The new French government faces many challenges, including questions about its democratic legitimacy, and a public debt which has worried France’s EU partners. We discuss the economic outlook with former Spanish foreign minister Arancha Gonzalez Laya, who is now dean of the Paris School of International Affairs. We also look at Ursula von der Leyen’s new line-up at the European Commission, and the current geopolitical challenges that the EU is facing including migration and the conflict in the Middle East.
France's debt
France's public debt is likely to rise this year to up to 5.6%, instead of falling, according to finance ministry figures. For Gonzalez Laya, debt needs to be well managed to avoid “handicapping future generations from progressing economically.”
She adds that, to get the debt under control, “everyone needs to behave on the budget side, on the deficit side, on the fiscal side.” She warns that if France fails to do so, “it will limit the ability of France to be very offensive in the budget discussions that will open in 2025 for the future European budget.”
French influence in the EU commission
The new French commissioner, former foreign minister Stéphane Séjourné, will control fewer portfolios in Ursula von der Leyen’s new Commission than his predecessor, Thierry Breton. Asked if France has lost influence, Gonzalez Laya jokes that, for the French, “it’s a national sport to consider themselves belittled.” She notes that Séjourné’s portfolio “is the central priority of this European Commission, which is the economic recovery of Europe,” adding that he still has “two big chunks: macroeconomics and also microeconomics. The entire industrial portfolio.”
Séjourné “will have to work hand in hand with the Spanish commissioner, Teresa Ribera, who will be in charge of aligning the economy with Europe’s decarbonisation objectives and social justice,” she says.
“The two commissioners have the very important task of reigniting the European economic engine, because there is no geopolitics in Europe if we are not strong economically,” Gonzalez Laya states.
The progressive agenda
Asked if the progressive agenda has been pushed back in the new, more right-leaning EU Commission – with previous roles on jobs and social rights, equality, and the Green Deal seemingly being watered down – Gonzalez Laya says, “If social justice is not at the heart of the European project, the European project will not have legitimacy. The last five years showed that we need a better dosage between competitiveness, decarbonisation and social justice. Without this social justice piece, we will have trouble advancing competitiveness and decarbonisation.”
Border control & migration
As Germany reintroduces border controls and the Netherlands asks to opt out of common asylum rules, immigration is once again at the heart of the debate in Europe.
“We have to tackle the problem of irregular migrants,” affirms Gonzalez Laya. “We have to be very clear that whoever is rejected asylum has to leave the European space.”
But she adds that migration must remain “one of the key factors of our competitiveness. If we do not integrate the topic in our discussions, we are going to have big legitimacy trouble again in Europe.”
Gonzalez Laya concludes that Europe “should stay firm on irregular migration and give ourselves the means to control our borders better,” but that “we should also talk about migration for what it is – an enormous necessity in Europe.”
Programme prepared by Perrine Desplats, Luke Brown, Elitsa Gadeva and Isabelle Romero
