While the buzz surrounding a head-to-head clash between rival Kerala Congress factions in Kottayam and the intense three-cornered battle in Pathanamthitta seemed more pronounced than in the previous election, the statistics paint a different picture.
Initial estimates suggest that the overall voter turnout in Kottayam was 65.59%, significantly down from the 75.47% recorded in 2019. Similarly, the Pathanamthitta constituency saw a turnout of 63.33%, marking one of the lowest voter participation in the election.
Also read: Kerala Lok Sabha elections 2024
Given the scorching heatwave in central Travancore in the recent weeks, a decline in turnout was somewhat expected by political observers. However, the magnitude of the drop has caught political parties off guard, leaving them uncertain about its impact on the final results.
“A thorough analysis is needed to assess this decline in polling percentage. Delay in the voting process, leading to long queues at polling booths, could be one reason,” remarked Jose K. Mani, chairman of Kerala Congress (M), expressing confidence in a favourable outcome for the Left Democratic Front (LDF).
Allegation of a deal
Contrarily, the National Democratic Alliance argues that voter turnout was notably lower in areas where the CPI(M) traditionally holds sway. “While the BJP ensured its party votes were cast, it seems the LDF did not prioritise securing its traditional support base. This raises suspicions of a deal between the LDF and the United Democratic Front (UDF),” asserted V.A. Sooraj, president of the BJP district unit in Pathanamthitta.
The UDF too acknowledged that the polling percentage fell short of expectations. “The prevailing climatic conditions were a factor. However, we ensured it wouldn’t impact the UDF’s electoral prospects,” said Anto Antony, the UDF candidate in Pathanamthitta.
Unpredictable
Despite conventional wisdom suggesting that a significant rise or fall in vote share indicates a landslide victory for one side, analysts believe support for the UDF and LDF remained largely consistent this time. However, the NDA’s ability to rally its core vote bank introduces an element of unpredictability.
Over the next month, parties are anticipated to conduct detailed booth-wise analyses of their candidates’ electoral prospects to make more informed predictions.
