For American diplomacy in the Middle East, the extraordinary attack in Lebanon that simultaneously detonated hundreds of pagers used by Hezbollah members could not have come at a less auspicious moment – and may still spark an escalation that the US had been seeking desperately to avoid.
A day before the coordinated sabotage, Amos Hochstein, a senior adviser to Joe Biden, was in Israel urging Benjamin Netanyahu and other senior Israeli officials against an escalation in Lebanon. The US defense secretary, Lloyd Austin, and the Israeli defence minister, Yoav Gallant, had also warned that time was running out to find a negotiated settlement between Israel and Hezbollah.
What remains to be seen is whether the pager attack is a prelude to a broader operation by Israeli forces that could now take advantage of the hundreds, or perhaps even thousands, of Hezbollah operatives who have been maimed and injured.
The attacks have probably disrupted the organisation’s communications. The pagers were obtained as a low-risk alternative to mobile phones, allowing the group to communicate remotely without opening itself up to drone strikes as part of Israel’s campaign of targeted assassinations of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders.
Israeli media reports suggest the operation was the result of a supply-chain hack, allowing the Mossad operatives to plant explosives into the pagers before they were sold on to Hezbollah.
One video shot from southern Lebanon on Tuesday showed young men with eye injuries and large body wounds in an overflowing hospital corridor. Having shown its hand, the Israeli military may now decide to take advantage of Hezbollah’s disarray before the organisation has a chance to reconstitute itself.
The Israeli government last night announced that it would broaden its war aims to include the return of tens of thousands of civilians to its border with Lebanon, potentially handing Netanyahu a casus belli if he decides to launch a ground invasion into Lebanon, as some Israeli and US officials fear he will.
And while US officials have said that the basis for a peace along Israel’s northern boundary with Lebanon would come through a ceasefire in Gaza, that agreement has proven elusive and appears no closer to fruition. The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, travelled to the Middle East on Tuesday to discuss the deal with Egypt, an intermediary to Hamas, but will bypass Israel as the latest iteration of the deal was not ready yet, a spokesperson said.
The US also faces losing a key intermediary in Gallant, who has been critical of Netanyahu. His potential replacement as defence minister is Gideon Saar, the leader of the rightwing New Hope party, who is seen as more radical.
The White House had hoped that a period of quiet around Israel would allow for ceasefire negotiators to achieve a breakthrough, as intermediaries shuttle between Hamas and Israel to thread the needle of both sides’ complex demands regarding a hostage exchange and territorial claims.
That period of quiet has now been shattered with a breathtaking act of subterfuge and Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate.
With both Hamas and Hezbollah under extraordinary pressure, the US has now warned the groups’ backer Iran against escalation. “We would urge Iran not to take advantage of any incident to try to add further instability and to further increase tensions in the region,” said the state department spokesperson, Matthew Miller.
