Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love has not been particularly good through his first five games as the franchise’s new starter, but situation absolutely matters and it’s worth examining all the things that have gone wrong around him to open the 2023 season.
Broadly speaking, little has gone to plan for the Packers offense without even mentioning Love. Specifically, foundational pieces are injured or not working or some combination of the two.
Love has been an inaccurate thrower of the football. He hasn’t dominated from clean pockets. He’s struggled to operate under pressure. And the negative plays — specifically turnovers — are starting to pile up as the pressure has increased. Love must play better coming out of the bye week. But the situation around him must also improve drastically.
It would be easy to call these “excuses,” but extenuating circumstances are certainly in play for Jordan Love. Here’s a look at everything that has crumbled around him through five games.
David Bakhtiari, one and done
Having an All-Pro and elite pass blocker at left tackle was rightfully viewed as a tremendous asset for a first-year starting quarterback entering 2023. Pressure affects all quarterbacks, but especially inexperienced quarterbacks, and having David Bakhtiari at left tackle for the majority of the season would have resolved any concern over pressure from Love’s blindside. And in Week 1, that idea played out exactly to plan: Bakhtiari pitched a shutout, Love was rarely under pressure and the Packers passing game thrived. But Bakhtiari’s 2023 season ended after just one game. He had a scope on his surgically repaired knee and will need a more significant surgery to (hopefully) correct the long-running issues with the joint. Instead of having Bakhtiari hold down left tackle, second-year offensive tackle Rasheed Walker is learning on the job.
Offensive line, strength to question mark
The crumbling of the offensive line began with Bakhtiari’s exit after one game. But even since Week 1, the Packers offensive line has taken hit after hit. Left guard Elgton Jenkins exited with an injury in Week 2, missed two games and only just returned wearing a brace on his knee in Week 5. Right tackle Zach Tom has played through a knee injury in back-to-back weeks. Right guard Jon Runyan Jr. injured his ankle early in Week 4 and played through the injury in Week 5. The offensive line, once a major strength entering the season, is now a big-time question mark. After being under pressure on just 12 dropbacks through the first two games (six per game), Love has been under pressure on 42 dropbacks over the last three (14 per game). That’s tough for a passing game that wants to go downfield. And the run game, which will be addressed next, hasn’t gotten off the ground. Tough combo for a young quarterback.
Run game, quantifiably terrible
The Packers are averaging 3.5 yards per attempt in the run game, which ranks 26th in the NFL. Overall, Packers running backs have run 94 times for just 295 yards, or just 3.13 yards per carry. Entering the season, Matt LaFleur said his veterans running backs and the play up front on offense would be assets the Packers could lean on. Through five games, neither running back has been productive and the run blocking has been mostly terrible. Aaron Jones played three quarters in Chicago and 20 snaps vs. the Lions, while A.J. Dillon keeps getting hit in the backfield and is struggling to create on his own. More on those two later. Overall, the Packers are an offense based in wide-zone run principles. They want to stretch defenses, create cut-back lanes and set up run-action throws off the same looks. But the foundation of the offense just isn’t working.
Aaron Jones, 17 total touches
Imagine being told before Week 1 that Jordan Love, who has run the ball 18 times in five games, would have more rushing attempts entering the bye week than Aaron Jones. That would be unbelievable, right? Well, it’s reality for the Packers. Jones has played exactly 48 snaps through five weeks. He has 14 rushing attempts and three catches. Love’s 18 rushing attempts actually beat Jones’ 17 total touches. While an unproveable hypothetical, it’s not crazy to think the Packers would have one or even two more wins (vs. Falcons? vs. Raiders?) if Jones had been available as a full-time player every week this season. He’s a game-changer, not only in terms of creating on his own behind a poor run-blocking offensive line, but also has a safety blanket for a young quarterback in the passing game. You can bet the Packers would have fewer negative runs, more explosive runs and a few less empty passing attempts with Jones on the field.
Christian Watson, 6 total touches
Christian Watson, who helped the Packers offense finally get right over the second half of last season, has played in just one game as a full-time player and has five catches and six total touches. His explosive speed — both horizontally and vertically — helps open up the entire passing game, but Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love have really only had one week to get Watson’s speed fully into the game plan. The Packers need Watson back at full strength coming out of the bye because his playmaking ability down the field and potential as a true No. 1 receiver are vital to the health of the offense. Over the last two weeks, Watson is 0-for-4 on contested catches. He caught 9-of-12 last year.
A.J. Dillon, 3.0 yards per carry
Dillon’s struggles are both an extension and primary cause of the Packers run-game issues. He’s getting hit in the backfield at a high rate, but he’s also not breaking tackles or creating yards on his own when the blocking is good enough. Dillon is a second-round pick in a contract year, and his presence as an experienced backup and change-of-pace option alongside Aaron Jones was seen as a potential strength for a team starting a first-year quarterback. But Dillon is averaging just 3.0 yards per carry and has only three catches through five games. Without Jones for 3.5 games, Dillon hasn’t taken advantage of a big opportunity and the Packers’ young offense has suffered as a result.
Rookie factor
This was a self-imposed situation by the Packers, but the inexperience around Jordan Love — and the mistakes happening as a result — have to be factored in, even if we can’t know the breadth of the mistakes made and the overall effect those mistakes are having on Love’s performance. The Packers are playing three rookie tight ends at a vital position in Matt LaFleur’s scheme, especially in the run game. It shouldn’t be surprising that blocks are being missed. Jayden Reed, Luke Musgrave and Dontayvion Wicks, all rookies, are No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 in total targets, respectively, through five weeks. It shouldn’t be surprising that the passing game remains inconsistent. Three of the most experienced players — David Bakhtiari, Aaron Jones and Christian Watson — haven’t been available. Maybe none of what’s happened so far should be a surprise.
Final thoughts
Imagine being told, without knowing anything about Jordan Love’s performance, that David Bakhtiari would play one game, the offensive line would start to crumble under the weight of injuries, the running backs would average around 3.0 yards per carry, Aaron Jones would handle 17 touches and Christian Watson would handle six touches through the first five games of the 2023 season. Wouldn’t you assume the Packers offense is terrible? And still, the Packers have scored 16 more points than the 2022 Packers through five games. That’s not to say the Packers offense has been anything approaching good, because it hasn’t. They are averaging 4.9 yards per play and scoring on 33.9 percent of drives. They aren’t throwing the ball efficiently or running the ball efficiently, and they’ve been heavily penalized and mistake prone. It’s just hard to know where they are really at on offense with all the injuries and missing pieces. The absolute worst-case scenario for the 2023 season would be not getting a complete evaluation of Jordan Love because of the circumstances. Through five games, it looks like that’s exactly where the Packers are at. The hope should be that, coming out of the bye, the Packers will get healthy at key spots and the situation around Love will improve to the point where he can be more accurately assessed as an individual. Right now, Love is a NASCAR mechanic trying to fix up a stock car missing the steering wheel and two wheels during his first race in the pitcrew. Not surprisingly, the car isn’t working and Love can do little to fix it himself until he has all the parts and the experience putting them all together the right way.
