Is that film with butt plugs and hotdog fingers really going to win?
It is. Everything Everywhere All at Once, the madcap multiverse comedy in which Michelle Yeoh plays a fed-up launderette owner who accesses different versions of herself to save the world (and defeat Jamie Lee Curtis’s villainously dowdy tax inspector) now looks a lock for best picture. It’s won all the key awards in the run-up, broke records at the Screen Actors Guild awards last Sunday and an auction of props on Friday raised more than half a million dollars.
Wow! It must be fantastically good!
Well … how do I put this? Remember how last year The Power of the Dog, Jane Campion’s tense homoerotic western, was pipped to the post by Coda, which looked like something the Hallmark channel put out on a wet Wednesday? The best picture doesn’t always win best picture. Everything Everywhere has split opinion. Some like it for its originality and spunk, quirky anime-inspired visual panache and absurdist humour. Others find it dim, derivative, unfunny, repetitive, overlong, smug and insufferable.
Oh. So why will it win?
Voters love that it isn’t a spin-off or sequel. It’s long been perceived as the underdog, even as it’s moved into pole position. That’s because it has indie edge: distributed by groovy US outfit A24, rather than one of the big studios. The film is also female-led and conspicuously inclusive – Yeoh is the first Asian woman up for best actress; two of her co-stars of Asian heritage are also nominated for supporting roles. And it’s – whisper it – popular with real people. Populist, even: a flashy fanboy entertainment much closer to Marvel than most of the competition.
So it’ll be the first superhero movie to win best picture?
Essentially, yes. It shares a sensibility with the wackier end of that genre – as well as, crucially, a fanbase. It premiered not at Cannes or Venice but South by Southwest. The marketing has leant relentlessly on memes. Young people like it, cool people like it, nerds like it: all key target demographics for the ailing Oscars. A precedent will be set.
Hang on, wasn’t The Fabelmans supposed to sweep the board?
Last year, maybe. Times have changed. And the likely wipeout for Steven Spielberg’s drama about his parents’ divorce would indicate the Oscars are no longer in thrall to big beasts of the industry – however brilliant their films. It also shows the curtain is closing on movies about movies being awards catnip. But if you think The Fabelmans has fared badly, spare a thought for Sam Mendes’ Empire of Light and Alejandro G Iñárritu’s Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths – two other autobiographical films out this year by much-garlanded directors about the magic of cinema. Both wound up with one nomination each (cinematography).
OK. I’ve seen the 1930 Oscar-winning All Quiet on the Western Front, and the 1979 version, too. Do I still need to see the new version?
Sure. It’s pretty easy – on Netflix – and it might yet pull some sort of repeat of the Baftas, where it won seven awards, including best picture – a record for a film not in English. Edward Berger’s trenches saga is doing a lot of heavy lifting this year to defend awards bodies against accusations they are continuing to ghettoise foreign language films. Watch out next Sunday for a very warm reception to a performance of Naatu Naatu, the big tune from Bollywood hit RRR: a film everyone in the industry has raved about, yet no one seems to have voted for.
What’s the tightest race?
Best actor. Austin Butler has been hoovering up the prizes recently as Elvis, elbowing The Whale’s Brendan Fraser into second place and sometime-favourite Colin Farrell into third.
So no chance for Bill Nighy?
Afraid not. Ditto the other best actor contender, Paul Mescal. Still, terrific that Living and Aftersun get mentions, and that those two men are among the 16 (from a possible 20 spots across four acting categories) first-timers up for acting awards this year.
Good news for diversity, right?
Yes and no. You could interpret that as evidence of star fatigue (Tom Cruise and Hugh Jackman were snubbed) and the fruits of a genuine championing of fresh talent. But behind the dazzle, there’s a bit of old hat. Living, after all, is a film that caters generously to Hollywood’s idea of Englishness, just as The Banshees of Inisherin has been lapped up in Beverly Hills for its fabulous Irishness. Only one of the leading performance candidates (Yeoh) is a person of colour, and many Black films have been unexpectedly shut out, most prominently, two directed by women which centre female stories (The Woman King and Till).
So are the Oscars – and Baftas – to blame?
It depends if you believe Viola Davis’s performance was definitely better than those of the women who were nominated. If so: yes. If not: bear in mind awards bodies can implement measures to mitigate imbalances – and Bafta has gone above and beyond in doing so – but they can only reward or snub films that get made. Correcting embedded cultural prejudice is not in their remit. Blaming the Oscars is like shouting at the postman for what’s on the stamps.
But surely the industry has changed? What about #MeToo?
What about it? It seems a long time ago when female actors boycotted red carpets and said nobody should ever again ask what they’re wearing. Now, the awards circus is firmly back in business, and the sorts of films people are going to see – and voters are rewarding – are not the likes of She Said, about the female reporters who led the Harvey Weinstein investigation. Instead, it’s blue wet men (Avatar: The Way of Water, grossing $2.2bn, four Oscar nominations) and an old bloke in a fast plane (Top Gun: Maverick, grossing $1.5bn, six Oscar nominations).
Surely Top Gun will get something? Spielberg said it saved cinema!
No. Perhaps one for sound or something. The shadow of Scientology still looms large over Cruise and Hollywood is conscious that further revelations about the church could tarnish their association further. Jimmy Kimmel’s trailer for the telecast was a Top Gun homage – but it didn’t feature Cruise himself. The Oscars, and the industry, will want to give the film a slap on the back, but steer clear of a full embrace.
Oh God, there’s going to be endless slap jokes, aren’t there?
There are.
• This article was amended on 5 March 2023. An earlier version said that two of Michelle Yeoh’s Asian co-stars (Ke Huy Quan and Stephanie Hsu) were also nominated for supporting roles. This should have said “of Asian heritage”.
