For Vladimir Putin, the abortive Wagner Group coup has been a humiliating affair that exposed his lack of control over military units ostensibly fighting for Russia. It was an episode that the Russian president is unlikely to forgive in a hurry.
But for the Belarusian dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, it has been a boon. With the rebels just 200km from Moscow, Minsk announced Lukashenko had brokered a deal with their leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, promising a safe passage and amnesty for Prigozhin’s troops and a one-way ticket to Belarus for himself. Shortly after this announcement, Prigozhin aborted his march on the Russian capital and his soldiers began to withdraw from the two Russian cities they had occupied.
Lukashenko can now pose as someone whose intervention got the Russian president out of a tight spot and helped stave off a civil war in Russia. On the morning of June 24, the situation looked serious, as Putin spoke of treason and declared a state of emergency. But then, out of the blue, Lukashenko saved the day – or so the narrative goes.
