The preseason is over. It’s time for the real thing.
Starting Sept. 7, the NFL regular season begins, with an 18-week race to the playoffs underway. And while the NFC is a wide open affair, the AFC is going to be a brawl throughout.
In the AFC, there’s the defending-champion Chiefs along with the Bengals and Bills, who have been consistent contenders over the last few years. Then there’s Aaron Rodgers and the Jets, while the Dolphins, now featuring Vic Fangio as a defensive coordinator, try to win the AFC East for the first time since 2008.
This is to say nothing of the Jaguars, Titans, Ravens, Chargers, Patriots and Steelers, who all either made the playoffs last season or weren’t eliminated until the final Sunday.
But who will qualify for the postseason this time? Let’s look at why each team could make a run, and why each has a flaw to beware.
Baltimore Ravens
Strength: Multiplicity of offense
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After years of being a run-heavy offense under coordinator Greg Roman, Baltimore’s attack will look much different under Todd Monken.
Expect quarterback Lamar Jackson to throw more than he ever has and produce his first 4,000-yard season, all while the Ravens remain a constant threat on the ground between J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Jackson.
Weakness: Defensive front
Where is the pass rush coming from? The Ravens lost veterans Jason Pierre-Paul, Calais Campbell and Justin Houston to free agency, after Houston posted a team-best 9.5 sacks in 2022.
Now, Baltimore is relying on a late-summer signing in Jadeveon Clowney and third-year edge rusher Odafe Oweh, who has eight career sacks. Big ask.
Buffalo Bills
Strength: Vertical passing game
Only the Dolphins threw for more air yards last season than the Bills, who racked up 2,694. Buffalo has a pair of electric field-stretchers in Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, to go along with an intriguing rookie in tight end Dalton Kincaid.
Also, there’s no quarterback like Josh Allen in terms of making defenses pay for playing a single-high safety look.
Weakness: Corners on the boundary
Yes, the pass rush is a big question with Von Miller on the PUP list, but he’ll return. The defensive backfield, on the other hand, has no such talent injection coming. A first-round pick in 2021, Kaiir Elam has failed to lock down a job, while Tre’Davious White wasn’t the same player last season after coming back from a torn ACL.
Right now, Buffalo is relying heavily on White to rebound, along with Dane Jackson and Christian Benford.
Cincinnati Bengals
Strength: Passing game
No team can match the Bengals when the offense looks skyward. They have an elite quarterback in Joe Burrow who can throw to stars galore in Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd.
With Higgins and Boyd both slated for free agency after this season, it could be the last year for this trio to win it all together.
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Weakness: Finishing the pass rush
The Bengals have some good individual pass-rushers in ends Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard, along with first-round pick Myles Murphy. However, it was a struggle to finish last year. The Bengals ranked 29th in sacks (30) despite a respectable pressure rate (22.4%), good for 13th in the NFL.
Perhaps the addition of Murphy helps Cincinnati get the quarterback down a few more times in 2023.
Cleveland Browns
Strength: Running game
With Nick Chubb leading the way alongside one of the league’s best offensive lines, the Browns are always going to punish on the ground. Last season, they ranked eighth in yards per carry (4.7) while checking in sixth with 2,490 total rushing yards.
Expect another monster year from Chubb as quarterback Deshaun Watson looks to rebound from an ugly six-game stint in 2022.
Weakness: Pass rush outside of Myles Garrett
Garrett has been one of the most consistent sack artists in the NFL since entering the league as the No. 1 overall pick in 2017. He has notched 74.5 sacks in that span, including 16 in each of the past two years.
However, the Browns have done a lousy job of finding a compliment, with the best options over recent years being Clowney and Olivier Vernon. Now, they’re turning to Za’Darius Smith, hoping for a devastating tandem.
Denver Broncos
Strength: Secondary
The Broncos are trying to erase the stink of last season, and if they do it, it’ll be from the secondary on out. Denver has a tandem of Pro Bowlers in corner Patrick Surtain II and safety Justin Simmons, with the former being quite possibly the standard at his position.
Weakness: Passing game
Once again, the Broncos will be without receiver Tim Patrick after a training camp injury. As a result, Denver is relying on Jerry Jeudy (once he returns from a hamstring strain) and Courtland Sutton.
This is with a new offense under coach Sean Payton, who is attempting to revive Russell Wilson’s career after he threw for 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in a 5–12 season a year ago.
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Houston Texans
Strength: Youthful secondary
If the Texans are going to be a solid team defensively, it’ll be because rookie edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. steps up immediately, and does so playing in front of a talented, young secondary.
The back end has second-year starters in safety Jalen Pitre and corner Derek Stingley Jr., both of whom can be stars under coach DeMeco Ryans’s system.
Weakness: Lack of receivers
Houston general manager Nick Caserio did rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud no favors by trading away veteran receiver Brandin Cooks this offseason. While first-year speedster Tank Dell looks promising, Stroud will be throwing to a litany of question marks including John Metchie III, Xavier Hutchinson, Noah Brown and Nico Collins.
On a related note, look for veterans Robert Woods and tight end Dalton Schultz to get plenty of targets.
Indianapolis Colts
Strength: Defensive interior
The Colts could be in for a rough year as first-year coach Shane Steichen and quarterback Anthony Richardson figure out their respective posts. However, expect the defensive interior for Indianapolis to shine with the combination of Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner.
Stewart is one of the best run-stuffers in the game, totaling nine tackles for loss last year, while Buckner is a two-time All-Pro, largely because of his pocket disruption.
Weakness: Weaponry
Without Jonathan Taylor gracing Indianapolis’ backfield, this is an offense reliant on receiver Michael Pittman Jr.—and not much else. The Colts are hoping for big things out of rookie Josh Downs and second-year man Alec Pierce, but that could be a big ask as they mature.
Frankly, Indianapolis will need Richardson to be a miracle worker at times.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Strength: Playmakers galore
When the Jaguars line up, defenses will have to pick their points of emphasis and hope for the best elsewhere. Jacksonville has an elite quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, who can hand off to 1,000-yard back Travis Etienne, or throw to Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Evan Engram or Calvin Ridley.
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Don’t be surprised if Lawrence is in the MVP conversation, and the Jaguars approach a top-five offensive ranking.
Weakness: Pass rush
If something is going to undo Jacksonville come January, it’ll be the lack of pass rush against other elite AFC quarterbacks. Linebacker Josh Allen is in the final year of his rookie deal, but he’s only notched 17.5 total sacks over the past three years.
Beyond Allen, the main hope is last year’s No. 1 pick, Travon Walker, who was limited to only 3.5 sacks across 15 games as a rookie.
Kansas City Chiefs
Strength: Passing game
Let’s not get cute. Patrick Mahomes has two seasons of over 5,000 passing yards, two Super Bowl rings and two MVPs. He also has the most innovative offensive coach in football with Andy Reid and a future first-ballot Hall of Fame tight end in Travis Kelce.
Add in the intrigue of receivers Kadarius Toney (who is reportedly good to go for Week 1 after missing camp with a knee injury), Justyn Ross and Skyy Moore, along with veteran Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and the Chiefs are loaded once more.
Weakness: Defensive line
If Chris Jones misses games, the Chiefs are going to have a problem while he’s absent. Kansas City is also without newly-acquired Charles Omenihu, who will miss the first six games via suspension. This leaves the Chiefs to rely heavily on second-year man George Karlaftis, rookie Felix Anudike-Uzomah and veteran Mike Danna.
Not an ideal scenario for a team with championship dreams.
Las Vegas Raiders
Strength: Josh Jacobs in the run game
The Raiders are trying to reinvent themselves under second-year coach Josh McDaniels, but the idea remains unclear. If Las Vegas is going to win games, it’ll be on the strength of Jacobs, who ran for a league-best 1,653 yards last season. This will open up the play-action game, giving quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo a chance to succeed.
Weakness: The defense beyond Maxx Crosby
It’s really, really difficult to make a case for Las Vegas’ defense outside of Crosby, who is one of the best pass-rushers in the game. Chandler Jones could rebound, and Tyree Wilson could be a menace off the edge, but the questions are everywhere and the obvious answers are impossible to spot.
Los Angeles Chargers
Strength: Passing attack with a new twist
The Chargers have long had a potent aerial attack with Justin Herbert at the controls. Now, though, they have new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore calling plays, while rookie receiver Quentin Johnston has been added to the mix with veterans Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.
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Oh, and running back Austin Ekeler caught 107 passes last year.
Weakness: Injury risks everywhere
This is always the big question with the Chargers. Last season alone, Herbert played through a nasty rib injury while Pro Bowl left tackle Rashawn Slater missed the final 14 games of the regular season. Then there’s edge rusher Joey Bosa and corner J.C. Jackson, who each missed 12 games. Lastly, Allen was sidelined for seven, and Williams for five, including the postseason.
It’s a problem almost every season, and one that isn’t getting better as age continues to set in.
Miami Dolphins
Strength: Speed in the passing game
Nobody has the perimeter speed of Miami, led by Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Last year, Hill lit up South Beach in his first season with the Dolphins, catching 119 passes for 1,710 yards and seven touchdowns, earning first-team All-Pro honors.
Miami can beat teams with yards after catch or the deep ball, making it almost impossible to defend in open space.
Weakness: Offensive line woes
Much like the other three teams in the AFC East, there’s a question about whether the offensive line will be able to hold up. The Dolphins desperately need star left tackle Terron Armstead to be healthy, something that has been a chore in recent years.
Across 10 seasons, Armstead has never played in every game, while missing a total of 50 tilts.
New England Patriots
Strength: One of the league’s best defenses
This may not be the group led by Ty Law, Richard Seymour and Tedy Bruschi, but don’t be surprised if the Patriots field a top-five defense this season. The edges are solid with Josh Uche and Matthew Judon, who combined for 27 sacks in 2022.
With the addition of first-round corner Christian Gonzalez to the back end, New England should put the clamps on most of its foes.
Weakness: Chunk plays in the passing game
The Patriots don’t have elite weapons on the outside, relying instead on JuJu Smith-Schuster and DeVante Parker. Additionally, Mac Jones isn’t a strong-armed quarterback compared to the Josh Allens and Patrick Mahomes of the world.
For New England to move the ball effectively, it’ll be through possession receiving and a smash-mouth running game.
New York Jets
Strength: Cornerbacks
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When you have Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed on the perimeter, your defense is going to be a problem. For the Jets, they have said duo along with Michael Carter II in the slot.
If the edge rush of rookie Will McDonald IV, Carl Lawson and John Franklin-Myers can get home with Quinnen Williams patrolling the interior, New York will have a fierce defensive unit.
Weakness: Offensive line
This is both the obvious and correct answer. New York is loaded in many places, but the offensive line is a clear and present threat to Aaron Rodgers. The Jets are searching for improvement at tackle, with Mekhi Becton on the right side and a 38-year-old Duane Brown on the left. The interior has its own questions, something that could lead to immediate pressure.
If things go bad for the Jets, the offensive line is the best bet as to why.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Strength: Pass rush across the line
The Steelers are going to be a playoff contender this year, largely because their pass rush is absurd. If Pittsburgh can line up T.J. Watt, Cam Heyward, Alex Highsmith and Markus Golden on passing downs, it’ll give any offensive coordinator nightmares.
Highsmith is a name to watch, as he quietly totaled 14.5 sacks and five forced fumbles in 2022.
Weakness: Quarterback
This isn’t so much a weakness as it is a question mark. The Steelers have a terrific defense and an offense that should, in theory, score points. But the passing game was erratic last year, with Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett combining for 12 touchdown passes total.
Pickett is almost guaranteed to be better than his five-touchdown, seven-interception line from last year, but how much better?
Tennessee Titans
Strength: Defensive front
Did you know that Denico Autry had eight sacks last year, a half-sack more than Pro Bowl teammate Jeffery Simmons posted? The Titans are loaded inside on the defensive front, while Harold Landry III is back from a torn ACL that took away his entire 2022 season.
Tennessee’s secondary is a question, but the front could help the cause by quickening the release time of opposing passers.
Weakness: Offensive line
Ryan Tannehill isn’t exactly known as a mobile quarterback, but he might need to be this season. The Titans are overhauling their line, and it has questions galore. At left tackle, Tennessee is rolling with Andre Dillard, a 2019 first-rounder who flamed out with the Eagles. Next to him is rookie first-rounder Peter Skoronski.
In short, the potential is there for a decent group, but this could also be one of the worst lines in the league with little depth as well.
