Often we put too much stock into one game, whether it’s good or bad.
For example, the Jaguars might be AFC contenders again after a surprising win against the Bills. But Jacksonville, which had a slow first month of the season, might not even be the best team in the AFC South. The Colts defeated the Titans, and Texans lost on a last-second field goal vs. the Falcons.
On the other hand, the Patriots were crushed by the Saints—and that’s not their first ugly game this season. There’s probably enough of a sample size to predict how the Patriots’ season will end, with 12 games remaining on the season.
Here are five NFL narratives, which include the Jaguars and Patriots, that we deemed to be either fact or fiction after Week 5 of the NFL regular season.
Patriots will lose 10 or more games for the first time since 2000
Kevin Jairaj/USA TODAY Sports
Manzano’s view: Fact
This is shaping up to be the Patriots’ worst season under coach Bill Belichick after an embarrassing loss to the Saints dropped their record to 1–4. New England can’t score points offensively, and the defense hasn’t lived up to its high expectations (partly because of injuries to key players). The Patriots probably won’t do as bad as they did in 2000, Belichick’s first season: It was the last time they finished at the bottom of the AFC East, and they finished 5–11. But it’s tough seeing this New England team winning more than seven games with a daunting schedule remaining, including two games against the Bills and meetings with the Dolphins and Chiefs. After ugly back-to-back losses to the Cowboys and Saints, the Patriots might not be able to hang with most teams in the NFL. They also might need a permanent quarterback change after benching Mac Jones twice in as many weeks.
Jaguars are heavy AFC South favorites again
Manzano’s view: Fiction
The Jaguars had an impressive win against the Bills, but this division is still wide open after all four teams entered Sunday at 2–2. Perhaps I’ll change my mind in a few weeks if the Jaguars do what they did offensively in London on a consistent basis. After a slow start to the season, Trevor Lawrence delivered his best performance of the season vs. the Bills, completing 25-of-37 for 315 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions—with two lost fumbles. Wide receiver Calvin Ridley (seven catches, 122 yards) and running back Travis Etienne Jr. (136 rushing yards, two touchdowns) also stepped up during the upset win. The Jaguars’ defense did its part, holding the Bills to only 29 rushing yards. It was an impressive performance all around, but we can’t put too much stock into one game. The Jaguars lost to the Texans by 20 points two weeks ago. The Colts might be without Anthony Richardson for the foreseeable future after he exited against the Titans with a shoulder injury, but they can stay afloat with Gardner Minshew.
Dolphins will win AFC East after bounce-back win vs. Giants
Manzano’s view: Fiction
The Dolphins got back on track with a dominant win against the struggling Giants, who have made many teams look good this season. But the Dolphins didn’t need the Giants to have another offensive surge, even a week after a flat performance vs. the Bills. The Dolphins (4–1) will score many more touchdowns across the remainder of the season, but they still have issues on the defensive side, which might prevent them from winning the AFC East. Miami will host Buffalo again during the final week of the regular season, with the division title potentially on the line.
Ravens won’t fix their offensive struggles after loss to Steelers
Manzano’s view: Fact
Lamar Jackson had two costly turnovers during a dreadful offensive performance for the Ravens in Pittsburgh. But this isn’t solely one bad game vs. a divisional rival. The Ravens, who fell 17–10 to the Steelers, have failed to get on the same page with new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. Jackson was supposed to flourish as a passer in Monken’s offensive scheme, but the Ravens haven’t been patient with the approach, often returning to their run-heavy ways. They haven’t gotten much from wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman, and they’re desperately missing running back J.K. Dobbins, who tore his Achilles in the season opener. But the rushing attack wasn’t the issue during the loss against the Steelers. Jackson finished 22-of-38 for 236 yards with no touchdowns—he averaged 6.2 yards per attempt.
Justin Fields’s improvements as a passer is no fluke
Jamie Sabau/USA TODAY Sports
Perhaps no quarterback has played better than Fields the past two weeks. He’s thrown for a combined eight touchdowns passes and only one interception in games against the Broncos and Commanders. The lone interception, however, was a costly mistake: It derailed the Bears’ comeback attempt after blowing a 21-point lead vs. Denver in Week 4. But Fields didn’t have a turnover in the win against the Commanders Thursday night, and he had a clutch 56-yard touchdown strike to DJ Moore on third down to end any chance of a Washington rally. Fields’s improvement as a passer is no fluke—he trusted offensive coordinator Luke Getsy’s scheme, one designed for the third-year quarterback to get in a rhythm with his arm early in games. Initially, Fields expressed frustrations with not being able to run as much this season, but the commitment is starting to pay off. Unfortunately for the Bears, they dug themselves a 0–4 start as they adjusted to changes on both sides of the ball. But if Fields is able to play the way he has the past two weeks for the rest of the season, perhaps he’ll force the Bears to remain committed to him, regardless of what draft picks they’ll end up with after the season.
