As Russian military activity moves nearer the Ukrainian border with Nato, the potential for direct confrontation between Russia and the alliance increases. On March 13, Russian aircraft reportedly fired rockets at the Yavoriv International Center for Peacekeeping and Security, 20km from Ukraine’s border with Poland, a Nato member.
The possibility of a unit from the Russian or Belarusian military stumbling across a border is also high. Mistakes happen in all military organisations, something shown starkly in recent days when India accidentally launched a missile into Pakistan – two nuclear armed nations in a state of high tension. The possibility of retaliation by Pakistan was significant, but unlike in Ukraine there is no open conflict to confuse the situation. Had such an event occurred between Poland and Russian forces in Ukraine, for example, it’s unlikely that the Polish government would have been convinced the missile launch had been a mistake.
Concern regarding Russia’s intentions is at a higher level in the eastern nations of Nato than those to the west. On March 15, the prime ministers of Poland, Slovenia and the Czech Republic risked a train ride into Ukraine to meet the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, in Kyiv. Those countries face the risk of being next in line if Russian expansionism continues – as some expect it to. Vladimir Putin’s statements appear to threaten the Baltic states, and he seems to want to re-establish Russia’s dominance over other neighbouring nations which was lost with the fall of the Soviet Union. Those states have substantial minorities of ethnic Russians and have experienced unrest in the past few years.
