September’s employment and inflation data have beaten expectations and seem to have paved the way for the Fed to respond with another aggressive rate hike during its November meeting.
With the previous rate hikes manifesting in the form of softening demand, increased borrowing costs, and compressed margins in the Q3 earnings, a soft landing for the economy increasingly seems like an improbable scenario. Based on the probability model, the Conference Board has predicted a 96% likelihood of a recession in the United States within the next 12 months.
