Experts have warned that the UK is “flying blind” with Covid-19 cases expected to surge this autumn.
The latest figures from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) show that Covid cases increased by 45 per cent in a week, accounting for about one in 20 respiratory infections.
Christina Pagel, a professor of operational research at University College London, said a new wave could hit the UK over the coming months.
“We might see the wave continue to grow, and grow faster, in September,” she told the Guardian.
“What worries me most is if we get a repeat of the last winter NHS crisis this winter again, with Covid, flu and RSV all hitting around the same time,” said Pagel. “We are definitely flying near blind.”
The UKHSA continues to track Covid data but some of the community surveillance studies monitoring infection levels have finished.
Prof Rowland Kao, an epidemiologist at the University of Edinburgh, said: “With seasonal flu, we have of course a certain amount of predictability with the many years of data. However, with Covid, now that we don’t have those multiple data streams to rely on, it’s harder to say what is happening [in the general population].”
The overall Covid hospital admission rate for the most recent week has also increased by 68 per cent from 1.17 to 1.97 per 100,000 people.
Admissions for people aged 85 have also more than doubled in a week from 9.8 to 20.49 per 100,000.
The UKHSA has advised people to stay at home if they experience symptoms of respiratory illness.
Dr Mary Ramsay, head of immunisation at the UKHSA, said: “We continue to see a rise in Covid-19 cases in this week’s report.
“We have also seen a small rise in hospital admission rates in most age groups, particularly among the elderly.
“Overall levels of admission still remain extremely low and we are not currently seeing a similar increase in [intensive care unit] ICU admissions. We will continue to monitor these rates closely.
“If you have symptoms of a respiratory illness, we recommend staying away from others where possible.
“The NHS will be in contact in autumn 2023 when the seasonal vaccine is available for those who are eligible due to health conditions or age, and we urge everyone who is offered to take up the vaccine when offered.”
The sub-variant eris is also spreading rapidly across Europe, Asia and North America. Japan said it is seeing a “ninth wave” of Covid infections.
The UKHSA first raised eris as a concern in July.
Eris is now already the second-most-common strain in the country, after the omicron subvariant XBB.1.16, nicknamed arcturus.
