The upcoming by-election in Rutherglen and Hamilton West presents more of a challenge for Labour than the SNP due to the expectation that Sir Keir Starmer’s party will win, a pollster has said.
Mark Diffley said Labour failing to win the seat, near Glasgow, would “diminish their hopes” for the general election expected next year.
Polling numbers currently point to a likely win for Anas Sarwar’s Scottish Labour, he said, noting that much would be read into the size of any victory.
The by-election has been triggered by a successful petition to recall current MP Margaret Ferrier, who broke coronavirus rules.
Mr Diffley took part in an online discussion alongside Kezia Dugdale – the former Scottish Labour leader who now leads the John Smith Centre at Glasgow University – which was organised by Charlotte Street Partners.
He said: “I would argue it’s probably, marginally, a bigger challenge for Labour than it is for the SNP for a couple of reasons.
“We’re kind of primed now to think that Labour are going to win.
“A lot of this is about expectations, the expectation now is that Labour will win.
“So I think if Labour don’t it will feel like – it will be – quite a big loss.”
He said the seat is the fourth most vulnerable constituency in terms of SNP/Labour marginals.
Based on the 2019 general election result, a swing of at least 5% would see it fall into Labour’s hands.
The pollster said Labour “probably will win” but the size of its majority will be significant.
Mr Diffley added: “If Labour can’t win this seat then it really does diminish their hopes next year.
“But I think both Anas (Sarwar) and Humza (Yousaf) have got both a lot to gain and a lot to lose.”
He said the First Minister should see the by-election as an opportunity to “get on the front foot and test his mettle” after a difficult start to his leadership of the SNP.
Ms Dugdale said the by-election will take place against a backdrop of “disengagement”, noting the recall petition only narrowly passed the threshold to trigger a vote.
She said both Mr Yousaf and Mr Sarwar will be “nervous” about the vote, highlighting it is the first “significant” by-election in Scotland for some time.
Labour faces a choice in its strategy over whether to make the by-election about criticism of the SNP or the Conservatives, she said.
Ms Dugdale said: “It’s not clear to me yet which of these two enemies they’re going to pick.
“But I do think they need to pick one and stick with it.”
The SNP’s strategy will be to talk about Scottish independence to appeal to their 2019 voters, she said, while attacking Sir Keir’s stance on issues like the two-child benefit cap.
