Climate change impacts on the Gulf Stream could make Ireland colder, a new report warns.
The Gulf Stream is a strong ocean current that washes warm water from the Gulf of Mexico into the Atlantic Ocean and takes cold water south, making our climate more temperate.
But an Irish Ocean Climate and Ecosystem Status report now predicts shifting patterns could see its impact reduced by 30 per cent in future.
Read more: Ireland weather: Met Eireann forecasts unusual conditions as mercury rises amid thunderstorm deluge
Other key findings from the report include a 2-3mm sea level rise since the 1990s, a 0.5 degree rise in sea surface temperatures on the north coast in the past decade, increased acidification of surface water and year-round algal blooms that harm sea life.
Experts say the changes were most likely caused by increased temperatures as a result of human-induced climate change.
In their summary for policy makers, authors from the Marine Institure, Met Eireann, the EPA, NGOs and Irish universities said: “Irish waters are warming and have become more acidic; the distribution and abundance of key plankton, fish and seabird species are shifting and sea levels are rising in most coastal waters.
“Changes, however, are not taking place uniformly around the Irish coast.”
They said atmospheric temperatures could drop 10 degrees if the Gulf Stream collapsed altogether.
While that’s “unlikely” they added “the Gulf Stream System is weaker now than it has been in 1,000 years”.
The report also reiterated concerns about the impact of rising sea levels on the country.
According to the experts Dublin and Cork “have seen higher sea level rise more than the global averages”.
“If the West Antarctic Ice Sheet should melt, Ireland is in the trajectory for a sea level rise 15–20% higher than global average rates.”
According to the research, Ireland is vulnerable to changing, extreme sea levels as we are on the edge of the Atlantic.
The reports adds: “Wave and storm surges pose an increasing threat to coastal communities with Dublin and Galway recording notable wave overtopping events.”
This is projected to decrease over the summer and winter months - but “remains uncertain”.
Oceans have the potential to mitigate some climate change effects.
The experts say the “challenge is to transition from carbonintensive activities to those with higher mitigation potential”.
Dr Gerard McCarthy from the Icarus research facility at Maynooth University told RTÉ’s Morning Ireland: “Some climate change is locked in and will happen but we will have a much less extreme experience if we hit those climate targets.
“Without the Gulf Stream system the climate of Ireland would be much more like the climate of Iceland.
“We have evidence from observations and from climate models that the Gulf Stream system is expected to weaken with climate change.
“What that means for Ireland is that we could be looking at... a relative cooling and increase in storminess and a decrease in precipitation, particularly in the summer time.
“This is really remarkable that an area of the world is cooling when the whole other part of the world is warming up.
“The difference between emitting a high emissions scenario and a much more moderate and controlled amount of carbon or reaching our targets and reaching carbon neutrality are very, very different.”
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