There is no dull moment in electoral politics. First, it’s campaigning, then voting and finally the results. In between, there is another interesting segment that keeps TV studios and party offices abuzz: the entry of exit polls. Those who are trailing, dismiss them. And those who are winning, feel vindicated.
Just like the last assembly elections in Karnataka, Janata Dal (Secular) will emerge a kingmaker, predicted five of the ten exit polls. Four have predicted that the Congress will cross the majority mark of 113 in the house of 224. One exit poll has forecast majority for the BJP.
Till 5 pm today, 65.65 percent of voters turned up at polling booths.
In the previous polls, the BJP had emerged the largest party with 104 MLAs. The Congress won 76 and JD(S) 37 and three Independents. The Congress and JD(S) formed the government. A year later, the BJP poached 17 MLAs from the two parties and formed the government.
India Today-Axis My India has predicted that the Congress will form the government on its own with 122-140 seats. The BJP will be reduced to 62-80 seats while JD(S) may bag 20-25 seats. The Congress will get 43% of the votes polled, while the BJP can get 35%.
If News 24-Today’s Chankaya is to be believed, the Congress will romp home with 120 seats.
ABP News-C voter has given 100 to 112 seats to the Congress, 83-95 to the BJP and 21-29 to JD(S). Republic TV-P Marq predicted that the Congress will fall short of a majority with 94-108 seats, and the BJP could barely cross the 100-mark. JD(S) will get 24-32 seats.
Times Now-ETG has shared definite numbers. The Congress will just cross the majority mark at 113 and the BJP will manage just 85. Times Now has given 23 seats to JD(S) and three to Independent candidates.
TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat has bet on the Congress as the single largest party with 99-109 MLAs. The BJP will fall short of the century. If true, the Congress will require the support of the JD(S), who is predicted to win 21-26 seats.
Zee News-Matrize has predicted a similar trend: 103-118 for the Congress; 79-94 for the BJP; and 25-33 for JD(S).
Two exit polls forecast that the BJP will get more seats than the Congress.
According to News Nation-CGS, the BJP will bag 114 seats and the Congress 86. The JD(S) is likely to get 21. The regional Suvarna News-Jan Ki Baat has given 94-117 seats to the BJP, the Congress 91-106 and JD(S) 14-24.
In the high voltage election, issues of inflation, corruption, controversial statement by the Congress and proposed ban on the Bajrang Dal ruled the narrative. The Congress has urged voters to send at least 120 of its MLAs to the assembly to prevent horse trading by the BJP. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, towards the end of the campaigning, tried to revive the BJP with back-to-back rallies and roadshows. Was Modi successful? For that, you have to wait till May 13.
Update at 11.56 am, May 11: The headline of this report erroneously mentioned that five exit polls predicted a bigger tally for the Congress. This has been corrected.
Newslaundry is a reader-supported, ad-free, independent news outlet based out of New Delhi. Support their journalism, here.
