Former President Donald Trump is highly unlikely to again run the risk of appointing relatively moderate, established officials who may push back against him to his Cabinet if he wins a second term, experts told Salon.
Trump's former Secretary of Defense James Mattis has said he "had no choice but to leave" when he issued a 2018 resignation letter that defended NATO, criticized Russia and China's authoritarianism and said allies should be treated with respect.
In 2019, Trump ousted his third national security adviser John Bolton, who had tried to restrain Trump's approach to Iran, North Korea and Afghanistan.
In a fall 2020 tweet, Trump fired subsequent Defense Secretary Mark Esper, who has said Trump wanted to "shoot" unarmed people protesting the police killing of George Floyd.
Trump in his second term will put loyalty first, predicted Bowdoin College government professor Andrew Rudalevige.
"There's definitely an organized effort to try to make sure that they have identified loyalists who would serve in a new administration," Rudalevige told Salon, later adding: "I think in a second term, the idea is to make sure that they will carry out the orders that the president has in mind without going through the trouble of firing everyone who resists."
The presence of more moderate Republicans in Trump's Cabinet didn't prevent a mob of thousands of people storming the Capitol on January 6, or the fumbled handling of the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, or Trump withdrawing from key international agreements.
But experts told Salon that the likely lack of any moderate presence on Trump's potential second Cabinet means he could face little to no internal resistance as his team rolls out his sweeping vision — including for the "largest deportation operation in American history."
Trump touted his appointment of four-star Marine general Mattis, whom he referred to as: "my General."
"In some cases, he picked folks for different agencies, maybe based on reputation, or wanting to get praise for being viewed as picking somebody who was particularly good or competent for a position," Vanderbilt University political science professor John Dearborn said.
But at least half-way through Trump's term, Dearborn said Trump and his close advisers realized that such officials "were not going to just do everything that the president wanted automatically."
Dartmouth College sociology professor John Campbell said the MAGA wing's take-over of the Republican Party makes it further unlikely that Trump will appoint any moderates.
Moderate Republicans are a "dying breed," he told Salon.
"To the extent that a moderate wing of the Republican Party was able to moderate some of the things he tried to do the first time around, that wing of the party is pretty much gone," Campbell said. "A lot of the people he appointed the first time thought the guy didn't know what he was doing and quit."
Former homeland security and counterterrorism advisor Olivia Troye said that during her time in the Trump administration, she grew disturbed by a glaring lack of interest in questions about legality and consequences.
"I was in those conversations, and there were times when people like General Mattis and others had to weigh in and say: 'This is what that's going to do. It's going to create great damage,'" Troye told Salon.
TURNING TO HIS FIRST CABINET
With three months to go until the November election, Trump can count on the loyalty of at least half of his former Cabinet-level officials.
A Washington Post review of 42 Trump Cabinet-level officials found two dozen said they still support the former president — or about 56%.
Of the remaining officials, three — former Vice President Mike Pence, Esper and Bolton — have gone on record opposing Trump. The remaining 15 former cabinet-ranking members — including Mattis — have yet to take a public stance.
Another former Cabinet member, Kelly Craft, co-hosted a Trump fundraiser in May, according to the Lexington Herald Leader.
The lack of stated support from a sizable minority of his cabinet may be a departure from previous presidents such as Obama — but Trump can still count on sizable support from a party that's embraced him, as well as lower-level administration members.
“President Trump has unified and strengthened the Republican Party more than ever before and is supported by nearly every single GOP leader and elected official, including most of his former cabinet and staff," Karoline Leavitt, Trump campaign national press secretary, told The Washington Post in a statement.
Trump has support from at least four former acting officials, including former acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker and former national security officials including acting Director of National Intelligence Ric Grenell.
Meanwhile, at least four Cabinet members — former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, former Small Business Administration head Linda McMahon and former EPA chief Andrew Wheeler — have publicly said they'd welcome serving again in a second Trump administration.
At least a dozen former Trump cabinet members, administration officials and aides are reportedly in the running for a potential second Trump term, according to reporting by news outlets including Axios and The Associated Press. Those officials include former senior policy adviser Stephen Miller, Project 2025 architect Russ Vought, former national security official and House staffer Kash Patel and former White House Presidential Personnel Office director John McEntee.
Trump himself has already suggested former cabinet members and acting officials could serve in his second term: including former acting Defense Secretary Christopher Miller for Pentagon chief.
Other potential picks include vice-presidential hopefuls, primary challenges and Congressional allies such as Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla.; Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C.; North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum; Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark.; and former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif.
Trump could also reward allies who traveled to his Manhattan criminal trial in May to voice support for him: including New York U.S. Rep. Nicole Malliotakis and former GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson also traveled to Manhattan — a move that signals Trump could count on loyalty from the GOP-led House.
Ivanka Trump and Jared Kusher have taken a back seat in Trump's 2024 campaign — Kushner has said he won't join a second Trump administration.
Trump's sons Eric and Donald Jr. are helping vet candidates for ideology and loyalty, according to Axios. At an RNC event in Milwaukee, Trump Jr. said he urged his dad to pick JD Vance as VP. He also said he wants a "veto" over Trump administration picks.
