It is time to enter the final phase of the 2022 WNBA season as the first round of the playoffs tips off Wednesday.
In a season dedicated to Brittney Griner by many around the league, there has been a focus on players’ impacts both on and off the court. We’ve already said goodbye to one legend in Sylvia Fowles and will prepare to do the same with another in Sue Bird.
But before we officially embark on the postseason mayhem, the Sports Illustrated staff makes some picks and predictions about what’s to come in the next month.
Kamil Krzaczynski/USA TODAY Sports (Parker); Sam Morris/Associated Press (Bird); Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press (Gray)
Which first-round matchup are you most intrigued by?
Julie Kliegman: This is a tough one. I think we’ll get chalk (apologies to my beloved Liberty). But if I had to pick a matchup, I’d say Storm-Mystics. When at full strength, the Mystics have been interesting this season, and the Storm have looked, eh, borderline concerning at times. (Will their aging star remember how to shoot a two?) Never doubt Elena Delle Donne’s ability to give a club a run for its money or Natasha Cloud’s sheer will.
Wilton Jackson: The changes to this year’s playoff format make things interesting. But the one series that has me contemplating a winner is the Storm-Mystics series. In a rematch of the 2018 WNBA Finals, both teams are different from what they were four years ago. Seattle won the regular-season series, 2–1, with one of those wins eked out by just three points. It doesn’t get any better than watching the Delle Donne–Breanna Stewart matchup and the guard competition (Natasha Cloud–Ariel Atkins vs. Sue Bird–Jewell Loyd). Bird could be on the verge of winning one last title on her retirement tour, or the Mystics could return among the league’s list of WNBA champions.
Elizabeth Swinton: The No. 6 Wings enter their series against the No. 3 Sun in a unique position, having won two of the three regular-season contests between the two teams. Still, Connecticut ended the year on a hot streak behind a strong defensive showing. This series seems most ripe for an upset if the Wings’ defense can hold the Sun down and get offensive contributions with Arike Ogunbowale out for the series.
Claire Kuwana: I have to say I’m most intrigued by Connecticut and Dallas. The Sun have been on fire (and have playoff experience), but the Wings also have momentum behind them after a five-game winning streak pushed them to finish over .500 for the first time in franchise history, and a final regular-season game in which they set a team record for first-half points.
Amna Subhan: In any first-round playoff matchup, I’m always most interested in the close-seeded matchup, in this case: No. 4 Seattle vs. No. 5 Washington. There are a lot of alluring story lines to follow. Tina Charles versus her former team. The matchup between Delle Donne and Stewart. But most of all, Bird. All eyes will be on Sue Bird. With the legendary point guard retiring at the end of the season there will be a lot of lasts, and I want to catch every last one.
Which player has the most breakout potential?
JK: Wings rookie guard Veronica Burton, and not just because I’m a Northwestern homer. With All-Star Ogunbowale still sidelined, Burton has more minutes to shine. And with the Ewing Theory takes (I don’t subscribe) heating up big time, she has some momentum to keep it going. I don’t think Dallas will ultimately make it past the Sun, but I do think it can steal a game. Burton will make some end-of-season voters regret not putting her on their All-Rookie teams.
WJ: On a star-studded Aces’ team, Chelsea Gray has the most potential to become a breakout player. Becky Hammon has done a tremendous job leading a talented group with MVP candidate A’ja Wilson, Kelsey Plum, an emerging Jackie Young and Dearica Hamby (despite an injury making her availability unknown). With all of that talent, Gray is the key to the Aces’ engine on offense, and I would not be surprised if she continued a recent surge of dominance on the court that recently includes a career-high 33-point performance against the Storm in the regular-season finale.
ES: Kelsey Plum has had a stellar year for the Aces and now has the opportunity to lead the team to a championship. With A’ja Wilson drawing plenty of attention, Plum will have the opportunity to continue to shine from beyond the arc. The Aces have many key contributors, but I have my eye on Plum to reach another level in the playoffs.
CK: I’m rooting for Washington rookie Shakira Austin to take off. She is already a star rebounder, but she has potential to up her production on both ends of the court with the added pressure of the playoffs. If she can use her height to get a little more physical, she could be one of the most impactful players on the court in the first round—especially playing alongside veteran Elena Delle Donne, who is back after missing most of the past two seasons.
AS: Jonquel Jones and the Sun have the most breakout potential. Last year’s regular-season MVP and a consistent playoff team of five years having the most potential? I know, but it’s the time to prove it in the postseason. Jones’s numbers took a dip this season across the board, but if she can tap into her bag from last year she just might lead the Sun to depths the franchise has never seen before.
Who is a dark horse team to look out for?
JK: Like I said, I think Round 1 will be all chalk. But there’ll be lots of room for surprises in the semifinals. I’m eager to see what the Sun can do against the Sky (and not just weather-wise, ha). Curt Miller’s squads are always feisty. I think last year was Connecticut’s year, unfortunately, but counting out Jonquel Jones is always a mistake. And the Sky might not have the same fire after winning last year’s championship.
WJ: The Mystics. While there is a question mark surrounding the team’s longest-tenured player in Natasha Cloud (knee injury), the team has pieces to shake up the postseason. The Mystics’ starting lineup—Delle Donne, Atkins, Cloud, Alysha Clark and rookie Shakira Austin—entered the season finale with the fifth-best offensive rating and the fourth-best defensive rating among five-player lineups. But, even more, that same lineup (minus Austin) are all in the top 15 in defensive win shares, while the Mystic are the league’s best defensive-rated team. If Washington's defense is strong with a balance of elite scoring from Delle Donne & Co., watch out for the Mystics.
ES: The Mystics may be getting hot at the right time after finishing the season on a 7–3 run. They will get tested against Seattle right away in the first round in what may potentially be Sue Bird's final playoff series. These teams finished with the same regular-season record at 22–14, but if Delle Donne can quiet Stewart, the Mystics may have an upset in them.
CK: Again, Dallas has the potential to exceed expectations. And I’m not just saying that because the “Backcourt Burglar” Veronica Burton has a spot in the starting lineup. And the Wings did beat every other team in the WNBA at least once this season, so who’s to say they can’t do it again?
AS: A team that is too inexperienced to understand its ceiling is a dangerous one. The Liberty exude that naivete. Yes, they’ll have to face the reigning champions Sky, but don’t expect the broom to come out. Coach Sandy Brondello may have been here before including a Finals run with the Mercury against said Sky, but the core players have not. Who knows, Sabrina Ionescu could set yet another new league record? Regardless, it’ll be entertaining.
Watch the WNBA with fuboTV. Start free trial today.
What’s your bold prediction?
JK: Han Xu and the Liberty push the Sky to three games, and former mascot Maddie comes out of retirement to party with Ellie at Barclays Center. On May 6, 2021, SI contributor Howard Megdal wrote for his women’s hoops newsletter, The Next, that “in what was a relief to both [Liberty CEO Keia] Clarke’s two children and, full disclosure, mine as well, Maddie isn’t going to just disappear.” EXCEPT: She has, even though Clarke told Megdal: “We’re not putting Maddie down, if that’s what you’re asking.” So expect her to make it down from her farm upstate.
WJ: Imagine if Plum puts on an incredible shooting performance, one in which she hits eight or nine three-pointers in a single game. If that happens, she could potentially tie Diana Taurasi’s record for the second-most three-pointers made (eight) in a single playoff game or Kristi Toliver’s record of nine three-pointers made, the most made in a playoff game in WNBA history. If Plum surpasses both Taurasi and Toliver, that would be epic. Not to mention, Taurasi posted her historic shooting night against the Aces last year. With Plum’s ability to knock down the long-range jumper, the idea of her posting a monster night from downtown is not far-fetched. Plus, it gives Cayden, Hammon’s son, another reason to stay up past his bedtime to watch Las Vegas compete.
ES: Another underdog will make the Finals. Chicago made it all the way as the No. 6 seed last year, and more upsets can be on the way this time around. The Mystics, Wings, Liberty and Mercury all have a chance to make it happen.
CK: Hopefully this isn’t really a bold prediction, but this will be the most-watched WNBA playoffs in history. (Maybe some of the first-round games will even top the first round of the NBA playoffs.) If the NCAA tournament was any indicator, people are tuning in to women’s basketball more than ever, and with stars like A’ja Wilson and Sue Bird at the forefront of the playoffs, numbers should be high.
AS: Chelsea Gray will earn Finals MVP. Sure, A’ja Wilson may be regular-season MVP, but if the Aces win it all, it’ll be because of Gray. When the Aces are firing on all cylinders, it’s because Gray is doing Point Gawd things. We caught a glimpse of that in the Commissioner’s Cup when Gray commanded the offense against the Sky, beating out her teammates for the game MVP. Despite a valiant defensive effort from Wilson, Gray was still that catalyst.
What’s your Finals prediction?
JK: The Aces beat the Sky in four games. Sure, Becky Hammon keeps her rotation tight—arguably too tight. But if you had four All-Stars plus Chelsea Gray in your starting lineup, wouldn’t you? The Sky are good enough to take a game, obviously. Maybe even two. But in what universe does the tortilla-slapping team lose???
WJ: The Aces beat the Sun in five games. Last year, I incorrectly predicted this exact result, but I think we actually get it this year. However, this will be the third consecutive year the Sun compete for a title without a key player: Jonquel Jones opted out in 2020; Alyssa Thomas suffered an Achilles’ tear in ’21; and Jasmine Thomas has been inactive since May with an ACL tear. While I believe this year’s squad will give the Aces all they can handle, Las Vegas will win a series-clinching Game 5 to secure the franchise’s first title and a championship in Hammon’s first season as coach.
ES: Aces over Sun in five games. I had these two teams as the last ones standing in my preseason pick, but I am switching my winner. It is tough to count the Sky out to repeat, but the Sun have momentum on their side. The Aces will also have to get past some tough competition, but they are battle-tested behind Hammon’s leadership and have the pieces to win the title.
CK: Aces beat the Sky in four games. If the Aces can present a playoff defense even close to as solid as their offense has been this season, they should be able to go all the way. However, I think the Sky’s veteran combination of Courtney Vandersloot and Candace Parker won’t make this a walk in the park.
AS: Aces beat the Sky in five games. These two teams look the strongest on their sides of the bracket. The Sky look primed to make it back to the biggest stage, and the Aces seem hungry to get that first title. They’ve met three times, including the Commissioner’s Cup, and each one has been entertaining, including a record-breaking 28-point Sky comeback. Candace Parker vs. A’ja Wilson. Kahleah Copper vs. Kelsey Plum. Chelsea Gray vs. Allie Quigley. It doesn’t get much better than that.
