenado is still a great real-life player, but his days of being a high-end fantasy option are nearly done. It'll likely take a few years before he's properly priced. ADP: 51
— Sleeper: Ke'Bryan Hayes, Pirates
Hayes is another player with ground ball problems, but a wrist injury was the real culprit in a disappointing 2021. If he's healthy, he's going to hit, and I'm trusting the 25-year-old will figure out he needs to put the ball in the air to maximize his potential. ADP: 169
SHORTSTOP
— Breakout: Willy Adames, Brewers
Adames was essentially Xander Bogaerts from the time he was traded to Milwaukee last May. If he never sees Tropicana Field again, he'll be a happy man. ADP: 136
— Bust: Wander Franco, Rays
Franco's 162-game pace had him with only 16 home runs and five stolen bases. He'd have to do much more to be worthy of a top-50 pick. That's asking a lot of a 21-year-old, no matter how good they are. ADP: 47
— Sleeper: Oneil Cruz, Pirates
Kevin Newman and Cole Tucker aren't keeping this kid in the minors. Cruz is a 6-foot-7 shortstop with prodigious power and good speed. Double-digit home runs and stolen bases are a possibility if he gets the gig by Memorial Day. ADP: 227
OUTFIELDER
— Breakout: Eloy Jimenez, White Sox
Jimenez has had some false starts so far, but I believe this is the season he puts it all together. His career 162-game averages are 38 home runs, 110 RBIs, 82 runs, .270 average and an .822 OPS. He's still only 25. ADP: 59
— Bust: Byron Buxton, Twins
Talent certainly isn't the issue. Durability is. Not including his cup of coffee in 2015 and the COVID-19-shortened 2020 season, Buxton has played in only 408 games across five seasons and averaged fewer than 300 plate appearances. ADP: 53
— Sleeper: Jo Adell, Angels
Adell is a former top-5 prospect who is still only 23 and has shown serious growth this spring. He'll be surrounded by Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Anthony Rendon to help further his development. Consider yourself lucky if you can land a power-speed combo with this pedigree this late in your draft. ADP: 225
—STARTING PITCHER
Breakout: Aaron Nola, Phillies
I'm willing to chalk up Nola's disappointing 2021 to a lot of bad luck and him losing confidence in his fastball, which caused batters to sit on his curveball. I expect him to contend for a the Cy Young award this season. ADP: 42
— Bust: Carlos Rodon, Giants
Rodon finally fulfilled his immense potential in 2021, but he also hit a wall in early August. He pitched well when he returned, but there was a noticeable drop in velocity, which is usually a harbinger of bad things to come. Pitching in San Francisco will likely cause him to get drafted even earlier. ADP: 90
— Sleeper: Eduardo Rodriguez, Tigers
Most will look at Rodriguez's career-worst 4.74 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 2021 and pass. However, he improved his strikeout and walk rate while suffering some serious bad luck. He's also moved from Fenway Park to pitcher-friendly Comerica Park. ADP: 146
RELIEF PITCHER
— Breakout: Giovanny Gallegos, Cardinals
With Alex Reyes out of action with a right shoulder injury, Gallegos is one of the better values in drafts. ADP: 113
— Bust: Aroldis Chapman, Yankees
Saves and strikeouts are becoming more costly with every passing season from The Missile. He allowed nine home runs in 2021 after only allowing 12 from 2016-to-2020. ADP: 86
— Sleeper: Scott Barlow, Royals
You can't beat good ratios, strikeouts and 30-plus saves from the 15th reliever off the draft board. ADP: 157
CATCHER
— Breakout: Tyler Stephenson, Reds
Stephenson produced 10 home runs and a .286 average in his rookie season while splitting time with Tucker Barnhart. Cincinnati traded Barnhart to Detroit. There's 20-plus homer upside here. ADP: 179
— Bust: Salvador Perez, Royals
Don't pay for Perez's historic outlier 2021 season — he led the majors with 48 home runs and 121 RBIs. His career 162-game averages are 25 homers and 88 RBIs, which means he could be the top fantasy catcher this season and still be a "bust" where he's being drafted. ADP: 29
— Sleeper: Alejandro Kirk, Blue Jays
Kirk could see more at-bats as Toronto's designated hitter after Randal Grichuk was traded to Colorado. Consistent playing time will make him an asset in average and on-base percentage along with 20-plus homer upside. ADP: 264
