After the Japanese Grand Prix – and due to the cancellation of the Middle Eastern races in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia – Formula 1 has entered an extended break, which provides an ideal opportunity to take a closer look at the data and analyse how the new regulations have impacted the field.
After looking into the team-mate battles in 2026 and the dominance Mercedes is exhibiting, we’ll now take a detailed dive into the current competitive landscape. First, an overview: across the first three race weekends, the field of 11 teams and 22 drivers was separated by 3.63 seconds in qualifying and 3.60s per lap in race trim.
This represents a significant increase in spread when compared with last year. In 2025, the entire field was covered by just 1.14s in qualifying and 1.52s per lap in the race. Over the winter, the gap between the fastest and slowest teams has nearly tripled – an expected consequence of the new regulations and the arrival of newcomer Cadillac.
A glance at the history books shows that such large performance gaps were last seen in 2017. Back then, Sauber trailed dominant Mercedes by an average of 3.64s in qualifying.
Competitive order: Red Bull at its weakest since 2015
At present, Mercedes is clearly dominating proceedings. Across the first three race weekends, its average advantage was 0.56 seconds in qualifying over Ferrari, and 0.53s per lap in race pace. Ferrari has thus established itself as the primary challenger.
McLaren follows as the third force (qualifying: +0.78s, race pace: +0.82s), ahead of Red Bull (qualifying: +0.97s, race pace: +1.26s). Red Bull’s deficit is particularly striking – such a large gap to the front has not been recorded for the team since 2015.
In the midfield, Alpine currently leads the pack, closely followed by Haas. At the back of the grid, Aston Martin and Cadillac are struggling with significant deficits.
Overall, the field can presently be divided into five performance groups: a clearly dominant Mercedes at the front; Ferrari and McLaren as the immediate pursuers; a tightly packed upper midfield ranging from Red Bull to Audi; Williams occupying a no man’s land; and Aston Martin alongside Cadillac bringing up the rear.
Ferrari-powered teams stronger in race trim
An interesting pattern emerges when comparing qualifying and race pace: Ferrari-powered cars tend to perform better in race conditions. With the exception of Ferrari itself and Cadillac, all teams are closer to Mercedes in qualifying than in race trim.
Ferrari manages to gain, on average, around three-hundredths of a second per lap on Mercedes during races. Cadillac shows a similar tendency. Haas also experiences a smaller drop-off compared to the rest of the midfield.
The reasons for this may be varied: strong starts allowing for clean air, or an engine that operates more efficiently over race distances but lacks peak performance in qualifying.
Rapid development: Cadillac already gains a second
Another fascinating aspect is the rate of development over the season. While some teams introduced updates for round three at Suzuka, current performance gains seem to be driven primarily by a better understanding of the new cars – particularly engine mapping.
Cadillac, in particular, stands out positively. The newcomer was 4.12s per lap behind Mercedes in Australia, but reduced that gap to 3.18s in Japan – despite the longer Suzuka circuit.
This represents an improvement of nearly a full second. However, all teams have reduced their deficits. It should also be noted that Mercedes often ran in traffic in Japan and was therefore unable to fully demonstrate its true pace.
At the front, McLaren made significant progress. In Australia, its race pace deficit was still 1.34s per lap; in Japan, it was reduced to just 0.29s. Even when isolating the more representative second stint, McLaren was 0.53s off Mercedes – much closer than at the season opener.
2025 vs. 2026: only Mercedes, Alpine, and Ferrari improve
A comparison with the previous year also yields interesting insight. The field has spread out considerably, which also means that only three teams have improved relative to the front. Chief among them is Mercedes: in 2025, it trailed then-leader McLaren by an average of 0.55s per lap; now, it clearly leads the field.
Ferrari has improved marginally by 0.01s per lap. In practical terms, however, its gap to the front remains almost unchanged – it merely appears stronger because its rivals have fallen back.
Alpine has also made gains, reducing its deficit to the front by 0.07s per lap compared with last year. A small improvement with a significant impact: the team has moved from the back of the grid into the upper midfield.
In contrast, several teams have suffered major setbacks. Aston Martin has been hit particularly hard, with its gap to the front increasing by 2.29s per lap. Williams (+1.46s) and Red Bull (+0.95s) are also among the biggest losers under the new regulations.
