Examining recent fantasy football ADP data

Every fantasy football draft season creates what is known as “average draft position” data (ADP), which gamers can utilize to help find trends and get a feel for current valuation tendencies.

It’s a fair way for novice players to relate positional value and also contrast how other drafters perceive worth vs. other positions. That said, it’s easy to get caught up in the numbers and fixate too much on them.

Don’t become enamored with the raw data, especially if you’re unable to validate the source material. For example, mock drafters may not be as likely to put forth earnest effort and/or could be willing to take wild risks in relation to making picks when that actually count for something.

Utilizing ADP data as guidelines is fine, but getting wrapped up in strictly adhering to them will get you in trouble. It’s always a positive to know whereabouts players tend to get selected within a few rounds’ margin or to develop a feel for positional runs — such as how many of the safe QB1s or No. 1 tight ends go in the first eight rounds, on average. ADP never should be treated as the be all, end all.

With that out of the way, here’s commentary from the most recent ADP chart from RTSports.com. The data used comes from 12-team, PPR drafts between July 21 to July 27. Players in green are significant movers upward, whereas those highlighted in red have drastically fallen of late.

Pick	Rnd	Player	Pos	Team	Bye	Notes
1.61	1	Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	13
1.83	1	Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	9
3.17	1	Ja’Marr Chase	WR	CIN	7
4.52	1	Austin Ekeler	RB	LAC	5
6.35	1	Cooper Kupp	WR	LAR	10
7.81	1	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	10
8.01	1	Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	11
8.15	1	Saquon Barkley	RB	NYG	13	Holdout threat is gone after signing new one-year deal
8.28	1	Tyreek Hill	WR	MIA	10
10.57	1	Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	11	Contractual situation seems to have building frustration with the organization
10.95	1	Nick Chubb	RB	CLE	5
12.69	2	CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	7
15.45	2	Stefon Diggs	WR	BUF	13
15.50	2	Josh Jacobs	RB	LV	13	Lengthy holdout expected, perhaps into the preseason
15.64	2	Tony Pollard	RB	DAL	7
16.11	2	A.J. Brown	WR	PHI	10
17.70	2	Davante Adams	WR	LV	13
18.68	2	Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	7	May slip a spot or two coming up after suffering a minor injury in camp
20.18	2	Derrick Henry	RB	TEN	7
20.33	2	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	9
20.50	2	Josh Allen	QB	BUF	13
20.57	2	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	11	Patriots’ overtures toward signing another RB is disconcerting
21.33	2	Patrick Mahomes	QB	KC	10
24.56	3	Najee Harris	RB	PIT	6
26.73	3	Breece Hall	RB	NYJ	7	Dalvin Cook visiting on 7/27 sends a clear message over Hall’s health
27.31	3	Jaylen Waddle	WR	MIA	10
27.51	3	DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	10
27.52	3	Jalen Hurts	QB	PHI	10
28.47	3	Chris Olave	WR	NO	11
30.68	3	Travis Etienne	RB	JAX	9
31.54	3	Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	13
33.80	3	Kenneth Walker III	RB	SEA	5
34.45	3	Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	9
36.02	4	Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	7	Should start to fall a few spots after suffering calf strain in practice
36.87	4	Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	7
37.74	4	Dameon Pierce	RB	HOU	7
37.97	4	Joe Mixon	RB	CIN	7
39.94	4	D.K. Metcalf	WR	SEA	5
42.17	4	Miles Sanders	RB	CAR	7
42.38	4	Amari Cooper	WR	CLE	5
42.43	4	Aaron Jones	RB	GB	6
42.48	4	Lamar Jackson	QB	BAL	13
43.99	4	Deebo Samuel	WR	SF	9
44.56	4	T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	13
45.03	4	J.K. Dobbins	RB	BAL	13	Mystery absence continues to drive his value down; tread carefully
45.52	4	Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	14
48.17	5	Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	5
48.57	5	Alexander Mattison	RB	MIN	13
49.88	5	Keenan Allen	WR	LAC	5
50.87	5	Rachaad White	RB	TB	5
51.39	5	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	TEN	7
51.53	5	Dalvin Cook	RB	FA	13	Awfully large investment for a guy who is bound to share significant touches wherever he signs
52.90	5	Justin Fields	QB	CHI	13
53.31	5	Calvin Ridley	WR	JAX	9
55.37	5	D’Andre Swift	RB	PHI	10
57.12	5	Cam Akers	RB	LAR	10
57.28	5	George Kittle	TE	SF	9
60.85	6	James Conner	RB	ARI	14
62.14	6	Christian Watson	WR	GB	6
62.50	6	Javonte Williams	RB	DEN	9	Cleared for camp and will avoid the PUP; still could be overvalued, however
63.57	6	D.J. Moore	WR	CHI	13
64.23	6	Jerry Jeudy	WR	DEN	9
64.24	6	Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAX	9
64.40	6	Mike Williams	WR	LAC	5
65.35	6	Christian Kirk	WR	JAX	9	Seemingly overvalued if Calvin Ridley and Evan Engram ADPs prove true
65.73	6	Isiah Pacheco	RB	KC	10	Coming along nicely from two offseason surgeries
67.43	6	Chris Godwin	WR	TB	5
67.81	6	Drake London	WR	ATL	11
68.74	6	Darren Waller	TE	NYG	13
69.02	6	Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	11
71.18	6	David Montgomery	RB	DET	9
71.81	6	James Cook	RB	BUF	13
72.03	7	Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	10
73.79	7	Michael Pittman Jr.	WR	IND	11
74.11	7	Tyler Lockett	WR	SEA	5
75.41	7	Antonio Gibson	RB	WAS	14
75.66	7	Brandon Aiyuk	WR	SF	9
77.52	7	AJ Dillon	RB	GB	6
80.49	7	Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	11	Seeing slight bump after reaching a plea deal but still a facing possible suspension
81.33	7	Diontae Johnson	WR	PIT	6
81.50	7	Mike Evans	WR	TB	5	Tough to justify how undervalued he has been all summer, even with a shaky QB situation
82.86	7	Marquise Brown	WR	ARI	14
85.40	8	George Pickens	WR	PIT	6
85.52	8	Deshaun Watson	QB	CLE	5
87.40	8	Brian Robinson Jr.	RB	WAS	14	Sound value for an RB3 if you miss out on the more obvious options
88.53	8	Jamaal Williams	RB	NO	11
90.55	8	Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	7
91.23	8	De’Von Achane	RB	MIA	10
92.55	8	Khalil Herbert	RB	CHI	13
93.46	8	Kadarius Toney	WR	KC	10	Torn knee cartilage WR puts Week 1 in jeopardy; stock will plummet once news catches up
93.92	8	Jordan Addison	WR	MIN	13
94.04	8	Treylon Burks	WR	TEN	7	Seeing a dip in his ADP after DeAndre Hopkins signing; offering strong WR3 value
94.15	8	Samaje Perine	RB	DEN	9	Small decline thanks to Javonte Williams being healthy enough to avoid PUP
96.34	9	Evan Engram	TE	JAX	9
96.61	9	Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	6
99.38	9	Jahan Dotson	WR	WAS	14
99.44	9	Zach Charbonnet	RB	SEA	5
99.61	9	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	5
99.84	9	Rashaad Penny	RB	PHI	10
101.44	9	Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	9
102.30	9	Brandin Cooks	WR	DAL	7	Pretty sweet value this late in drafts
103.64	9	Tua Tagovailoa	QB	MIA	10
104.57	9	David Njoku	TE	CLE	5	Continues to be overvalued
105.18	9	Michael Thomas	WR	NO	11	Could see his ADP rise with a healthy showing in camp
105.61	9	Damien Harris	RB	BUF	13
109.01	10	Daniel Jones	QB	NYG	13
112.09	10	Gabriel Davis	WR	BUF	13
113.88	10	San Francisco 49ers	DEF	SF	9
114.06	10	Elijah Mitchell	RB	SF	9
114.40	10	D’Onta Foreman	RB	CHI	13	Appears to be the third wheel between Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson
115.35	10	Odell Beckham Jr.	WR	BAL	13
115.56	10	Kirk Cousins	QB	MIN	13
116.94	10	Jared Goff	QB	DET	9
119.30	10	Jerick McKinnon	RB	KC	10
119.30	10	JuJu Smith-Schuster	WR	NE	11	If healthy, he presents a worthwhile gamble
119.58	10	Elijah Moore	WR	CLE	5
120.02	11	Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	13
120.26	11	Geno Smith	QB	SEA	5
122.07	11	Aaron Rodgers	QB	NYJ	7
125.13	11	Chigoziem Okonkwo	TE	TEN	7
125.36	11	Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	7	Presents tremendous value in PPR, although it seems like gamers are starting to catch on
125.95	11	Philadelphia Eagles	DEF	PHI	10
126.93	11	Jameson Williams	WR	DET	9	DET acquired Denzel Mims, who offers a similar skill set. Use that to your advantage to stash Williams
128.04	11	Quentin Johnston	WR	LAC	5
128.81	11	Justin Tucker	K	BAL	13
131.66	11	Anthony Richardson	QB	IND	11
132.88	12	Kareem Hunt	RB	FA	5
133.75	12	Jaylen Warren	RB	PIT	6
134.81	12	Russell Wilson	QB	DEN	9
135.39	12	Adam Thielen	WR	CAR	7	Thielen’s stock continues to climb as Bryce Young’s reputation builds
135.78	12	Allen Lazard	WR	NYJ	7
136.40	12	Tyler Allgeier	RB	ATL	11
136.41	12	Kendre Miller	RB	NO	11	Lingering recovery from knee injury has him falling, in addition to Alvin Kamara accepting plea deal
136.65	12	Tank Bigsby	RB	JAX	9	Solidifying himself as a primary backup with a possible role near the goal line; nice value buy
137.62	12	Devin Singletary	RB	HOU	7
139.44	12	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	FA	7
140.42	12	Dallas Cowboys	DEF	DAL	7
142.64	12	Rondale Moore	WR	ARI	14
143.34	12	Raheem Mostert	RB	MIA	10	Miami appears to be out of the Dalvin Cook sweepstakes, which bodes well for Mostert
143.39	12	Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	13	Practicing at three positions and drawing praise. Bump from Rashod Bateman on PUP
145.49	13	Greg Dulcich	TE	DEN	9
146.49	13	Donovan Peoples-Jones	WR	CLE	5
146.84	13	Rashod Bateman	WR	BAL	13	Placed on PUP while recovering from foot injury
147.67	13	New England Patriots	DEF	NE	11
148.65	13	Tyler Higbee	TE	LAR	10
148.70	13	Leonard Fournette	RB	FA	5
149.96	13	Cole Kmet	TE	CHI	13
150.30	13	Nico Collins	WR	HOU	7
152.68	13	Daniel Carlson	K	LV	13
153.02	13	Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	9	Trending in the right direction to become the team’s starting tight end
153.60	13	Buffalo Bills	DEF	BUF	13
154.43	13	Derek Carr	QB	NO	11
155.28	13	Tyjae Spears	RB	TEN	7	Awesome price point for a handcuff or independent RB5 buy
157.01	14	Romeo Doubs	WR	GB	6	Has been Jordan Love’s go-to guy this offseason; should be trending upward soon
158.09	14	Skyy Moore	WR	KC	10	Benefits greatly from Kadarius Toney’s knee injury; will continue to fly up boards
158.22	14	Roschon Johnson	RB	CHI	13	Criminally undervalued as he’s in a competition for the RB1 role
159.26	14	Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	7
159.39	14	Matthew Stafford	QB	LAR	10
160.54	14	Cordarrelle Patterson	RB	ATL	11	Slowly trending upward due to potential pass-catching role
160.71	14	Jakobi Meyers	WR	LV	13
161.24	14	Kenneth Gainwell	RB	PHI	10	Nice spot to take a gamble on him being behind two fragile RBs
161.79	14	Tyler Bass	K	BUF	13
164.82	14	K.J. Osborn	WR	MIN	13
165.51	14	Baltimore Ravens	DEF	BAL	13
165.74	14	Irv Smith Jr.	TE	CIN	7
166.55	14	Jeff Wilson	RB	MIA	10	De’Von Achane impacts Raheem Mostert more, which isn’t being reflected in ADP data
168.55	15	Darnell Mooney	WR	CHI	13
168.79	15	Michael Mayer	TE	LV	13
169.12	15	Evan McPherson	K	CIN	7
169.14	15	Jerome Ford	RB	CLE	5	Oddly, he’s falling when he should be rising. One to watch in camp
169.57	15	Tyler Boyd	WR	CIN	7
170.70	15	Jacksonville Jaguars	DEF	JAX	9
171.17	15	Jordan Love	QB	GB	6
172.53	15	Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	11	Quickly going from sneaky sleeper to risky depth in a crowded TE room
173.80	15	Michael Carter	RB	NYJ	7
174.69	15	Jonathan Mingo	WR	CAR	7
175.61	15	Jason Myers	K	SEA	5
178.58	15	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	RB	KC	10
178.59	15	Joshua Kelley	RB	LAC	5
178.66	15	Kyler Murray	QB	ARI	14	Ever so slightly crawling up boards as he’s receiving more positive health reports
178.89	15	Harrison Butker	K	KC	10
179.47	15	Wan’Dale Robinson	WR	NYG	13	Still not healthy and may not be for some time yet
179.59	15	Gus Edwards	RB	BAL	13
179.79	15	Kansas City Chiefs	DEF	KC	10
179.92	15	Jalin Hyatt	WR	NYG	13
180.29	16	Bryce Young	QB	CAR	7
180.38	16	Zay Jones	WR	JAX	9
180.56	16	Kenny Pickett	QB	PIT	6
181.25	16	Parris Campbell	WR	NYG	13
181.53	16	Chase Brown	RB	CIN	7
182.46	16	New York Jets	DEF	NYJ	7
182.59	16	Gerald Everett	TE	LAC	5
183.25	16	Zach Evans	RB	LAR	10	Seeing his stock fall with the addition of Sony Michel, despite Evans being a far better talent
184.45	16	Tim Patrick	WR	DEN	9
184.71	16	Miami Dolphins	DEF	MIA	10
185.89	16	Taysom Hill	TE	NO	11
186.74	16	Brock Purdy	QB	SF	9	Elbow is on track and should remain in the lead for San Fran’s QB1 gig
186.85	16	C.J. Stroud	QB	HOU	7
186.96	16	Mac Jones	QB	NE	11
188.21	16	Zach Ertz	TE	ARI	14
188.47	16	Ryan Tannehill	QB	TEN	7	Creeping his way up boards following the DeAndre Hopkins signing
189.06	16	Alec Pierce	WR	IND	11
189.68	16	New Orleans Saints	DEF	NO	11
189.82	16	Sam Howell	QB	WAS	14
189.97	16	Rashee Rice	WR	KC	10
190.17	16	Hunter Henry	TE	NE	11
190.60	16	Chase Edmonds	RB	TB	5
190.73	16	Cameron Dicker	K	LAC	5
191.67	16	Brandon McManus	K	JAX	9
192.29	17	D’Ernest Johnson	RB	JAX	9
192.30	17	Pierre Strong Jr.	RB	NE	11
192.68	17	Jayden Reed	WR	GB	6
192.84	17	Zack Moss	RB	IND	11	Challenging for the RB2 role behind a top back adds intrigue
193.30	17	Nathaniel Dell	WR	HOU	7
193.96	17	Pittsburgh Steelers	DEF	PIT	6
194.35	17	Denver Broncos	DEF	DEN	9
194.78	17	Isaiah Hodgins	WR	NYG	13	Starting to rise from a shaky WR corps after a quality stretch in 2022
194.84	17	Cleveland Browns	DEF	CLE	5
194.90	17	Younghoe Koo	K	ATL	11
195.01	17	Rashid Shaheed	WR	NO	11
195.75	17	Zamir White	RB	LV	13	Handcuff for Josh Jacobs and is on the upswing thanks to the star back’s holdout
196.08	17	Jimmy Garoppolo	QB	LV	13
197.12	17	Cincinnati Bengals	DEF	CIN	7
197.33	17	Michael Gallup	WR	DAL	7	Still seeing his stock dip after the acquisition of Brandin Cooks; merely a flier at this point
197.86	17	Desmond Ridder	QB	ATL	11	Sleeper potential at a bare-bones price tag
198.02	17	Jake Elliott	K	PHI	10
198.18	17	Matt Breida	RB	NYG	13	Facing competition after Eric Gray was drafted and James Robinson joined off the street
198.35	17	Jake Moody	K	SF	9
198.70	17	Brett Maher	K	DEN	9
199.00	17	Seattle Seahawks	DEF	SEA	5
199.00	17	Mike Gesicki	TE	NE	11
199.10	17	DeVante Parker	WR	NE	11
199.23	17	Greg Zuerlein	K	NYJ	7
199.84	17	Marvin Mims	WR	DEN	9
200.14	17	D.J. Chark	WR	CAR	7
200.27	17	Van Jefferson	WR	LAR	10	Tremendous upside this late after an injury-impacted 2022 dulled his ’21 shine
200.36	17	Ty Chandler	RB	MIN	13
200.47	17	Riley Patterson	K	DET	9
200.50	17	Israel Abanikanda	RB	NYJ	7	Dark horse for touches if Dalvin Cook doesn’t sign
200.72	17	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	WR	KC	10
200.77	17	Jarvis Landry	WR	FA	11
201.00	17	Washington Commanders	DEF	WAS	14
202.15	17	Mecole Hardman	WR	NYJ	7
202.30	17	Allen Robinson	WR	PIT	6	Battling Calvin Austin for the slot role; looked great in OTAs and is worth monitoring
202.53	17	Hunter Renfrow	WR	LV	13
203.06	17	Terrace Marshall Jr.	WR	CAR	7	Looking at a fresh start with a clear mind following a poor start to his career
203.33	17	Luke Musgrave	TE	GB	6
203.65	17	Deuce Vaughn	RB	DAL	7
203.70	17	Robert Woods	WR	HOU	7
203.82	17	Hayden Hurst	TE	CAR	7