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Rich Asplund

Expectations for Ample Global Coffee Supplies Pressure Prices

Ice USDA Brazil Vietnam

September arabica coffee (KCU25) Friday closed down -1.90 (-0.62%), and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) closed down -4 (-0.11%).

Coffee prices settled lower on Friday, with arabica coffee posting a 6-3/4 month low.  The outlook for abundant coffee supplies is undercutting prices.   On Wednesday, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast that Brazil's 2025/26 coffee production will increase by 0.5% year-over-year (y/y) to 65 million bags and that Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee output will rise by 6.9% y/y to a 4-year high of 31 million bags.  Brazil is the world's largest producer of arabica coffee, and Vietnam is the world's largest producer of robusta coffee.

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