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Sports Illustrated
Sports Illustrated
Sport
Ewan Ross-Murray

Every Club’s Route to Champions League Final Ranked From Easiest to Hardest

The last 16 draw has set the stage for the remaining phases of the Champions League as participants plan out their routes to May’s final.

Kinder to some than others, the draw has forged some tantalizing double-headed duels across the continent, but there was one particular point of interest that appeared after all the balls had been selected.

The Champions League bracket now appears rather lopsided. One half of the draw is notably tougher than the other half. The misfortune of the eight teams forced to fight on a particularly star-studded battleground has been celebrated by the remaining clubs, who boast a much simpler route to glory.

But which teams have the easiest and toughest paths to the final?


Champions League 2025–26 Knockout Bracket

The Champions League bracket.
The Champions League bracket is narrowing to a fine point. | FotMob

Routes to the Champions Legaue Final Ranked From Easiest to Hardest

8. Arsenal

Noni Madueke, Gabriel Martinelli
Arsenal have a great chance to win their first Champions League title. | Franco Arland/Getty Images

The general consensus following the draw’s conclusion was that Lady Luck shone brightly on Arsenal. The Gunners were placed on the “Blue Path,” which is the much more straightforward of the two routes to the final, and were handed a clash with Bayer Leverkusen in the last 16—their reward for finishing first in the league phase.

Surprise package Sporting CP await in the quarterfinal, before a battle with one of Barcelona or Atlético Madrid. Tough fixtures, yes, but they could have been much harder.

Round Potential Opponents
Quarterfinal Sporting
Semifinal Barcelona, Atlético Madrid
Final PSG, Liverpool, Real Madrid, Bayern

7. Sporting CP

Luis Suárez
Sporting CP were surprise automatic last 16 qualifiers. | Maciej Rogowski/Eurasia Sport Images/Getty Images

Sporting CP fortuitously swerved Real Madrid in the last 16 and were instead drawn against fellow over-performers Bodø/Glimt. While that proved a harder fixture on the field than on paper, it was the favorable choice for the Lisbon giants.

A quarterfinal against Arsenal is probably as far as Sporting can realistically expect to go.

Round Potential Opponents
Quarterfinal Arsenal
Semifinal Barcelona, Atlético Madrid
Final PSG, Liverpool, Real Madrid, Bayern

6. Barcelona

Lamine Yamal, Alejandro Balde
Barcelona find themselves on the easier half of the draw. | Josep LAGO/AFP/Getty Images

Things could have been much, much worse for Barça. Not only did they avoid a battle with PSG in the last 16, drawing Newcastle instead, they managed to sidestep the more difficult half of the draw—ensuring battles with the likes of Liverpool, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich won’t come until the final.

La Blaugrana thrashed Newcastle at Camp Nou to set up a rematch with Atlético Madrid, who did just knock Barça out of the Copa del Rey.

Round Potential Opponents
Quarterfinal Atlético Madrid
Semifinal Sporting, Arsenal
Final PSG, Liverpool, Real Madrid, Bayern

5. Atlético Madrid

Julián Alvarez
Atlético Madrid will be pleased with their last 16 draw. | Alberto Gardin/NurPhoto/Getty

Atlético were arguably handed the easiest tie of the last 16. Sure, Spurs boast some quality individuals, but they came into the tie in truly disastrous form and were comfortable swept past.

Diego Simeone’s side now face a cash with Barcelona, and will likely fancy their chances. The toughest test en route to the final would likely be Arsenal in a possible semifinal—the Gunners won the league phase clash with Atléti 4–0.

Round Potential Opponents
Quarterfinal Barcelona
Semifinal Bodø/Glimt, Arsenal
Final PSG, Liverpool, Real Madrid, Bayern

4. Liverpool

Arne Slot
Arne Slot would have wanted to be on the other side of the bracket. | Robbie Jay Barratt/AMA/Getty Images

Liverpool benefitted from the easier of two possible last 16 adversaries, avoiding Atlético to book a date with Galatasaray instead. However, the cost of that fortune is that they find themselves on the “Silver Path”—the side of the draw containing the bulk of heavyweights.

PSG will be their opposition at the quarterfinal stage, followed by one of Bayern Munich or Real Madrid. Given their underperformance domestically this term, there are few expectations that the six-time champions can claim number seven this term.

Round Potential Opponents
Quarterfinal PSG
Semifinal Real Madrid, Bayern
Final Barcelona, Atlético, Sporting, Arsenal

3. Bayern Munich

Harry Kane
Bayern will fancy their chances against anyone. | Wart Brinkerhof/Marcel ter Bals/DeFodi Images/Getty Images

Bayern Munich eased into the last eight after racking up 10 goals across two legs against Atalanta. Unfortunately for the German giants, Real Madrid await in the quarterfinals.

The Bundesliga champions will then have to overcome one of Liverpool or PSG in the semis. If Bayern are to win the trophy, they will have to do it the hard way.

Round Potential Opponents
Quarterfinal Real Madrid
Semifinal PSG, Liverpool
Final Barcelona, Atlético, Sporting, Arsenal

2. Paris Saint-Germain

Désiré Doué, Achraf Hakimi
PSG will be pushed hard in their title defense. | Valery HACHE/AFP/Getty Images

A repeat of last summer’s Club World Cup final was staged in the last 16, PSG facing off against the Chelsea side that demolished them. Despite the reigning European champions still operating below last term’s standards, they convincing thumped the Blues.

PSG also knocked Liverpool out of Europe last season and will have to repeat the feat in the quarterfinal, after which they would be forced to topple another big-hitter en route to the final.

Round Potential Opponents
Quarterfinal Liverpool
Semifinal Real Madrid, Bayern
Final Barcelona, Atlético, Sporting, Arsenal

1. Real Madrid

Vinicius Junior
Another Man City encounter awaits. | Ricardo Larreina/Europa Press/Getty Images

Madrid may have been underdogs heading into this year’s iteration of their reoccurring battle with City, but they made fools of all those who dismissed Los Blancos in the Champions League. Muscle memory often trumps form when it comes to the latter stages.

However, adding a 16th European title to their cabinet appears an extremely tall order this year. Álvaro Arbeloa’s performers would have to overcome three European giants to simply reach the final, where they could well face Arsenal or Clásico rivals Barcelona.

Round Potential Opponents
Quarterfinal Bayern
Semifinal PSG, Liverpool
Final Barcelona, Atlético, Sporting, Arsenal

READ THE LATEST CHAMPIONS LEAGUE NEWS, ANALYSIS AND INSIGHT FROM SI FC


This article was originally published on www.si.com as Every Club’s Route to Champions League Final Ranked From Easiest to Hardest.

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